How are you going to spot bargains? Opportunity isn't far away - how will you know?

[tech/a]

So Far on this forum the best advice Ive seen (which is pretty terrible) is keep buying as the knife falls.
Broadway made a very astute observation before the market turned (In the XJO thread) and I'll be very supprised if the majority of stocks smashed right now dont display a very common pattern.
This will present a brief opportunity to some who know what they are looking for to take advantage of a correction in those stocks to around 50% of that lost.

You may well see it in the Index/s

So what are you looking for?

 

[Logique]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

So Far on this forum the best advice Ive seen (which is pretty terrible) is keep buying as the knife falls....
....So what are you looking for?

Geez Tech, what's the worst advice then.
I think we'll need to see some positive news coming out of Japan, and when will that will be. So much for them to work through.

 

[explod]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

So Far on this forum the best advice Ive seen (which is pretty terrible) is keep buying as the knife falls.
Broadway made a very astute observation before the market turned (In the XJO thread) and I'll be very supprised if the majority of stocks smashed right now dont display a very common pattern.
This will present a brief opportunity to some who know what they are looking for to take advantage of a correction in those stocks to around 50% of that lost.

You may well see it in the Index/s

So what are you looking for?

Not too sure about this tech, I learnt "never try to catch a falling knife."

One needs to stand back and wait for a confirmed bottom and only back in on a rise with some strength to it.

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

So Far on this forum the best advice Ive seen (which is pretty terrible) is keep buying as the knife falls.

It appears sarcasm is hard to spot here.

Its already underway in the Index. (SPI)

 

[explod]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

It appears sarcasm is hard to spot here.

Its already underway in the Index. (SPI)

Who me.?

The terrible issues in Japan in my view based on their nature and behaviour throughout history is that the problems will be understated. Confirmed in a communicated with a mate who lives in that area of the world overnight.

I may be wrong but this situation has potential to become worse before it improves. The markets may be in for further downside and it is only sensible to front these possibilities.

However volatility of course is very good for the short term trader and there is plenty of it.

 

[explod]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

It appears sarcasm is hard to spot here.

Its already underway in the Index. (SPI)

Over my head Tech, but is know as "the lowest form of wit" so reap as sewn.

 

[Julia]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Who me.?

The terrible issues in Japan in my view based on their nature and behaviour throughout history is that the problems will be understated. Confirmed in a communicated with a mate who lives in that area of the world overnight.

I may be wrong but this situation has potential to become worse before it improves. The markets may be in for further downside and it is only sensible to front these possibilities.

However volatility of course is very good for the short term trader and there is plenty of it.

explod, I don't mean to be putting words in Tech's mouth, but I imagine the sarcasm to which he referred was his own remark about "the best advice" in his initial post.
He will correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

What broadway said is that a whole range of stocks were making similar looking pattern and that they were also reflecting the the XJO's patterns. That doesn't just happen at market turning points, it happens every single day of the year!

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

explod, I don't mean to be putting words in Tech's mouth, but I imagine the sarcasm to which he referred was his own remark about "the best advice" in his initial post.
He will correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes your right Julia.---not directed at anyone.

What broadway said is that a whole range of stocks were making similar looking pattern and that they were also reflecting the the XJO's patterns. That doesn't just happen at market turning points, it happens every single day of the year!

Yes right.
But while they may show similarities its pretty obvious that at IMPORTANT turning points many not even listed in the XJO display strong top patterns/price action and at bottoms strong bottoming patterns and price action.

 

[explod]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

explod, I don't mean to be putting words in Tech's mouth, but I imagine the sarcasm to which he referred was his own remark about "the best advice" in his initial post.
He will correct me if I'm wrong.

I did eventually pick that up Julia.

But do love you for your continued care of an old foot in mouth

Called male schetoma, if it is in front of one it is not there. Or as an old collegue used to say "read the screen james"

 

[skc]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Look for charts after 9/11 terrorists attack for some possible behaviour...

 

[professor_frink]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Look for charts after 9/11 terrorists attack for some possible behaviour...

red line is the day before the attacks:



For another view, here's the nikkei, sp500 and all ords after the kobe quake in 1995:

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Look for charts after 9/11 terrorists attack for some possible behaviour...

yes agree.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

yes agree.

agree on which part of the picture though?

2 things happened after sept 2001:

1. there was a rally shortly after.
2. the market fell by 25% in the 13 months following.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

I'm using CDU for that purpose. Different scenario but more recent, therefore I'm hoping a bit more representative of traders' moods.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Well it is relatively simply if you are a value investor.

You look for good quality stocks,(companies with low levels of debt, high and increasing ROE, competitive advantage) that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value.

Trying to time the bottom of the market is almost impossible and buying bad companies because their share price has gone down is also not a bright idea.

Hope that helps.

 

[notabclearning]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

For me Woolworths is a screeming buy considering todays price action.

 

[tech/a]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

agree on which part of the picture though?

2 things happened after sept 2001:

1. there was a rally shortly after.
2. the market fell by 25% in the 13 months following.

Most of it.
My analysis tells me this is a wave 3 (arguably that wave has ended) and we are going into a wave 4 with will see a retracement of between .382 and .618 of Wave 3 followed by wave 5.

So similar in many respects
.
I find that the wave theory reflects emotional sentiment time and again.

Eg (on a down move) the 5 waves

(1) Some selling so some join the crowd.
(2) Some buying as the selling has made things look cheap for some.
(3) Selling renews with vengence and sellers come in---this is the longest wave and extends as it is sold off harder and harder.
(4) The first wave of bargain hunters enter and pick up "seemingly" bargains.
(5) Those caught take advantage of the new buyers in Wave 4 and sell out this is why this wave will be choppy and appear directionless---for some time often a triangle.
But once the low of 3 is taken out selling resumes UNTIL we see the EXHAUSTION of supply at Wave 5's end.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

so you think we'll rally from here before new lows, but your not sure if it's a bear market or not?

 

[namrog]

Re: How are you going to spot bargains. Opportunity isn't far away - how will you kno

Well it is relatively simply if you are a value investor.

You look for good quality stocks,(companies with low levels of debt, high and increasing ROE, competitive advantage) that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value.

Hope that helps.

I agree that this is when you will know if you're spotting a bargain or not, you then need an entry strategy, at this stage I use a phased entry, just in case...