How many members are jumping ship today?

[son of baglimit]

is that the real question ?

how about ... how many bulls have now reluctantly become bears ?

how many traders/investors/1st timers have REALLY read between the lines on what is happening to the world economy, as a result of sub-prime, china's appetite, the price of commodities, the cost of global warming, inflation, interest rates etc etc.

weve had a great run, and now its time to either give some back, or get out and wait for the sign, the flag being waved, the traders having given up, the mums & dads swearing off the market (again), the fancy car leases being closed, the fancy properties being sold, the bonuses disappearing, and only realising THEN its time to get back in.

the signal will be obvious to some. but it will be some time before we see it.

 

[adobee]

This latest decline has me stumped.

I see no good reason why we were down 200 points today. People talk of recession in the US, but do you really think real estate prices in the states dictate how many new dams are built in China next year, or how many new aircraft they purchase? I don't.

And does anyone out there really think we will not see an increase in the iron ore price next year? So why are iron miners SP going down? Again, no sound reason except panic. Incidentally, was it a RIO report I was reading the other day predicting a massive copper shortage? I've read so many reports lately.

Remember the US economy contributes much less to the global economy than it did say 20 years ago. So, if it faulters the impact to the rest of us should be much less than it was 20 years ago.

I was of the assumption that alot of our metals and resources went to India and China where they turn them into cars, toys, house parts and the rest and then get back on the boat bound for the US and Aus and the rest of the world that likes cheap crap.. It isnt all staying in China..

 

[numbercruncher]

Remember the US economy contributes much less to the global economy than it did say 20 years ago. So, if it faulters the impact to the rest of us should be much less than it was 20 years ago.

The US is a 10t consumer economy, China is a 1t consumer economy, decoupling is a theory dreamed up by wildly optimistic people, and besides the "Theory" hasnt even been tested yet

 

[Aussie2Aussie]

The US is a 10t consumer economy, China is a 1t consumer economy, decoupling is a theory dreamed up by wildly optimistic people, and besides the "Theory" hasnt even been tested yet

Decoupling, I believe is real but only in the form of a lag and that will show through in the 2nd half of 2008 as it relates to our economy; the US recession and in turn the US stock market will still drag Australian equities down regardless.

 

[nioka]

The number of members jumping ship today is heavily influenced by the "lemming" factor. Take that out of the equasion and it is evident that there has been an over reaction. This is great for brokers and traders. I'll just sit and watch and thanks to AGM I had a good day anyway.

 

[wayneL]

The number of members jumping ship today is heavily influenced by the "lemming" factor.

The same reason they jumped aboard in the first place hey?

 

[Wysiwyg]

It`s how the game works ... overbought or oversold.My practice is to monitor individual stock movement and accept that market downturn fears will effect them sometimes.So i didn`t jump but I`ll be in the crowsnest if yer lookin` arhhh arrhhh.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

I find all this isolating of factors a little perplexing.....just cause Centro overgeared or US is the driver or its not the driver of China and India......

The fact is: the cost of debt is going up all around the world........that is just bad news for stocks a)stocks use debt to lower cost of capital b) interest rate rises make investments other than stocks more desirable......

People can yell at the sky as much as they want....right now the market is reprising risk and this is only the beginning...........I don't think the bellhops have given up their day trading quite yet....

For example, check out the portfolios people on this site have admitted to owning........it seems to me that an amazing proportion of them are speaking of their incredible gains with the exercise of very little investment thought.....people are hooked and its going to be a wild ride

 

[theasxgorilla]

The US is a 10t consumer economy, China is a 1t consumer economy, decoupling is a theory dreamed up by wildly optimistic people, and besides the "Theory" hasnt even been tested yet

I agree with this but only to the extent that decoupling suggests an absolute solution. At the opposite extreme to say that a 1T consumer market in China will have sweet stuff all of an impact might sound like people just trying to be a bear for the sake of being a bear. Beats talking about how things might just turn out okay for once.

 

[Real1ty]

The number of members jumping ship today is heavily influenced by the "lemming" factor. Take that out of the equasion and it is evident that there has been an over reaction. This is great for brokers and traders. I'll just sit and watch and thanks to AGM I had a good day anyway.

An over reaction?

Lemmings?

Interesting.

I can't speak for others but i myself took a lot of my profits today as i have formed my opinion based on a lot of the information i have read and my experience from years of trading.

An over reaction?
Where did you actually expect the market to be at the close today?

It was lower than i expected but i certainly expected it to have a very bad day with more to come.

If i am right in my views there will be many more "over reactions" to come.

What do you think will happen to the Australian market IF the Australian banks hit us with a News Years Gift of a rate hike?

 

[Bushman]

The same reason they jumped aboard in the first place hey?

Not sure who Ambrose Evans is but he is right - credit is the fundemental that lies at the base of the pyramid.

The speed with which Centro unravelled today was staggering. Believe me...up to last Thursday it was business as usual. The underlying property business is sound. But 'all of a sudden' not a single bank will lend to a ASX50 company. Wrong deal at the wrong time and now it looks like the game is up. Cash is king and many companies were doing fat deals up until July.

This has seriously spooked me I must say (as first hand experience often does). There are guys at work who lost a hell of a lot today in the blink of an eye. Managment had the great idea to offer margin loans against the employee share plan. Luckily I declined but some of my mates are hurting and they have kids. Merry f**ken Christmas brought to you by the US of A.

So when you have lots of debt on the balance sheet, fundamentals are an illusion at the moment. Bye bye, baby. Tread carefully guys.

