House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[thefisherman]

generally its only the unfortunate(fools) that bought at the peak of the frenzy last year that will get burnt, had 3 houses in western suburbs, sold 1, 2 years ago, also bought one just before sold other, can retire of these 3 deals, u will never get burnt in property if u have a eye for a bargain, if u buy in a frenzy u will nearly allways lose, quality property in perth will continue to go up in the coming years, crap in the outer fringe suburbs will go down or stay stagnant. banks and buyers fault. perth has noit many quality properties and the wealth that is being created here just gets bigger and bigger every year. per population we r richer than the kuwait's, we just send most of it east to pay for canberra and dole bludgers in sydney and melbourne.

 

[rockingham178]

not sure I don't live there...I do have 2 long term rentals in Bertram though.

Bertram has stalled a little and rents are rising rapidly with a shortage of rental homes. Some speculators are going to get burnt short term but medium term it is going to be just fine.

What i do know of rocky is that the forshore is very high now and sought after....waikiki is worth a look as is Madora in the older area.

Gold atm is Port Coogee

 

[rockingham178]

generally its only the unfortunate(fools) that bought at the peak of the frenzy last year that will get burnt, had 3 houses in western suburbs, sold 1, 2 years ago, also bought one just before sold other, can retire of these 3 deals, u will never get burnt in property if u have a eye for a bargain, if u buy in a frenzy u will nearly allways lose, quality property in perth will continue to go up in the coming years, crap in the outer fringe suburbs will go down or stay stagnant. banks and buyers fault. perth has noit many quality properties and the wealth that is being created here just gets bigger and bigger every year. per population we r richer than the kuwait's, we just send most of it east to pay for canberra and dole bludgers in sydney and melbourne.

People have been saying that about where I live for over 15 years. I bought for $109k and now worth over $700k....they don't say it anymore....

As for fringe areas it is an overlooked gold mine and many are winning because of that stigma. Bertram is 20 mins from Perth straight along the freeway and less with the new train line. Has new private and public schools and close to some of the best water in the state at Rocky and Pt Peron. Some have seen it and done well.

 

[Kauri]

Wayne,
I'm not sure if this is the same as per capita income, its the Full Time average weekly Ordinary time earnings..

 

[chansw]

A boom that ends in a bust... What a surprise (not).

Next we'll be hearing that debt has to be repaid and that present interest rates are anything but high.

As I've said before, I have nothing against Perth as a city but to suggest that houses there are genuinely worth more than those in Sydney is outright madness. It just doesn't stack up on any basis other than pure market momentum which now seems to be slowing if not reversing.

On tonight's Channel 7 Today Tonight program, it mentioned Perth house price is now more expensive than London and New York (That might be based on the multiple of average salary to the average house price). The economist from Access was interviewed and he said the house price in Perth may be stagnated (if it does not fall) for at least 4 years. His advice is renting instead of buying especially if your budget is tight. The house price in Perth has a lot to do with people's perception on the China growth story. I still remember in a Christmas dinner that someone said to me the commodity boom in Perth will last for 50 years. Personally, I don't believe there will be no bumps along the way. Have a look at the China's Shanghai Index, it has already gone up 10% in Jan 2007. It might be a bubble waiting to burst.
Let's hope it does not repeat the property bust like in Hong Kong (down 40% after 2000) and Japan (down between 50% and 90% since 1990).

 

[rockingham178]

Fresh air? Perth air quality is not that good.

You can catch fish and breath fresh air in a million places a hell of a lot cheaper than Perth.

Sydney, like it or hate it, is the financial capital of Australia, is the biggest city, has the highest per capita income, has a number of cultural augmentations relative to Perth. Sydney is a "world city", Perth is not.

Perth is a nice place for a certain type of lifestyle, but it should be relatively inexpensive... as it always has been up till about 3 years ago.

LOL...Sydney who cares what they think they are.....Melbourne will tell you they are the big boys....usual pissing comp been going on for decades.

yes Perth is a nice place to live and the lifestyle is great....but I prefer the Pilbara and that is more expensive than anywhere.

What the gurus eastern staters have forgotten is the mining boom isn't over...not by a long shot...and next the LNG projects will kick off on top of the biggest infrastructure expenditure of any state govt over the next 3 years.

Sydney the worlds wonderful place may have stalled (and canberra where the guru is never started) but WA is a long way from over. If think otherwise you don't know what is happening in WA atm.

The canberra guru is right about one thing... atm you are better of renting for at least 2 years unless you intend to stay in the home for a very long time and short term gain isn't important.

