House prices to stagnate for 'years'

Smurf1976 said:

But will the conditions of the last 5 years likely be repeated? Will we really get to the point where interest alone takes 100% of average pay and home buyers with a mortgage don't eat? Do the math and it's seriously scary...

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I dont see any evidence of this but what i do see is indiscriminate lending by banks and people buying properties they cannot afford. For instance there is a lot of talk in Perth atm about the average person being unable to afford to buy a home. This is bs im afraid, despite the median price approaching 500,000 there are still many properties for sale under 250,000, are they 4x2's in desirable locations? No, the people getting into trouble as in the last slump in the early 80s are people that have over borrowed. Anyone who cant do simple arithmetic to work out what they can really afford should not be contemplating buying property.

wayneL said:

There is nearly 1500 posts in this thread. You need not wait as, I repeat, I have written extensively... as have others. Read the thread.

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Of course, the classic cop out when asked to give evidence "just read all my posts" Lol

So a man and/or woman who is/are gainfully employed should not be able to afford a modest house? Interesting.... and revealing.

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That wasnt your quote,have you forgotten already what you posted? Let me remind you

A working slob should be able to comfortably afford a mortgage on a modest house

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I think you have forgotten the basis of our economy is capitalism and not socialism. There is no stigma to renting, home ownership should be for people who wish to work hard and achieve not for someone that just wants to be comfortable.

biff said:

I dont see any evidence of this but what i do see is indiscriminate lending by banks and people buying properties they cannot afford. For instance there is a lot of talk in Perth atm about the average person being unable to afford to buy a home. This is bs im afraid, despite the median price approaching 500,000 there are still many properties for sale under 250,000, are they 4x2's in desirable locations? No, the people getting into trouble as in the last slump in the early 80s are people that have over borrowed. Anyone who cant do simple arithmetic to work out what they can really afford should not be contemplating buying property.

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Cognitive Dissonance

biff said:

Still waiting for your reasoning as to why house prices wont go up in Perth.
and I do not agree with your statement here

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1. Read the rest of this thread.
2. Mining Boom is good, but this was mainly driven by over-demand and under-supply, this pushes up the the prices of commodity's. With many projects/expansions being completed in the next few years, commodity's will most likely go into oversupply/underdemand scenario which will push commodity prices down.
3. Why would China continue to want to pay "Top Dollar" for Commodities? They are in a position to quite easily crash commodity prices just by reducing demand for six months. This could plausibly be done after the Olympics. They have also taken strategic 20% stakes in many Aussie Resource Company Boards, inside information, voting power, etc, etc.
4. China's biggest customer is going into recession, the American Consumer's ATM has pretty much run out of money, their housing is crashing and US unemployment is set to rocket.
5. The US is pretty much set to start a Trade War with China, this is going to put pressure on Chinese Export profitability, if they can't remain competative at one end, they will have to do other things to remain profitable at the other end, crashing commodity prices would be a good mechanism for this.
6. Many of the Mining Boom jobs have been in construction/expansions, not digging holes in the ground, when these construction/expansion projects are completed, watch unemployment kick upwards.
7. Perth is heading for an over-supply of housing in the next year or two, when much of the back-log is completed. This will most likely tie in with the mining boom slowing/ending and people leaving the state.
8. We are currently in a Low Unemployment, low lending standards, low interest rates environment, what happens when one or all of these variables change.
9. Just about everyone except the rich and the smart are up to their necks in debt, changes in unemployment and Interest Rates could destroy anyone hopping on the edge of the debt abyss.
10. The whole planet has been in a massive debt bubble which has just started deflating. I wouldn't be surprised to see everything going back to early 2000 prices...

There is so much more

Biff, Can you give me 10 reason why prices should keep going up?

If you are so convinced it is going to keep going up, you should be confident enough to max out your lending capacity...

biff said:

Of course, the classic cop out when asked to give evidence "just read all my posts" Lol

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No, the classic cop out is not reading what is already posted. Why should anyone duplicate what is already in the thread? You are using silly arguments.

biff said:

That wasnt your quote,have you forgotten already what you posted? Let me remind you

I think you have forgotten the basis of our economy is capitalism and not socialism. There is no stigma to renting, home ownership should be for people who wish to work hard and achieve not for someone that just wants to be comfortable.

