House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[robots]

Same as Devine Homes...slogan: Rent Money is dead money.

What a load of crap...as proven by many people on this discussion board that renting in many cases makes a far better investment than buying.

Again...take out the comercialism and put in the truth!

hello,

could someone give me say a 5 yr, 10yr or 20yr result on their success in renting?

i dont think so, many people always say renting the house is cheaper than buying the house, and that is true for typically the first 6-7yrs and therefore if you save/invest the difference you will be better off

who on the forum has done this over 5, 10 or 20 yrs?

but their would be plenty who have made themselves plenty of coin with the heavily criticized view of owning property

you can do both

any crash yet?

thankyou

robots

 

[krisbarry]

Just stiring the pot

 

[wayneL]

hello,

could someone give me say a 5 yr, 10yr or 20yr result on their success in renting?

i dont think so, many people always say renting the house is cheaper than buying the house, and that is true for typically the first 6-7yrs and therefore if you save/invest the difference you will be better off

who on the forum has done this over 5, 10 or 20 yrs?

but their would be plenty who have made themselves plenty of coin with the heavily criticized view of owning property

you can do both

any crash yet?

thankyou

robots

Long term it is better to buy a house at reasonable value. no question about that.

The value bit is the rub, there are times when renting makes more economic sense.

 

[Kimosabi]

Long term it is better to buy a house at reasonable value. no question about that.

The value bit is the rub, there are times when renting makes more economic sense.

Like now, when we are at the Top of a Worldwide Property/Liquidity Bubble...

 

[wayneL]

Like now, when we are at the Top of a Worldwide Property/Liquidity Bubble...

Yes, Si Oui, Ja, Da, etc etc etc

 

[Kimosabi]

Yes, Si Oui, Ja, Da, etc etc etc

What is most disturbing, is the ability to live in city that has just turned into a massive housing bubble, and meanwhile watch a housing bubble pop before our eyes in the US...

There is sooooo much to be learnt at the moment.

 

[Mousie]

When my missus came over to the comp I told her "they're talking about renting vs buying" on the ASF page I'm reading, and she said: "Again??!!"

LOL

Says it all really - both parties will believe and say what they wanna believe.

I'm a renter for over 5 years now, and will be eternally grateful for my landlords for allowing me a priceless opportunity to invest my hard-earned in the stockmarket. I truly wish them well, but will be looking to buy in when no one wants in to investment property any longer. The stockmarket has been where I truly earned multiples.

Whether you treat Warren Buffett with respect or contempt, this is what he said: "Why should I invest in property when I can do so easily and earn so much more in the stockmarket?"

 

[wayneL]

What is most disturbing, is the ability to live in city that has just turned into a massive housing bubble, and meanwhile watch a housing bubble pop before our eyes in the US...

There is sooooo much to be learnt at the moment.

In my target market (regional UK), the fear is indeed building. The press are turning bearish, the price graphs are rolling over, and the bears are starting to get that knowing smirk. Yet there is no shortage of muppets "getting into" BTL.

I'm in the interesting position of having some stock in the SW, but have never accepted that the current market value is real. They are not for sale, and haven't MEW'ed the equity either. Technically I'll lose a motza when it tanks.

But taking the broader view it will be a massive positive.

I don't want to live in a world of Victorian era landed rich and alienated working poor. We're supposed to have evolved past that. A working slob should be able to comfortably afford a mortgage on a modest house.

Look at the social consequences, is my view.

 

[wayneL]

In my target market (regional UK), the fear is indeed building. The press are turning bearish, the price graphs are rolling over, and the bears are starting to get that knowing smirk. Yet there is no shortage of muppets "getting into" BTL.

From "The Guardian"

They've tried to keep a positive spin, but reading beteween the lines, they know the MPC is between a rock and a hard place. Whatever they do now will damage the economy... &^%$ing Muppets!!!

UK housing market hits tipping point


Prices frozen or falling in most parts of Britain

Heather Stewart, economics editor
Sunday May 27, 2007
The Observer

Britain's property market is now at a turning point, according to research by property website Hometrack. It says house prices have stagnated or fallen in almost two-thirds of UK postcodes this month, as rising interest rates squeezed cash-strapped buyers out of the market.

In the latest evidence that higher borrowing costs are starting to bite, Hometrack's director of research, Richard Donnell, said prices rose in just 34 per cent of districts in May, and warned the property market was at a 'turning point'.

Article continues
'I think the impact of the rate rises, and the threat of more, means we're seeing more supply coming onto the market, and we're going to start to see the headline rate of price growth coming down in the rest of the year,' he said.

Martin Ellis, of the Halifax, said there had been indications that higher interest rates were taking a toll: 'We have seen a slowdown in the number of mortgages that have been approved, and fewer people registering as buyers,' he said.'

Mark Saddleton, group strategist at Nationwide, said the housing market was likely to show signs of slowing in the coming months. 'We are expecting affordability constraints to impact in the second half of the year,' he said.

Bank of England rate-setters have been taken aback by the strength of house prices, which have bounced back strongly since a slowdown in 2005.