I sold 25% awhile ago. I have hung on to a few where the 'fundamentals' are good but that should still be the case in 6 months or however long it takes for this to be supported again by a functioning credit market. So I might exit a few more hands over the next few weeks.

Replace Centro with Merril Lynch or Citi Group, and the music will stop playing. Then today will feel like a tea party.

 

[tronic72]

is that the real question ?

how about ... how many bulls have now reluctantly become bears ?

how many traders/investors/1st timers have REALLY read between the lines on what is happening to the world economy, as a result of sub-prime, china's appetite, the price of commodities, the cost of global warming, inflation, interest rates etc etc.

weve had a great run, and now its time to either give some back, or get out and wait for the sign, the flag being waved, the traders having given up, the mums & dads swearing off the market (again), the fancy car leases being closed, the fancy properties being sold, the bonuses disappearing, and only realising THEN its time to get back in.

the signal will be obvious to some. but it will be some time before we see it.

Um yeah. It is. Why else would I have asked it??

I'm not a Bear or a Bull. I think sticking to one or the other is an recipe for failure. The Market is and has been like this for the last year. Great ups and big downs. I think in this climate Bear & Bull analogies are much less relevant.

my 2c

 

[theasxgorilla]

People can yell at the sky as much as they want....right now the market is reprising risk and this is only the beginning...........I don't think the bellhops have given up their day trading quite yet....

It's a long way from this. I'd even go so far as to say that people are almost used to the volatility. What doesn't kill you might not actually make you stronger but it probably makes you think you are. Today's fall marked a lower high, althought not on a weekly chart based on closing prices. THAT I'd like to see, watch Friday's close for confirmation that this isn't another tail. If it's another tail then I expect the 'no worries' outlook to continue a bit longer still.

 

[tronic72]

An over reaction?

Lemmings?

Interesting.

I can't speak for others but i myself took a lot of my profits today as i have formed my opinion based on a lot of the information i have read and my experience from years of trading.

An over reaction?
Where did you actually expect the market to be at the close today?

It was lower than i expected but i certainly expected it to have a very bad day with more to come.

If i am right in my views there will be many more "over reactions" to come.

What do you think will happen to the Australian market IF the Australian banks hit us with a News Years Gift of a rate hike?

Couldn't agree more. I for one don't jump on or off a "stock ship" without doing my homework. The Market was due a correction and I think this one could continue for a few more days.

I think we may be in for a much bumpier ride.

Centro controls 13 billion worth of property. If they can't get some quick sales by February they will be stuffed. Even if they do it "may" be at fire-sale prices which will murder their bottom line for years to come. One positive could be for some of the more cashed up competitors who could pick up some bargain. If companies like MAQ and AFG weren't so hard to analyse the Market would have a better idea of how much "funny money" these companies have tied up. As they stand at the moment, we only find out when the $hit starts to bash into the Air conditioner.

 

[Real1ty]

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures dropped after Citigroup Inc. cut its rating on nine U.S. banks on expectations of bigger credit-market losses.

Bank of America Corp., Wachovia Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. led declines after Citigroup said financial companies face an increasingly difficult environment

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anXKbWHsXtHc&refer=home

 

[nioka]

An over reaction?

Lemmings?

Interesting.

I can't speak for others but i myself took a lot of my profits today as i have formed my opinion based on a lot of the information i have read and my experience from years of trading.

An over reaction?
Where did you actually expect the market to be at the close today?

It was lower than i expected but i certainly expected it to have a very bad day with more to come.

If i am right in my views there will be many more "over reactions" to come.

What do you think will happen to the Australian market IF the Australian banks hit us with a News Years Gift of a rate hike?

My policy is to ignore where "THE MARKET" is to a great extent. I concentrate where each individual share is. That is why I had a good day yesterday. I have been placing myself in a position where the shares I have are expected to perform well on average regardless of the market. Of course they do better if the market advances but I select them for potential. AGM was good yesterday but if you read the AGM thread you will see I have been saying that for some time now and I had the patience to wait. Anyone who cashed it out a day or so ago because they anticipated a market downturn would have been very unhappy.

 

[Real1ty]

My policy is to ignore where "THE MARKET" is to a great extent. I concentrate where each individual share is. That is why I had a good day yesterday. I have been placing myself in a position where the shares I have are expected to perform well on average regardless of the market. Of course they do better if the market advances but I select them for potential. AGM was good yesterday but if you read the AGM thread you will see I have been saying that for some time now and I had the patience to wait. Anyone who cashed it out a day or so ago because they anticipated a market downturn would have been very unhappy.

I didn't read the AGM thread but the reason that AGM did well yesterday was due to a takeover bid by ZFX.

That is why you had a good day yesterday.

I am not doubting your stock picking ability nor your right to trade your shares how you see fit.

I was merely responding to your claims that "members" were lemmings and that it was an over reaction.

I would suggest that many have made an informed decision based on what they believe is in store for us.

Right or wrong, time will tell.

 

[nioka]

I didn't read the AGM thread but the reason that AGM did well yesterday was due to a takeover bid by ZFX.

That is why you had a good day yesterday.

All Zinifex did was show a value for AGM. That value is still below the true value of AGM in my opinion. That value only matters to traders or sellers, to investors the days price doesn't matter.

 

[insider]

Is anybody considering this to be a good day to jump the ship?

 

[DionM]

Is anybody considering this to be a good day to jump the ship?

Why? Because of the partial recovery in some stocks?

I am taking the opportunity to offload some of my holdings, but only a small amount. They're stocks I had intended to offload anyway, just doing it a little sooner and with less or zero profit (but never at a loss); so I can free up cash for some bargain hunting.