How are you going to spot bargains? Opportunity isn't far away - how will you know?

[sammy84]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

For me Woolworths is a screeming buy considering todays price action.

Beg to differ. The price action of Woolworths(WOW) has not been screaming anything for a long time. Chart below is from April 2009 until now.

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

I agree that this is when you will know if you're spotting a bargain or not, you then need an entry strategy, at this stage I use a phased entry, just in case...

By The time you work that put opportunity will be well and truly gone
Of be interested on some examples to follow say 5 or so
Anyone?

 

[toocool]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Beg to differ. The price action of Woolworths(WOW) has not been screaming anything for a long time. Chart below is from April 2009 until now.
View attachment 41893

Also a bit of uncertany over their cap-ex with the hardware store venture too.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

If you are looking at ASX 200 where there really is not much value at the moment you could do worse than consider ANZ it is now trading at about 15 percent discount to my IV and of course they pay quite good dividends.

 

[VSntchr]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

If you are looking at ASX 200 where there really is not much value at the moment you could do worse than consider ANZ it is now trading at about 15 percent discount to my IV and of course they pay quite good dividends.

I have ANZ roughly the same as you...I admit to holding a decent amount. Although I beleive CBA is still the dominant force in AUS, ANZ's growth in Asia is exciting me enough to hold on at least...

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

My thoughts would be if you want long term results.. maybe 1 year? I'd seriously looking by buy back into the market very shortly and especially in alt. energy, oil and gas and coal. These stocks have fallen due to massive media hype. I pray nothing worse happens for the Japanese people but the market has fallen too far. If you want a punt/gamble get into uranium shortly and sell on a quick rise if we get some good news.

Trying to pick a bottom is far too hard on uncertain news in Japan... if you feel the Japan thing wont get too much worse then BUY just about anything.... everything has fallen due to this tsumani and nuclear damage.

These are just my thoughts and views. I highly doubt many of you guys will agree but we'll see how things are in a year?

 

[namrog]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

By The time you work that put opportunity will be well and truly gone
?

What do you mean ? there's nothing to work out, if a share is trading at $1 for example having fallen from say $1-50, and has asset backing of a dollar a share, then you know you're in the ball park roughly, from there I would usually study the chart, have a nibble with say 20 % of allocated funds, and then play it at something like 25 cent increments, averaging either down or up or both..
I'm not talking about penny dreadfulls here even though i've used $1 as an example

It could be argued that opportunity will be well and truly gone if you wait for the same share to bottom at say 70 cents and by the time the trend is reversed and confirmed, is back trading at $1-20...

What we're taking about here, is shares being sold off during a market rout, and not something that's company specific....

So tell me , how would you play that situation, say we're at the stage where the sp is 95 cents, and you're intersted in buying into this company...

 

[explod]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

My thoughts would be if you want long term results.. maybe 1 year? I'd seriously looking by buy back into the market very shortly and especially in alt. energy, oil and gas and coal. These stocks have fallen due to massive media hype. I pray nothing worse happens for the Japanese people but the market has fallen too far. If you want a punt/gamble get into uranium shortly and sell on a quick rise if we get some good news.

Trying to pick a bottom is far too hard on uncertain news in Japan... if you feel the Japan thing wont get too much worse then BUY just about anything.... everything has fallen due to this tsumani and nuclear damage.

These are just my thoughts and views. I highly doubt many of you guys will agree but we'll see how things are in a year?

If the Dow has a couple of more days like the last it will break below an uptrend line established from its low in March 09. With the carry trade in trouble overnight we see a similar situation (to 08/09) arising whereby margin calls are forcing sales for cash.

So I would not be calling any bottom yet. It may be as you say but for mine I prefer to await some confidence in the markets first. We are a long way from that IMHO

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

So tell me , how would you play that situation, say we're at the stage where the sp is 95 cents, and you're intersted in buying into this company...

Price /Volume/Pattern.
No more no less.
Not interested in anything else but how the buyers and sellers percieve price NOW.
If Im wrong Ill be wrong for a very short time --Ill cut loss fast.
If I'm right Ill be right for as long as Price/Volume and Pattern tell me I am.
Takes seconds to trade.

If it tells me nothing then thats what I'll do.

 

[namrog]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Price /Volume/Pattern.
No more no less.
Not interested in anything else but how the buyers and sellers percieve price NOW.
If Im wrong Ill be wrong for a very short time --Ill cut loss fast.
If I'm right Ill be right for as long as Price/Volume and Pattern tell me I am.
Takes seconds to trade.

