House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[wayneL]

...and the yields are cr*p."

...and are worse than they've ever been. :bad:

So called value investors should be shunning R/E as a pox upon the investment landscape until value returns.

 

[Jay-684]

I think the wealth is created more through creating/developing resi property rather than through ownership and the income it produces.

 

[YELNATS]

I think the wealth is created more through creating/developing resi property rather than through ownership and the income it produces.

It's always darkest before the dawn. I'm tipping a definite housing turn around by Christmas 2007 with Sydney out in front. Regards. YN

 

[Julia]

It's always darkest before the dawn. I'm tipping a definite housing turn around by Christmas 2007 with Sydney out in front. Regards. YN

You don't even have to wait until Christmas 2006 Yelnats: it was on today's news that property prices in the last quarter have moved up, yes, even iin Sydney where the rise was around 1.5% for the quarter.

What now, Realist????

Julia

 

[Realist]

You don't even have to wait until Christmas 2006 Yelnats: it was on today's news that property prices in the last quarter have moved up, yes, even iin Sydney where the rise was around 1.5% for the quarter.

What now, Realist????

Julia

Actually Sydney was down 0.5% Julia.

Us renters are having a field day!!!

Happy, happy, joy, joy, thanks for asking. :band

 

[Realist]

"Sydney prices were down 0.5 per cent on the same time last year. Mr Ryan said rental vacancies were "unusually low", suggesting scope for rent rises. "Yields are still low, especially in Sydney," he said."


From : www.smh.com.au/news/national/house-...sion-fears-grow/2006/08/24/1156012675593.html

I'll say it again, Happy, happy, joy, joy!!!

Anything to comment Julia?

 

[clowboy]

Realist,

I don't know where you are getting your stats from, but I agree with Julia

http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS...-growth-in-June/2006/08/24/1156012655087.html

It was also stated in today's west Australian.

 

[clowboy]

Well now I know where you are getting your data from, but I would sugest you read it again.

Down 0.5% on a year ago but still up 1.5% for the qrter which was the original comment made by julia, and possibly an indication that housing is on the rise again.

 

[Realist]

Realist,

I don't know where you are getting your stats from, but I agree with Julia

http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS...-growth-in-June/2006/08/24/1156012655087.html

It was also stated in today's west Australian.

Read the bloody link again - it says and I am cutting and pasting from said article "Sydney prices were still down 0.5 per cent on the same time last year."

So with 4% inflation, highish interest rates, and low rental yields (read the same article) you have no argument.

You're down alot if you own!!!

Renters are absolutely killing it at the moment. No argument.

Happy, happy, joy, joy!

 

[Realist]

but still up 1.5% for the qrter .

Do the maths with cheap rent (as stated in the article) and inflation at 4% home owners are losing. And down 0.5% on a year ago - that is one massive loss, HuuuuUUUGEEE infact!!! Do your maths again before replying - please.

 

[swingstar]

Everyone probably knows the US situation, but here's some more good* news FWIW:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/24/real_estate/pluggedin_tully.fortune/index.htm

* if you're a bear or gen-Y

 

[moola]

Phew! The end... this is one loooooooong ass thread... it's like the thread that never dies or something. People sure are attached to their houses. Me I just need a tent, a backpack and a laptop. There's plenty of couches between here and hollywood don't you worry about that.

 

[tech/a]

Do your maths again before replying - please.

Here are my maths

I/Ps I hold

I/Property 1 1996 Cost $92K Sold 2003 $190K
2 1997 Cost $118K still hold Rent return + $70/week on loan Valued at $290K
3 1997 Cost $110K contract for sale Sept 2006 $220K
4&5 1998 apartments Bought $170K each Still hold Rent return $100/week each above Loan Current valuation $420K Each.

There are 5 other I still hold 3 freehold but I wont go on as I'll be lablled a "Braggard"

As an example of Medium density developement I am involved with,some figures.
One developement completed in Morphettvale.
2 other before that.
10 Detached Apartments all sold for a total $600K return.
Was a 2 yr project.
Currently Involved in 1 other with 2 on the Planning board.

Yeh its Adelaide and its a Hick town.
Yeh its peanuts
Yeh but its real peanuts in my tin and not theory.

There is a big difference between theorists/ "Im waiting for prices to come down" camp.
And those that just DO IT.

Now Go do your maths I reckon it amounts to PEANUTS.-----Talks cheap.

 

[Bronte]

The majority of our property has been purchased with "No money down"
Borrowed the lot...even 'set up costs'.
What is the ROI here? The tenants and taxman have been paying the mortgage repayments for us.
Mostly new property and we claim full 'depreciation'

Just thought I would "Bump" this thread as there is some great information here

 

[krisbarry]

Some doe-brain was on the radio today saying that she expects a boom in Adelaide house prices over the next 5ish years. She still believes they are way under-valued!

She was some property guru, living interstate and was looking at expanding her property portfolio in Adelaide. She currently owns 30 properties around Australia (Greedy women)

Did she just crawl out from under a rock...Adelaide house prices have just boomed over the past 5 years...are now stagnent and/or going down.

She believes that the current mining boom will do what it did in Perth, in Adelaide too.

Somehow I doubt it very much.

