4800-4900 ok
4000-4100 good
3200-3300 bargain
<2800 ??? personal debt/credit crisis/ bail in-out/super stimulus printing press
If your cashed up get ready
View attachment 101389
"Panic" is the key word.Try under 4000 within 4-6 weeks. Got to love panic
How many Australians have died so far? This has nothing to do with death rates. Playing the man not the game.what a depressing chart.
I find it very hard to read what will happen next, but considering the panic over the weekend, i predict the market will stop falling the day Aus daily death rates start falling, which i think is 2 weeks away if im reading Scomo's flattened curve.
Most likely we will both be wrong, it's like the lottery trying to bottom pick.. Only expected 5600 in Bill's prediction game so already got it wrong once!!Wow Gartley, a little more than I was thinking, which was somewhere around 3200.
Capitulation of ASX relative to US indices not surprising given the struggling advance we had since GFC low, not to mention the state of our dollar!!Currently:
XAO -30.6%
S&P500 -20.1%
Looks like another big Monday night over there.
I see, nice charts by the wayBoth. Especially, since the ranges are so big at the moment. Like to look at longer term charts too because they offer a good perpective especially in suggesting when trends are at risk. Another example is the Nasdaq Composite chart attached which was scoffed at by the bulls a few months ago
We're not at that point yet.....
Don't forget to post a shout out when we are there or close enough
Very interesting charts, thanks. I'd like to think optimistically as well and say we must be at or near the bottom.Given the theme of this thread have decided to look at 5 big panics in history all of which had very high momentum initial moves before starting counter trend rallies. The 87 crash ofcourse was over within a few days but had a re test of the lows months later. All the others continued bearishly after a "hopes re kindled " rally. I have measured the excusion of price from a nominal level ( a centered weighted moving average). So how much lower before a sustained countertrend? If history is any guide we are getting close. Perhaps only up 3-4 % lower to go. Presently 20.03% below the nominal and the SPX during the crash of 29 (the highest of the I looked at) went 23.7% below nominal.
Yeah, I have the same worry because our economy is so reliant (due to mineral exports and consumer goods imports) on China.australia will have a very severe recession from COVID19 and Chinese recession.
Given the theme of this thread have decided to look at 5 big panics in history all of which had very high momentum initial moves before starting counter trend rallies. The 87 crash ofcourse was over within a few days but had a re test of the lows months later. All the others continued bearishly after a "hopes re kindled " rally. I have measured the excusion of price from a nominal level ( a centered weighted moving average). So how much lower before a sustained countertrend? If history is any guide we are getting close. Perhaps only up 3-4 % lower to go. Presently 20.03% below the nominal and the SPX during the crash of 29 (the highest of the I looked at) went 23.7% below nominal.
This ones really unique, 2020 was from a high. All the others had some form of roll over/lower high before the descent. If you trade without stops you would have got hammered/trapped, either until you couldn't handle it anymore and sold or just decided no point selling now.
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