Sydney..."world city", rolol....now you will tell us sydney has fresh air......

 

[clowboy]

A boom that ends in a bust... What a surprise (not).

Next we'll be hearing that debt has to be repaid and that present interest rates are anything but high.

As I've said before, I have nothing against Perth as a city but to suggest that houses there are genuinely worth more than those in Sydney is outright madness. It just doesn't stack up on any basis other than pure market momentum which now seems to be slowing if not reversing.

Smurf, while I agree with your statement for the most part, what is it based on? Have you ever been to perth? I have never been to sydney so I can not really accurately comment which is better. Having said that, I am of the opinion, who the hell would want to live in sydney? And for that matter who would want to live in perth (hence the rise of mandurah).

What exactly makes sydney so much more apealing than perth? Why should sydney be worth more than perth (aside from population = supply+demand).

Personally they are both over priced in my opinion.

Funny also, there was an article in the west about a week ago where a REA in lodon was marketing an old storeroom in an apartment complex. The whole "unit" was 7.6 sqm. Kitchen bed, bathroom, everything. the asking price $427,000. Now that is overpriced, but aparently becuase it is the "place" to live, or so a work college from those parts tells me.

Ridiculas.

 

[clowboy]

Fresh air? Perth air quality is not that good.

You can catch fish and breath fresh air in a million places a hell of a lot cheaper than Perth.

Sydney, like it or hate it, is the financial capital of Australia, is the biggest city, has the highest per capita income, has a number of cultural augmentations relative to Perth. Sydney is a "world city", Perth is not.

Perth is a nice place for a certain type of lifestyle, but it should be relatively inexpensive... as it always has been up till about 3 years ago.

o o o

can't resist, is that like saying a stock should be at a $1 and not at 50c when you paid 75c for it?

Maybee the perth RE market should be something, but that doesnt mean it will be any time soon (although the sooner the better).

I also argue that perth is better than sydney as per previous post. As for it's RE value, well that is whatever fools are willing to pay for it at the time.

 

[wayneL]

Sydney..."world city", rolol....now you will tell us sydney has fresh air......

Non sequitur is a most disingenuous form of argument.

Ask anyone overseas what city they associate with Australia, the answer will be Sydney. Sydney is the only world city in Oz despite the delusions of others.

Fact.

Ciao!

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Fresh air? Perth air quality is not that good.

You can catch fish and breath fresh air in a million places a hell of a lot cheaper than Perth.

Sydney, like it or hate it, is the financial capital of Australia, is the biggest city, has the highest per capita income, has a number of cultural augmentations relative to Perth. Sydney is a "world city", Perth is not.

Perth is a nice place for a certain type of lifestyle, but it should be relatively inexpensive... as it always has been up till about 3 years ago.

And of what relevance is the aforementioned qualities of a 'World City' to real estate prices. Their are many factors that determine real estate prices...........views,lifestyle,rarity and often the solitude the location offers. A few of these that determine the mega buck status are not confined to 'World Cities'.

 

[theasxgorilla]

"Sydney ranks first, Melbourne debuts in top 10 in latest Anholt City Brands Index"

http://www.citybrandsindex.com/press-20070125au.asp

 

[wayneL]

And of what relevance is the aforementioned qualities of a 'World City' to real estate prices. Their are many factors that determine real estate prices...........views,lifestyle,rarity and often the solitude the location offers. A few of these that determine the mega buck status are not confined to 'World Cities'.

World city is a mere point foolishly contested above. No need to dwell on that point further.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

No offence Wayne but a real estate purchase is a big punt for most. Just like a big punt on the stocks.

Most would have done well on both in this particular economic climate, particularily on WA real estate. Lucky.....maybe, but certainly more foresight than others that would have squandered the opportunities (down the pub or on a new car, blah blah).

If you had enough sense to be into both you would certainly have enough sense to realize this thread is stating the bleeding obvious ., how best to not squander the proffits most would be considering.

So good onya to all that have done well.

 

[Deadcat]

Perth has been riding on the back of the mining boom for a while now and that is the only reason that prices have become so over inflated in the real estate market in my opinion. I know of many contractors who have come over from eastern states for mine set-up and infrastructure. They will be leaving as soon as their contracts are up and the mines are in full production which will be when staff are culled to operations and management. Sydney is a beautiful city and does not have the stinking hot climate that Perth has. It is sitting on the world's most beautiful harbour and is the business capital of Australia. There is a reason it is so populated and that is because people love living there. It is outrageous that Perth prices are a little higher than Sydney but that will fall back over the next couple of years when Perth goes through the bust.