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Let me introduce you to the concept of metaphor.

Working (gainfully employed) slob(average guy)

These post where people start spitting hairs to be argumentative are tiresome. Reasoned argument please. I do not want to have to start culling posts here.

wayneL said:

No, the classic cop out is not reading what is already posted. Why should anyone duplicate what is already in the thread? You are using silly arguments.

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Please show where exactly in this thread you posted argument or substantive debate as to why house prices in Perth will not rise and I might perhaps see your point. Simply asking someone to search for evidence of your statements through your previous postings is not much of an argument.

Let me introduce you to the concept of metaphor.

Working (gainfully employed) slob(average guy)

These post where people start spitting hairs to be argumentative are tiresome. Reasoned argument please. I do not want to have to start culling posts here.

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My reference was to your use of the word "comfortably", obviously that was not evident to you. There is no splitting hairs, either you posted a statement or you didnt. Either you can back up your statements or you cant, I am still waiting for your reasoned argument. Should I post examples of your posts to try and find one?

:sleeping:

This is turning into willy waving. Kimo has done a good review.

I'm going to go and read some poetry.

Ciao

biff said:

I dont see any evidence of this but what i do see is indiscriminate lending by banks and people buying properties they cannot afford. For instance there is a lot of talk in Perth atm about the average person being unable to afford to buy a home. This is bs im afraid, despite the median price approaching 500,000 there are still many properties for sale under 250,000, are they 4x2's in desirable locations? No, the people getting into trouble as in the last slump in the early 80s are people that have over borrowed. Anyone who cant do simple arithmetic to work out what they can really afford should not be contemplating buying property.

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Do you live in Perth? I do, and i don't think what you're saying is quite true. I do agree that uneducated people (ie Cashed Up Bogans) are the ones getting themselves in trouble, not fully grasping the implications of things like Harvey Norman's buy now pay later 'schemes'.

I"m sitting just below average wage here in Perth, and I can't afford to borrow 250,000 for a house. Even if i could, i wouldn't be able to live anywhere near work, unless I bought a 1 bedroom dogbox. I don't want that, I'd much rather stay where I am, in a nice house in a nice area paying rent, and putting the rest into the sharemarket.

If you have been past West Perth (as an example) recently, you'll see that there is a massive amount of residential buildings going up. These won't be ready for a few more years, and by then, the market will have changed (in my opinion) and there will be an oversupply of apartments.

Im your average working slob, and I can't afford to live comfortably in a house that I part own.

Vizard's mansion sets sale record of more than $18m

http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...ets-sale-record/2007/05/28/1180205160419.html

DISGRACED businessman Steve Vizard has sold his palatial Toorak mansion for more than $18 million as real estate records continue to tumble for Melbourne's trophy homes.

"It's not a triple-A Toorak address," he said. "Your Triple-A addresses are more your boulevards like Albany, St Georges, Irving; this (Orrong) is a busy road."

Mr Morrell said demand was strong for luxury property.

"The top end at the moment seems to have no boundaries; it's a classic case of undersupply of quality products."

Lucky said:

Vizard's mansion sets sale record of more than $18m

http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...ets-sale-record/2007/05/28/1180205160419.html

DISGRACED businessman Steve Vizard has sold his palatial Toorak mansion for more than $18 million as real estate records continue to tumble for Melbourne's trophy homes.

"It's not a triple-A Toorak address," he said. "Your Triple-A addresses are more your boulevards like Albany, St Georges, Irving; this (Orrong) is a busy road."

Mr Morrell said demand was strong for luxury property.

"The top end at the moment seems to have no boundaries; it's a classic case of undersupply of quality products."

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I love this part: ""It wasn't on the market. Someone basically knocked on his front door and gave him an offer he could not refuse," the source said.

"It's a stroke of luck and he certainly needed one."

Yes, he needed some luck, boy has he been hard done by these past few years, what a joke, ASIC went easy on him. He had it all, directorships in some of the most powerful company boards in Australia and misused his position for greed, pure and simple.

hello,

the guy who bought vizard's house must be the biggest fool ever going by the majority of the post's here

they are about to wipe out 9 or so million aren't they?

those with coin keep getting in, amazing stuff

thankyou

robots

Just to keep the balance

Housing affordability at record low

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...y-at-record-low/2007/05/29/1180205229824.html

Housing affordability has fallen to its lowest level yet recorded by a key industry measure of the market set up 23 years ago.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) said the index was at its lowest level since the group was established in 1984, with the monthly loan repayment on a typical first home mortgage rising to $2,387 from $2,352.