If it tells me nothing then thats what I'll do.

That's fair enough if you're trading it for a very short period , and seconds matter.
I understood the header, maybe mistakenly to mean " how will you spot a bargain, as regards investing as opposed to a trading opportunity..

I should clarify, and I could have done with a lot less words, that using asset backing per share is a starting point, thats all, no more no less..

I do understand what you're geting at and where you're coming from, I listen to what you have to say on the various threads and in radges rag as well..

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

That's fair enough if you're trading it for a very short period , and seconds matter.

No I can and have used the exact same nethod for longer term ---not years but weeks.
I can and have used a weekly chart.Right now its short term SPI and FTSE index trading with 2 open Share trades.

I understood the header, maybe mistakenly to mean " how will you spot a bargain, as regards investing as opposed to a trading opportunity..

An opportunity is an opportunity time is quantified by the purchaser.

I should clarify, and I could have done with a lot less words, that using asset backing per share is a starting point, thats all, no more no less..

I do understand what you're geting at and where you're coming from, I listen to what you have to say on the various threads and in radges rag as well..

Yes you could but that would give you a sizable list I would argue.
That list could be then best traded (in my view) if you had a trigger that you looked for to best time a low risk High reward opportunity.
If its wrong then I personally would be out with minimal damage but if right holding opportunity.

The technical list will be shorter I would argue.

 

[namrog]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

No I can and have used the exact same nethod for longer term ---not years but weeks.
I can and have used a weekly chart.Right now its short term SPI and FTSE index trading with 2 open Share trades.



An opportunity is an opportunity time is quantified by the purchaser.



Yes you could but that would give you a sizable list I would argue.
That list could be then best traded (in my view) if you had a trigger that you looked for to best time a low risk High reward opportunity.
If its wrong then I personally would be out with minimal damage but if right holding opportunity.

The technical list will be shorter I would argue.

I can't disagree with anything you've said there, but it would apply to trading any market, top to bottom and little to do with spoting a bargain.

Having said that, I guess there are bargains when shorting an overbought top, same as buying an oversold bottom, again it's a personal thing and what your definition of a bargain is, coupled to your trading / investment style..

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

I can't disagree with anything you've said there, but it would apply to trading any market, top to bottom and little to do with spoting a bargain.

Having said that, I guess there are bargains when shorting an overbought top, same as buying an oversold bottom, again it's a personal thing and what your definition of a bargain is, coupled to your trading / investment style..

No

There are Price and volume Patterns which alert specifically to turns in very fast moves.
They point to exhaustion.
If you can spot it then there is opportunity for low risk entries.
Many thought it was yesterday!
But there was/is little to indicate exhaustion of supply.

 

[namrog]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

No

There are Price and volume Patterns which alert specifically to turns in very fast moves.
They point to exhaustion.
If you can spot it then there is opportunity for low risk entries.
Many thought it was yesterday!
But there was/is little to indicate exhaustion of supply.

It seems that no matter what I say, your first word is going to be "NO"

There is no such thing as a price volume pattern that can guanantee a turn in an equity or index, there are times that those with an experienced eye can latch onto market action, and act, with a high expectation that they will be right , but how does this become a bargain, again I think you're confusing the term Bargain with trading opportunity..

Enough of this, I'm off for a few pints of Guinness, Happy St Pats day...

Let us know when you spot a bargain, cheers...

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

No such thing really
PEN
Thread #1004 post well before the down turn
XAO thread at the turn 7th March
Check my comments there

Now you should know why I say
NO!!!

 

[professor_frink]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

No such thing really
PEN
Thread #1004 post well before the down turn
XAO thread at the turn 7th March
Check my comments there

Now you should know why I say
NO!!!

When you say NO it's just as likely to be wrong as right. Just like everyone else in this game.

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

When you say NO it's just as likely to be wrong as right. Just like everyone else in this game.

Fair enough I'll keep to myself then
Thought there maybe some interesting content an perhaps learning for some
Obviously not
No problem

 

[namrog]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

No such thing really
PEN
Thread #1004 post well before the down turn
XAO thread at the turn 7th March
Check my comments there

Now you should know why I say
NO!!!

Had a look at your PEN post, great call, I'll have a guess what it was based on, but you'll probably tell me No it wasn't.
An abc correction after a 5 leg up, with a fib retracement into the typical 50 to 61.8 area...

Havent looked at the XAO thread but I'm aware of your stance there going back a couple of months, and have silently agreed with you...

