How Far Will The Market Fall?

[Cam019]

This is what I am seeing. Two major support areas and one minor support area. It will not surprise me to see the XJO come back into the 3150 - 3500 zone within the next 12 -18 months.

 

[wayneL]

It will be interesting when the next lot of earnings come out. I don't think we can take any earnings trends for granted for the next little while.

 

[moXJO]

This is what I am seeing. Two major support areas and one minor support area. It will not surprise me to see the XJO come back into the 3150 - 3500 zone within the next 12 -18 months.

View attachment 101371

Everything still looks pricey to me so it's a possibility.

 

[qldfrog]

well was hoping selfishly for a small rebound to offset what I had left but no..free fall again

 

[basilio]

A query if anyone can offer some ideas.
Last Friday we saw an amazing roller coaster of a ride on the markets. 8% plunge during the day and then a 12% reversal in the last two hours to close up 4%.

What I also noticed was that a very large amount of the final surge happened in the post 4 pm auction. If you check out the SP of various bank stocks for example you can see the huge jump in price at the 4.12 time slot.

Can anyone offer a reason for such a desperate last minute leap ? Could there have been a play in place on the index reaching a particular level ?

Thoughts ?

 

[MrChow]

Possibly the big institutions got word of the U.S stimulus announcement which led the Dow Jones to +9% Saturday morning.

 

[satanoperca]

So lets look at some facts:
$8B pumped into the markets by the RBA on friday, also the same amount they pumped into the market during the GFC to prevent the dollar from going <.60 USD.

Should have prevented some falls, it did, but sort lived.

But that is insignificant to what occurred on Sunday, USA Fed Reserve, smashes IR's to zero, massive move, if that cannot stabilize the markets, what can? Nothing.

The central banks are out of ammo, the fun times start. The monetary system is one it knees with a fist full of lube hoping something/someone will give it to them.

The virus is annoying, but what govnuts and central banks have been doing for the last 30 years is equal to suicide by 1000 cuts.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[basilio]

Possibly the big institutions got word of the U.S stimulus announcement which led the Dow Jones to +9% Saturday morning.

Ok . Did they think this decision was going to be some sort of saviour for them ? If they were behind the huge buying splurge in the post day auction period they have dropped a mint today.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

another shocker of a close today

 

[MrChow]

Currently:

XAO -30.6%
S&P500 -20.1%

Looks like another big Monday night over there.

 

[basilio]

Yeah. Absolute nightmare. Dropped 100 points at close.

I had a look at the long term charts of some bank shares. Totally unnerving to see a vertical line at the end of the graph. I can't imagine any financial analyst imagining such a scenario 3 months ago short of Armageddon.

Have to wonder at the security of many pension/super funds and when this might come to light. Because this has all happened in a bare few weeks I reckon reporting procedures havn't caught up.

 

[basilio]

Currently:

XAO -30.6%
S&P500 -20.1%

Looks like another big Monday night over there.

Merde...

 

[SirRumpole]

I wonder what part algorithmic trading plays in all of this.

Some institutions need their algorithms checked I reckon.

 

[sptrawler]

Uni Super has stopped lending its shares to short sellers, wonder if they are worried about getting burnt?

https://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/unisuper-suspends-stock-lending-156181752

 

[Sdajii]

I wonder what part algorithmic trading plays in all of this.

Some institutions need their algorithms checked I reckon.

An algorithm can say whatever it likes. The reality is that the fall is just starting. This isn't going to be like 2008, it'll be more like 1929. If I had anything in the market a month ago I'd have scurried to sell it. If I had anything now I'd just sell it without hesitation.

I can scarcely understand why anyone is holding almost anything at this point. The market might only drop 10% over the rest of the week, or it could drop 50%. Either way it would look expensive to me.

The world doesn't get thrown into panic with entire industries being taken offline without the economy being devastated. If China sneezes, Australia catches a cold. China didn't just sneeze, it caught COVID-19.

 

[gartley]

Are you a day-trader? Or a very short term trader?
From your previous posts I thought you were looking at the long term picture and charts.

Both. Especially, since the ranges are so big at the moment. Like to look at longer term charts too because they offer a good perpective especially in suggesting when trends are at risk. Another example is the Nasdaq Composite chart attached which was scoffed at by the bulls a few months ago

 

[moXJO]

The public look panicked. Woolworths and Coles empty shelves with the media whipping up hysteria is not a good look. If they can't do the basics. Like keeping toilet paper stocked after this many weeks. Then no wonder people are being stupid. Get the small things right.

I don't feel the government has moved swiftly or decisively enough (either medically or financially). They and business need to show a strong hand. Fear seems to be running pretty high.

So another run down is most likely. I'll probably pick up some more if we hit round the 4000-4150. Possibly see how we hold round 4800 tomorrow and judge if I will pick up some more at that. I'm still in profits from Friday buying, though that may vanish by tomorrow.

 

[sptrawler]

It may be a good time to re assess the watchlist, delete some of the speculative make a wish stocks and add some 'once in a lifetime' if it gets cheap enough stocks IMO

 

[gartley]

Current price level plus or minus a couple of hundred seems to very important. Will be interesting to see how price action interacts with it in the weeks ahead.

 

[OmegaTrader]

The public look panicked. Woolworths and Coles empty shelves with the media whipping up hysteria is not a good look. If they can't do the basics. Like keeping toilet paper stocked after this many weeks. Then no wonder people are being stupid. Get the small things right.

I don't feel the government has moved swiftly or decisively enough (either medically or financially). They and business need to show a strong hand. Fear seems to be running pretty high.

So another run down is most likely. I'll probably pick up some more if we hit round the 4000-4150. Possibly see how we hold round 4800 tomorrow and judge if I will pick up some more at that. I'm still in profits from Friday buying, though that may vanish by tomorrow.

4800-4900 ok
4000-4100 good
3200-3300 bargain
<2800 ??? personal debt/credit crisis/ bail in-out/super stimulus printing press

If your cashed up get ready