The March quarter result was the fourth consecutive decline in affordability, with the monthly loan repayment on a typical first home mortgage rising by 1.5 per cent.

Mortgage repayments now account for 30.7 per cent of an average first home buyer's income, up 0.2 percentage points on the December 2006 quarter.

robots said:

hello,

the guy who bought vizard's house must be the biggest fool ever going by the majority of the post's here

they are about to wipe out 9 or so million aren't they?

those with coin keep getting in, amazing stuff

thankyou

robots

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I remember when Laurie Connell bought at the top of the last boom. Bought several blocks in Peppermint grove to demolish and build his palace. At the same time he developed his Bedfordale property

His estate took a drubbing on it.

Rich men aren't immune from buying at the top.

But in fairness, the big end of town is doing exceptionally well ATM and on less tenuous foundations than then. As the butterfly flaps it's wings, we do not yet know where the cyclone will hit.

hello,

any ASF members buy in the last bust?

any ASF members lose out in the last bust?

thankyou

robots

robots said:

hello,

any ASF members buy in the last bust?

any ASF members lose out in the last bust?

thankyou

robots

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Is this an admission that there is actually a boom/bust cycle?

robots said:

hello,

any ASF members buy in the last bust?

any ASF members lose out in the last bust?

thankyou

robots

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I personally know a lot of people who lost their @ss. Connell was at my 21st birthday. I know plenty of the St Georges Tce corporate cowboys of the era.

A had lunch with one of these guys a couple months ago (who actually wrote a book on WA inc) and told me he lost 50 million at the time. Not all of that was property, but a lot was.

Some have never recovered.

Anecdotally, the majority of small developers at that time went bust and of the ones I know/knew, that certainly is the case.

hello,

you should re-read my posts kimosabi, I have never written, commented or denied anything about a boom or a bust, I have continually said that the good property is solid as

and challenge you to refute that

wayneL you mention high fliers and prop developers but what about the average joe holding one or two properties, thats what I would like to hear about?

in my case I had a unit in Elsternwick (suburb of Melb, nice 2-bed), mortgage of 70k, in 1986, didnt really think much of things at the time except I new I had to pay my mortgage

thankyou

robots

robots said:

hello,

you should re-read my posts kimosabi, I have never written, commented or denied anything about a boom or a bust, I have continually said that the good property is solid as

and challenge you to refute that

wayneL you mention high fliers and prop developers but what about the average joe holding one or two properties, thats what I would like to hear about?

in my case I had a unit in Elsternwick (suburb of Melb, nice 2-bed), mortgage of 70k, in 1986, didnt really think much of things at the time except I new I had to pay my mortgage

thankyou

robots

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The bust was early 90's and yes I know plenty that lost lot's.

One example. Somebody bought a canal property across the road from my folks at just under 300k. They spent nearly 100k on it and sold it at less than 250k in the bust.

Another: We lived in Biddaddaba. The acreage block across the road was bought for 207k, sold for 125K in the bust.

There are many more but I can't remember the exact figures.

Housing slump longer than predicted - The Australian, May 29th, 2007.

THE residential property slump is likely to last longer than initially predicted, with developers now saying building activity will probably not pick up for at least another few years.

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YChromozome said:

Housing slump longer than predicted - The Australian, May 29th, 2007.

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"We underestimated the downturn in New South Wales. I don't think anyone was expecting it to be this bad."

I picked up on the above quote in the article. The problem for all of these "Analyst's/Experts" is that I don't think they have a clue how hard some "working" families have it.

When your earning at least $250,000/year, which I'd expect most of these analyst's would earn, and you only hang around similar people who earn $250,000/year, live in expensive inner city apartments and drive Mercedes, you don't have a clue how tough the majority have it.

I wonder how many of these analysts get out into the suburbs and see first hand what's really going on.

NSW is a classic example of what will happen to the rest of Australia when our commodities boom ends, because other than playing with other people's money, digging holes and growing stuff, Australia doesn't have much else to fall back onto.