Everyone gets it right sometimes and can come up with past examples, ( steady ),, you, I believe get it right a lot more than most, and I would put that down to sheer experience.

I still say, what you have are trading opportunities, so I'll leave it at that, we obviously interpret the term spotting bargains differently..

 

[suhm]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Have to agree with tech here, i doubt this is the bottom, no fear in the streets, some blood esp in the uranium sector and japan but otherwise its more like a rapid correction, the news report aren't bearish enough and far too many people still trying to catch the falling knife and positioning for an upswing. Just look at the great day to deploy capital thread, the market goes down for 2 days and people are already ready to go all in.

Even if this is the bottom you will likely have a long time to deploy your capital as there is too much volatility for this to be a bull market, there should be slow steady gains not this bs up down movement with my portfolio going -4%, +3% purely on sentiment.

That being said I always hedge my bets, during downturns i only trim the stocks that I think have the least upside which is now and I still buy on news, so in that way I am a perma bull.

To each their own, everyone makes money in the market or loses it in different ways or else there would be very little trading as we'd all be doing the same thing, but I've learnt my lesson about relative value, just because you think something is below "intrinsic value" that doesn't mean that you will make money from it. The market has already taken the price of your company below its fair value so there is no reason why it can't go down more.

The share price will only go up on a sustainable basis if the company improves fundamentally and helps drive away selling supply or selling supply is exhausted, I.e. everyone who wants to sell already has and you will see the share price creep up again.


P.S. On a personal note I find the posts from people quoting specific figures of what the price of a company should be worth ridiculous, its a reasonable tool and fine to use it for large stable companies like WOW but it is just one valuation like, PE, P/B, PEG, DCF and the many others. To me it seems like Roger Montgomery is the head of a cult, an Australian version of Buffet but at least Buffet has a decent track record. Look at Montgomery's time at clime capital backed CCP to the hilt, then blamed management for misleading him and losing money, bails out when they are nearly at their bottom and misses the huge run up in SP, his mantra is to buy at a discount to intrinsic value and sell when it is a premium to it but he did the polar opposite.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Have to agree with tech here, i doubt this is the bottom, no fear in the streets, some blood esp in the uranium sector and japan but otherwise its more like a rapid correction, the news report aren't bearish enough and far too many people still trying to catch the falling knife and positioning for an upswing. Just look at the great day to deploy capital thread, the market goes down for 2 days and people are already ready to go all in.

Even if this is the bottom you will likely have a long time to deploy your capital as there is too much volatility for this to be a bull market, there should be slow steady gains not this bs up down movement with my portfolio going -4%, +3% purely on sentiment.

That being said I always hedge my bets, during downturns i only trim the stocks that I think have the least upside which is now and I still buy on news, so in that way I am a perma bull.

To each their own, everyone makes money in the market or loses it in different ways or else there would be very little trading as we'd all be doing the same thing, but I've learnt my lesson about relative value, just because you think something is below "intrinsic value" that doesn't mean that you will make money from it. The market has already taken the price of your company below its fair value so there is no reason why it can't go down more.

The share price will only go up on a sustainable basis if the company improves fundamentally and helps drive away selling supply or selling supply is exhausted, I.e. everyone who wants to sell already has and you will see the share price creep up again.


P.S. On a personal note I find the posts from people quoting specific figures of what the price of a company should be worth ridiculous, its a reasonable tool and fine to use it for large stable companies like WOW but it is just one valuation like, PE, P/B, PEG, DCF and the many others. To me it seems like Roger Montgomery is the head of a cult, an Australian version of Buffet but at least Buffet has a decent track record. Look at Montgomery's time at clime capital backed CCP to the hilt, then blamed management for misleading him and losing money, bails out when they are nearly at their bottom and misses the huge run up in SP, his mantra is to buy at a discount to intrinsic value and sell when it is a premium to it but he did the polar opposite.

RE - RM I am pretty sure he wasn't using the same valuation techniques when he was at Clime Capital as he is today. He was I think using ROE as the main tool for valuing companies.

Secondly of course no matter what valuation method you use you will never get it right everytime.

Thirdly the Buffet or RM method is probably still the most risk adverse approach of all methods. The amount of speculation and gamble which is inhererent in any invesment is mininised by the approach outlined by Buffet and adapted by RM.

Lastly RMs track record is pretty good over the last year. The three star performers that he plugged FGE, MCE and MLD nearly all tripled in value over the year.

I didn't see anyone else come up with these sort of companies or tip them?