The monetary policy committee has pushed up borrowing costs four times since August, to combat inflation. After the minutes of May's meeting revealed last week that the MPC contemplated a half-point rise, City investors are betting on at least one more increase, to 5.75 per cent, perhaps as soon as next month.

Ed Stansfield, of Capital Economics, said that with many borrowers on fixed-rate deals, it would take a long time for the full impact of higher rates to be felt; but predicted a 'transactions recession' over the next 12 months, with the number of successful sales falling, and 'limited or negligible' price rises.

News that interest rates are starting to hit house-buyers came as businesses warned the MPC against tightening rates too far. David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, said: 'Higher interest rates are already causing considerable pain. The MPC must curb the upsurge in inflation, but it must avoid monetary overkill that may cause long-term damage to business.'

 

[biff]

What is most disturbing, is the ability to live in city that has just turned into a massive housing bubble, and meanwhile watch a housing bubble pop before our eyes in the US...

There is sooooo much to be learnt at the moment.

I would put more faith in the bubble theory in Perth if the economy also was in a bubble, its not. House prices are based on availibilty of land, cost of building, average wages and amount of supply. If anyone thinks these factors are going to ease radically any time soon then they are severely mistaken. The resource boom that WA is experiencing atm and which is impacting on house prices is not a boom and bust cycle as we experienced in the 80's but is in a long cycle of demand perhaps even decades long for mineral resources. We will continue to see increased amounts of immigration and we will continue to see prices rise. Some eastern states twit calling himself a property expert and charging money for his regular newsletter was in the paper this weekend predicting a property bust in Perth based on in his words " people just wont pay the prices", of course the biggest resource boom in history didnt even factor into his thinking. Its a bit like buying a share thats gone up 100% and saying it wont go up any more by ignoring the fundamentals.
My personal prediction is a median home price in Perth of 1Mil within 5 years.

 

[wayneL]

I would put more faith in the bubble theory in Perth if the economy also was in a bubble, its not. House prices are based on availibilty of land, cost of building, average wages and amount of supply. If anyone thinks these factors are going to ease radically any time soon then they are severely mistaken. The resource boom that WA is experiencing atm and which is impacting on house prices is not a boom and bust cycle as we experienced in the 80's but is in a long cycle of demand perhaps even decades long for mineral resources. We will continue to see increased amounts of immigration and we will continue to see prices rise. Some eastern states twit calling himself a property expert and charging money for his regular newsletter was in the paper this weekend predicting a property bust in Perth based on in his words " people just wont pay the prices", of course the biggest resource boom in history didnt even factor into his thinking. Its a bit like buying a share thats gone up 100% and saying it wont go up any more by ignoring the fundamentals.
My personal prediction is a median home price in Perth of 1Mil within 5 years.

I'll bet you a carton of expensive beer on that.

 

[biff]

I'll bet you a carton of expensive beer on that.

I never gamble, just take informed risks.: besides, Ive got all the expensive beer i want, I was right about the last 5 years.

 

[wayneL]

I never gamble, just take informed risks.: besides, Ive got all the expensive beer i want, I was right about the last 5 years.

OK, a gold star for you then.

 

[biff]

OK, a gold star for you then.

Why not post your reasoning why prices in Perth wont go up instead of resorting to childish retorts?

 

[wayneL]

Why not post your reasoning why prices in Perth wont go up instead of resorting to childish retorts?

Pot?
Kettle?
Black?

Do some reading then, rather than being rude, Mr Gold-Star. I've written plenty on that subject already. All that is left now is to see how the future unfolds. It's not about the carton, it's like a "Trading Places" sort of bet. (Good movie, you should watch if not done so)

 

[Kimosabi]

Why not post your reasoning why prices in Perth wont go up instead of resorting to childish retorts?

WayneL, do you do this as a 'Tag Team'?

 

[wayneL]

WayneL, do you do this as a 'Tag Team'?

Tag-Team is good.

 

[biff]

Pot?
Kettle?
Black?

Do some reading then, rather than being rude, Mr Gold-Star. I've written plenty on that subject already. All that is left now is to see how the future unfolds. It's not about the carton, it's like a "Trading Places" sort of bet. (Good movie, you should watch if not done so)

Still waiting for your reasoning as to why house prices wont go up in Perth, O wise one.
and I do not agree with your statement here

A working slob should be able to comfortably afford a mortgage on a modest house

 

[wayneL]

Still waiting for your reasoning as to why house prices wont go up in Perth, O wise one.

There is nearly 1500 posts in this thread. You need not wait as, I repeat, I have written extensively... as have others. Read the thread.

and I do not agree with your statement here

So a man and/or woman who is/are gainfully employed should not be able to afford a modest house? Interesting.... and revealing.

 

[Smurf1976]

I was right about the last 5 years.

But will the conditions of the last 5 years likely be repeated? Will we really get to the point where interest alone takes 100% of average pay and home buyers with a mortgage don't eat? Do the math and it's seriously scary...