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How Far Will The Market Fall?

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sptrawler said:
I can't wait to see the chart and the lines that explain that one GG.
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Using the co-ordinates of the peak=>trough and high of todays retracement (7202, 5350, 6037) as inputs to a Fibonacci extension gets you 4582 as the 0.786 extension and 4185 as the 1.0 extension.

A bit hard to see because I had to zoom the chart quite a bit out to show the extensions while the coordinates are all within a short timeframe.



Not that I am necessarily agreeing with the forecast, just showing some lines and numbers. Think of them as potential stopping points of the C move in an A-B-C pattern where the A and B moves have completed.
 
sptrawler said:
On the subject of airlines I wonder how Cathay Pacific is managing, having their hub in Hong Kong must be problematic.
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Cathay would be suffering.

Virgin must be quaking as their major shareholders are Chinese and their planes in my experience were not as full as Qantas even before the corona virus.

gg
 
True long term but we could have a couple years of carnage, takeover by sovereign funds, even sabre rattling..
20% fall is just back last year level
 


Yes hopefully there is a lag and 15 days make a difference anecdotally its been said that local officials are cooking the books still who to believe also estimates of 40 to 50% of migrant workers have still not returned to work.
 
Great graphic representation peter, that is the way I think it will play out, but it is anyones guess nothing seems to go to plan.
 
So_Cynical said:
2 or 3 of them have to go under, Virgin must be very vulnerable, Air Asia? all the non govt airlines must be super sus.
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I think most will be saved. The savior came out just-in-time from above that may save the airlines. Actually came out from Saudi/Russia deal-break:



Cheapest Jet Fuel costs in decades !

You/we'll all get to see $1 or lower petrol at the pump soon... not seen in decades

I think the Korean case was a extreme thin margin, heavily indebted business that was treading on thin ice before the Corona hit

Then again I hope there aren't other airlines with similar situations as the virus spreads around the world So not suggesting to go out and buy the airlines right now as GG said, but I think they'll survive after the fallout.
 
I think short term we have bottomed, that looked climactic yesterday. Longer term I feel we've gone half way but the Longer term view can change over time.

Surprises how many apparent perms bulls there on this forum in general (not saying you are wrong)
 

Just to add a technical lense, the price action of cba and csl yesterday was incredible and further support my views of a short term low.

Technically long term on the s&p you could argue we can go all the way back 1600, that to me is my worst case scenario, not my base case at this point but definitely feasible.
 
I'm bearish/bullish on the size of stimulus.
So we may whipsaw a bit till money actually filters through. If US, China and Australia all start pumping dough, then it will be off again.
So stimulus response is the first hurdle.

We then have this virus.
Probably a year and a bit till we see vaccinations. So the government needs to show a very capable hand, or confidence will drop and fear will reign.
Unfortunately China and US responses will also need to be watched. US has virus and elections. If Bernie wins nominations then kiss the market goodbye.
China just needs someone to sell to and we should be good if we kiss ass.

I also worry about Aus economy. Stimulus will kick the can down the road a bit.

These kinds of markets always test people's mettle. Were your emotions in check when everyone else was losing it. Did the fear take over when the market slipped.
"Buy when there is blood on the streets" always stuck in my brain. Get out when you hear "sky is the limit".

If talking lows on another run down. I'd pick 5000 xjo(sorry always trade the xjo not xao) I'm always off about 200 points so 4800.


I'm a guesstimator and a gambler, the worse kind of trader(If you could call me that) though.
 
jbocker said:
I think these people are justified in hording large amounts, they are obviously proven to be huge ar$eholes!
Click to expand...

Love the comment, yes everyone suffers as these few hoarders have it all for themselves.
 
kid hustlr said:
I think short term we have bottomed, that looked climactic yesterday. Longer term I feel we've gone half way but the Longer term view can change over time.
Click to expand...

When you say short term or long term, what sort of time frame do you have in mind?

Days? Weeks? Months?

I’m not disagreeing, just trying to understand.
 
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