Property in Adelaide has already increased 150% over the past 5 years, so I hardly see where this boom is going to come from.

I think the only boom she will see in Adelaide over the next 5 years is reposessions bought on by over-borrowers and higher interest rates.

Not unless she is just trying to spruke the market for her own self gratification...just another greedy property investor I say!

 

[wayneL]

Some doe-brain was on the radio today saying that she expects a boom in Adelaide house prices over the next 5ish years. She still believes they are way under-valued!

She was some property guru, living interstate and was looking at expanding her property portfolio in Adelaide. She currently owns 30 properties around Australia (Greedy women)

Did she just crawl out from under a rock...Adelaide house prices have just boomed over the past 5 years...are now stagnent and/or going down.

She believes that the current mining boom will do what it did in Perth, in Adelaide too.

Somehow I doubt it very much.

Property in Adelaide has already increased 150% over the past 5 years, so I hardly see where this boom is going to come from.

I think the only boom she will see in Adelaide over the next 5 years is reposessions bought on by over-borrowers and higher interest rates.

Not unless she is just trying to spruke the market for her own self gratification...just another greedy property investor I say!

A case of mistaking a bull market for genius.

Guys like Tech/A will be picking up cheap properties from the likes of her in the future

 

[wayneL]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4Naw1mqxCRw&refer=home

Housing Slump in U.S. May Lead to First Drop Since Depression

By Kathleen M. Howley and Matthew Benjamin

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Nancy and Brian Christopherson are asking $389,900 for their eight-room Colonial Revival home in Westford, Massachusetts, featuring a new kitchen with maple cabinets. Even at that price, they'll lose $14,100.

Monthly price reductions since they listed it in May for $429,900 have lured no offers for the house, bought for $369,000 in 2004. ``It's getting scary,'' says Nancy Christopherson.

The sharpest slowdown in U.S. home-price growth in three decades is trapping owners with mortgages they can't afford, pushing unsold homes to a record 4.42 million and gutting profits for builders such as Lennar Corp. and Toll Brothers Inc. The U.S. median home price next year may fall for the first time since the Great Depression, says Gabriel Stein, chief international economist with Lombard Street Research in London.
more..................................................

 

[YChromozome]

Not unless she is just trying to spruke the market for her own self gratification...just another greedy property investor I say!

Sounds like she needs to keep the Adelaide Market up, so whe can sell her properties.

Guys like Tech/A will be picking up cheap properties from the likes of her in the future

I'm an Adelaide boy. With cash sitting patiently in the bank, I'll race Tech/A to them.

 

[Smurf1976]

One sure sign that things have got out of hand is when traditional relationships disappear or are reversed for no obvious reason.

Adelaide is a nice place IMO but real estate there is simply not worth more than Brisbane or Melbourne. If a boom were to occur then it would overtake these cities unless there is also a boom in Melbourne too. Why would there be a new boom in Melbourne right now?

More to the point, there's no way that Perth is worth more than Sydney. Simply no way. Simple supply and demand - land isn't exactly scarce in WA. So either Sydney booms from here or Perth grinds to a halt. My money's on the latter.

And taking it to an even more ridiculous level, the cheapest property in Sydney is less expensive than the cheapest property in Hobart. Hobart does have its good points, but no way is it worth more than Sydney. If there were any fundamental basis then people would be leaving Sydney and coming to Hobart. A few do but in general there is no mass exodus from Sydney or mass migration to Hobart. Both have only slowly changing populations but Hobart has plenty of spare land that can be cheaply developed (apparently at well below current selling prices for houses - that says rather a lot...).

At some point we'll almost certainly go back to historic relativities between cities. Sydney most expensive, Hobart the cheapest of the state capitals and Perth cheaper than Melbourne. The only real reversal that might stand long term is Brisbane overtaking Melbourne due to lifestyle factors.

It's worth noting that relative to wages, Adelaide, Hobart, Melbourne and Brisbane are all at roughly the same valuation. The differences in nominal prices reflecting differences in wages. $40K is about average in Hobart, for example, and most Tasmanians would consider $60K as being "high income" whereas $60K isn't uncommon in Sydney or Melbourne.

 

[YChromozome]

Adelaide is a nice place IMO but real estate there is simply not worth more than Brisbane or Melbourne. If a boom were to occur then it would overtake these cities unless there is also a boom in Melbourne too. Why would there be a new boom in Melbourne right now?

This is my thoughts exactly. Some people say the Sydney market is two years ahead of the rest, and hence what is happening in Sydney will happen in Adelaide and the other capitals in two years.

However, when interest rates go up (what has triggered the high number of mortgagee sales) they go up in every capital city at the same time, not two years later than Sydney. The only difference is cheaper housing in other states mean those who have brought there may of not over committed as much as those in Sydney. But then it's really all relative to wages (ability to repay the loan) and poor justification.

And as Smurf has elaborated I can't see how Sydney can fall and not eventually pull the other states down with them.

Many Sydney siders had invested in cheaper housing in other states. I assume now they would look to cash in those properties, and reinvest back into their own state. Other Sydney siders have moved interstate to find more affordable housing. It's possible soon that residents in other capitals will move to Sydney for affordable housing (and probably better wages too). I've certainly put a bit of thought into it.