 

[rockingham178]

Non sequitur is a most disingenuous form of argument.

Ask anyone overseas what city they associate with Australia, the answer will be Sydney. Sydney is the only world city in Oz despite the delusions of others.

Fact.

Ciao!

In fact more argumentum ad logicam...but an educated analogy just the same and both could be used out of context.

Your indicated pride in your city is a credit to you, I just happen to not entirely agree with your Sydney is best and all to everyone viewpoint. Yes if you went overseas and mentioned Australia you would probably get a response about Sydney or Melbourne. I would doubt at all if anyone would mention Perth, a fact I actually like very much as most Perth people I know do. Only once in all my travels in over 30 years has anyone mentioned Perth, mostly mentioned Melbourne and occasionally Sydney.

Does that make Sydney or Melbourne a better place to live? IMO no except in the eyes of the beholder. I would gladly live on the North or South coast of NSW though, absolutely beautiful locations.

I lived in Sydney for 3 years in the late 70's and could not wait to leave. NSW is a lovely place overall but Sydney left a lot to be desired.

 

[tech/a]

Whilst in the US I was pulled over 3 times and asked for licence and rental documents.

In UTAH response to South Australian licence.
Your a long way from PORTLAND.---well yes I was.

In FLORIDA.
You dont sound Australian??

In TEXAS
There seems to be a problem with our licence check we cannot find you on the data base so we will have to detain you until we find you!!!!!

 

[theasxgorilla]

In Victoria they're far more efficient. Cameras detect when you're traveling at 64km/h in a 60km/h zone and if you happen to be unregistered or unlicensed at the time the back-end database will correlate that information and issue you with the appropriate fines or court order. I'm currently holding RDF as they're signing up traffic camera contracts in the US hand-over-fist

The ASX Gorilla.

 

[The Red Baron]

On tonight's Channel 7 Today Tonight program, it mentioned Perth house price is now more expensive than London and New York (That might be based on the multiple of average salary to the average house price). The economist from Access was interviewed and he said the house price in Perth may be stagnated (if it does not fall) for at least 4 years. His advice is renting instead of buying especially if your budget is tight.

I did see that the other night. It seems the media in Perth lately have been flogging one way or the other. On programs like Today Tonight or A Current Affair or on the front page of the West Australian.

One day its going on about the mining boom and how much property is soaring then another day talking about the property market falling 20%. Would be interesting to have all these so called experts make their prediction for the year then come back to them see how good they actually are.

 

[YChromozome]

It seems the media in Perth lately have been flogging one way or the other.

I hope none of them are in anyway biased or quoting biased sources.

Zimbabwe's CPI is 1,281.1% YOY and overnight cash rate is 500%.

I have no doubt if Howard and Costello was running Zimbabwe, then the economy would be said to be in great shape, and the work of good economic management.

Simon Tennent from the [Zimbabwe] Housing Industry Association would say inflation is under control and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe will drop rates by 0.25%

 

[wayneL]

In fact more argumentum ad logicam...but an educated analogy just the same and both could be used out of context.

Your indicated pride in your city is a credit to you, I just happen to not entirely agree with your Sydney is best and all to everyone viewpoint. Yes if you went overseas and mentioned Australia you would probably get a response about Sydney or Melbourne. I would doubt at all if anyone would mention Perth, a fact I actually like very much as most Perth people I know do. Only once in all my travels in over 30 years has anyone mentioned Perth, mostly mentioned Melbourne and occasionally Sydney.

Does that make Sydney or Melbourne a better place to live? IMO no except in the eyes of the beholder. I would gladly live on the North or South coast of NSW though, absolutely beautiful locations.

I lived in Sydney for 3 years in the late 70's and could not wait to leave. NSW is a lovely place overall but Sydney left a lot to be desired.

OK misunderstandings here.

I don't live in Sydney and never would. I don't like it either. And I thoroughly agree it is in the eye of the beholder. Perth is a lovely place if you like certain things over others. I happen to like those things Perth doesn't have to offer, more than those things it does.

But that's neither here nor there as RE values are concerned. One of the major attractions of Perth has been the relative inexpensiveness compared to other capital cities. That is now (temporarily) gone.

There is absolutely no way in the wide world I would pay current Perth prices to enter the market... NO way.

Right now, I think Melbourne is the nicest spot... eye of the beholder n' all that.

Actually I'm shortly off to much colder climes fairly soon, so the arguement is moot. (for me anyway)