How are you going to spot bargains? Opportunity isn't far away - how will you know?

[mr. jeff]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains? Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

prolly the wrong place for it but want to post this quick so that if you feel it may be a good time to step aside just in case this escalates, you have the chance...



Could be the start of some international political clashes but I declare I don't know anything about what is happening really may be just getting affected by the media...

 

[Huskar]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Have to agree with tech here, i doubt this is the bottom, no fear in the streets, some blood esp in the uranium sector and japan but otherwise its more like a rapid correction, the news report aren't bearish enough and far too many people still trying to catch the falling knife and positioning for an upswing. Just look at the great day to deploy capital thread, the market goes down for 2 days and people are already ready to go all in.

Even if this is the bottom you will likely have a long time to deploy your capital as there is too much volatility for this to be a bull market, there should be slow steady gains not this bs up down movement with my portfolio going -4%, +3% purely on sentiment.

That being said I always hedge my bets, during downturns i only trim the stocks that I think have the least upside which is now and I still buy on news, so in that way I am a perma bull.

To each their own, everyone makes money in the market or loses it in different ways or else there would be very little trading as we'd all be doing the same thing, but I've learnt my lesson about relative value, just because you think something is below "intrinsic value" that doesn't mean that you will make money from it. The market has already taken the price of your company below its fair value so there is no reason why it can't go down more.

The share price will only go up on a sustainable basis if the company improves fundamentally and helps drive away selling supply or selling supply is exhausted, I.e. everyone who wants to sell already has and you will see the share price creep up again.


P.S. On a personal note I find the posts from people quoting specific figures of what the price of a company should be worth ridiculous, its a reasonable tool and fine to use it for large stable companies like WOW but it is just one valuation like, PE, P/B, PEG, DCF and the many others. To me it seems like Roger Montgomery is the head of a cult, an Australian version of Buffet but at least Buffet has a decent track record. Look at Montgomery's time at clime capital backed CCP to the hilt, then blamed management for misleading him and losing money, bails out when they are nearly at their bottom and misses the huge run up in SP, his mantra is to buy at a discount to intrinsic value and sell when it is a premium to it but he did the polar opposite.

Could not agree more suhm, especially about Roger and CCP I have watched that for a long time and remember him sprouting it big time just before its fall from grace from $12 to 15c... Of course, he was correct in the long-term because if you held the whole way through you could have got out at $30 .

What are thoughts on CCP now and similar eg MNY?