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How Far Will The Market Fall?

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OmegaTrader said:
Can you please explain to me how the economy is over?
Click to expand...
There is also IMO a lot of 'fat' in the economy, which came about during the mining and property boom, every tradie put prices through the roof shops were opened to absorb the slush of money coming through the economy.
When that dries up there is a lot of over capacity, in the business sector, something has to give when there is less money to go around.
The retail sector has been struggling with it for a couple of years, this is really just taking it to another level of pain, only businesses with solid underpinnings will survive.
I know an older couple in there 70's have a small business, can't sell it and are struggling to run it, sad really he is coming down with alzheimer's.
 
Sheeeit! Thanks for the sermon.

I don't disagree with you at all there. However we must make our individual analyses and make our bets as we see them.

However are we to take outright gambles, educated guesses, or calculated risks based on data?

it's a tough thing because sometimes the market has already bolted by the time the data comes out.... But we can use every bit of Intel at our disposal beforehand.

My job as an investor / trader, as I see it is trying to get ahead of the curve and the way I see it the curve is about to recurve itself.

I may be wrong, who knows. But I am extremely confident that my opinion that for Australia to prosper in the world economy going forward we must change our economy, maybe radically so.

Equally I have no confidence that we should rely on our government to lead the way here, no matter what it's pathetic ideology.

It's up to us, the plebeians, but, government actions may expedite certain courses of actions which as yet remain to be revealed.
 
aus_trader said:
Just to lighten the mood, I am just waiting for the interest rates to go deep into the -ve so I can start rolling it in with interest payments for taking on massive debts
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Oh yeah, pay me to take on the debt for the 3mil estate my missus dreams of... I'm in! LOL
 
wayneL said:
Oh yeah, pay me to take on the debt for the 3mil estate my missus dreams of... I'm in! LOL
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You won't believe it, my missus has also been sending me hints of a home upgrade for quite a while now, seeing how other friends and family have gone for the deluxe upgrade to mansions ! They all got tempted by Zero interest rates.

No I haven't given in, I can't see how we could be any happier leveraging up to the eyeballs. Happy to be paying the mortgage on our smaller home and still have leg room if interest rates rise.
 
Right on!

I was joking about the Mrs' desires to be honest.

It's just the two of us, so what do we need? Not much more than a cottage really, well apart from a couple of stables for the nags, a veggie garden... And a fig tree if we want to be really high brow. LOL

All else is just serving the ego... Unhealthy.
 
OmegaTrader said:
Can you please explain to me how the economy is over?
Click to expand...

Not the economy as such but the recent one where Australia exports coal, gas, iron ore, "education" and tourism and buys pretty much everything else.

That's not going to work anymore, the economy as such isn't finished but that version of it is kaput and not likely to come back in our lifetime.

The future? Manufacturing is going to be part of it almost certainly. Most students at Australian universities will have grown up in Australia, there's not likely to be much "exporting" of education going forward. Etc. A stark change from the recent past.
 
aus_trader said:
Just to lighten the mood, I am just waiting for the interest rates to go deep into the -ve so I can start rolling it in with interest payments for taking on massive debts
Click to expand...


Danish bank launches world’s first negative interest rate mortgage.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage

I didn't believe it at first when someone told me last year.

lol


Do you think that stimulus now and coming up will not be enough to re pump ?
 
Why won't it work anymore?
How will manufacturing in Aus come back in a globalised economy competing with second and third world countries?
 
OmegaTrader said:
Why won't it work anymore?
How will manufacturing in Aus come back in a globalised economy competing with second and third world countries?
Click to expand...

It won't work because every country is likely to look inward at this point - the shift was already underway and this will accelerate it almost certainly.

Governments are going to need to create work, not low prices for consumer goods, and in an environment where education and tourism are stuffed that doesn't leave too many options.

What that means for the market I'm not so sure but I think there's going to be some change in what sectors are dominant going forward.
 
OmegaTrader said:
Do you think that stimulus now and coming up will not be enough to re pump ?
Click to expand...
Maybe.... I don't really know.

But I do think that we really do need to change our economy. We really can't rely on inflating the real estate market and selling red dirt to China forever.

The sooner we become productive in different ways, value-adding etcetera, the better we can survive as a first world economy going forward.

Think about this, let's subtract real estate speculation and the minerals boom from our economy in the last 20 years, what do we have?
 

Won't tourism and education rebound after the corana virus has spread and immunity is eventually achieved?
How is Australia looking inward?
How do governments create work?
Stimulus, lowering rate, loans, tax cut? Isn't gov doing that now+more in future
 
Agree. I think we need to be innovative to be successful. We will do well with a few more CSL's, COH's etc. Hold neither but wouldn't mind getting on board at IPO stage for the next superstar if we can create any...
 
A stimulus will do nothing except give people a very very short term sugar hit, with a large national hangover, well actually it will do something, put the nation into further debt, which at some point will need to be paid back or bankrupt the country.

With the dollar at .60USD, this might benefit the education and tourism sector, but prolonged periods of no income will wiper the majority out anyway.

As for lowering the rates, that is a shoe in, will be 0% within 3 months. Which moving forward is going to cause even more issues.

Tax cut, might work, but if govnuts receipts drop, how do they provide services to the population.

This is going to get a lot worse before we can even talk about a recovery, sh--it we are only in it a few weeks, the layoffs will start in coming weeks, that is when it gets really interesting.

I am expecting unemployment to raise to 10%.

and the share to be under 4500 within 2 months
 
When you too have quite finished, it is my nest egg in _ve, that will be buying your McMansion.
 
sptrawler said:
When you too have quite finished, it is my nest egg in _ve, that will be buying your McMansion.
Click to expand...
It's bound to be tempting with -ve interest rates looming !

Looking for headlines like:
"Latest home loan paying you 2.5%pa to borrow up to $1,000,000"
 
Market is RS at the moment. ASX200 well under 5000
The economics of this situation will only get worse. We will really have to come up with creative solutions that keep our infrastructure mostly intact and not destroy peoples lives.
How ?
 
You never know, the Government either sooner or later, may have to go back to the future and demand the miners build secondary industries again, as happened in the 1960's.
They need to do that or charge them a volumetric tax on resources, so that the Government can re build secondary and tertiary industries.
This is the perfect time to re think the forward plan, I think enough offshoring has been done, to satisfy any Lima agreement.
 
basilio said:
Market is RS at the moment. ASX200 well under 5000
The economics of this situation will only get worse. We will really have to come up with creative solutions that keep our infrastructure mostly intact and not destroy peoples lives.
How ?
Click to expand...
Sit down, put your arms around your knees, lean well forward and kiss something goodby.
 
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