House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[numbercruncher]

Dear Property Bulls,


Does realestate go up on average 10p/c per annum , ie - Double every 7 years ?

 

[Kauri]

Just out...
House prices rose 3.2% in the December quarter, the same as the revised gain for September, to be 12.3% higher over the year, the strongest increase since March 2004. Prices rose by more than 20% in Adelaide and Brisbane, with Sydney lagging with only an 8.0% gain, still the best in three years. The house price boom might mean the hawks will be flying??
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Tysonboss1]

Dear Property Bulls,


Does realestate go up on average 10p/c per annum , ie - Double every 7 years ?

yes,... certain areas will achieve this growth rate

 

[numbercruncher]

yes,... certain areas will achieve this growth rate

That means Sydney is going to have one hell of a year, In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00.

 

[wayneL]

That means Sydney is going to have one hell of a year, In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00.

I love Excel

 

[stock_man]

That means Sydney is going to have one hell of a year, In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00.

Interestingly enough, working that calculation to give Sydney's current average house price (~ $540K) comes in at 5.1% per annum coumpounded.
This means a doubling every 14 years over a 119 year sample.

Wonder wait the average inflation is over this same period?

 

[moneymajix]

Cabinet approves first home owners' saving scheme
4-February-08 by AAP


Latest News


Federal cabinet today approved a scheme offering an effective tax break for aspiring first home owners, giving them incentives to save a deposit.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said cabinet had agreed on the first home saver account, first flagged during the election campaign.



http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/60415/Cabinet-approves-first-home-owners-saving-scheme

 

[theasxgorilla]

Interestingly enough, working that calculation to give Sydney's current average house price (~ $540K) comes in at 5.1% per annum coumpounded.
This means a doubling every 14 years over a 119 year sample.

Wonder wait the average inflation is over this same period?

Impossible to measure. You see how the CPI has been massaged in the last 20 years...but over 100+, forget about it.

Don't forget two periods of world war in there where price controls probably kept an artificial lid on things.

ASX.G

 

[robots]

hello,

just a quick one on Ruddie and government departments,

whats this 2020 talk fest, why do we need ministers and their staffers then if 1000 people are going to get together to discuss things

"oh we are going to cut spending" looks like they are spending up,

public servants, who needs them

thankyou

robots

 

[theasxgorilla]

You tell me Robi,

Your Labourer mate earns 60k p/a incl super, 55k after super, 40k after tax or 800 p/w.

This trashy house in Melton would cost 400p/w over 20yrs in repayments plus another 50 for rates/Insurance/Maintenance.

Your Labourer mate would have to spend well over 50pc of his take home pay to service it, Mortgage stress is defined as 35pc or more of your income going on housing.

Numpty you are so full of the proverbial.

Who takes a 20 year mortgage again? And when did a 60k job pay $800 a week?

10% deposit equates to $281 a week on a 30 yr mortgage (@ 8%). With $911 a week clear in income that comes to 30.94%. You, I, and anyone with half a brain reading this knows that %age can be brought down a number of ways.

Want a house in a less 'trashy' location and I think you'll find the missus will be heading off to work too. Or you'll need more than 60k a year in income. Or you'll need a bigger deposit.

ASX.G

 

[Joe Blow]

An interesting article from news.com.au today:

House prices up by 20pc

By Mark Schliebs
February 04, 2008 12:13pm

HOUSE prices increased by more than 20 per cent in two capital cities last year, according to figures released a day before the Reserve Bank decides on a possible interest rate rise.

While the average increase in house prices across the eight capital cities rose by 12.3 per cent in 2007, homes in Brisbane and Adelaide experienced an increase of more than 20 per cent, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Houses in Brisbane increased in value by 21.6 per cent in the 12 months to December, while homes in Adelaide went up 20.2 per cent.

More here: http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23155967-462,00.html

Good news for property owners in Adelaide and Brisbane.

 

[robots]

hello,

auction results for the weekend show clearance rate of 77%,

which is still pretty good with a small no. of auctions taking place,

many agents report buyers placing offers prior to auction with some vendors gladly accepting,

in Melb the aution season kicks of around the 23rd Feb with quite a few on that weekend, that and the following weekend will give bit of an indication of where it is at,

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Numpty you are so full of the proverbial.

Who takes a 20 year mortgage again? And when did a 60k job pay $800 a week?

10% deposit equates to $281 a week on a 30 yr mortgage (@ 8%). With $911 a week clear in income that comes to 30.94%. You, I, and anyone with half a brain reading this knows that %age can be brought down a number of ways.

Want a house in a less 'trashy' location and I think you'll find the missus will be heading off to work too. Or you'll need more than 60k a year in income. Or you'll need a bigger deposit.

ASX.G

Borerilla,

I made an error, mortgage stress is defined as 30pc or more of your income. Seems your calculator says hes in mortgage stress in Melbournes cheapest suburb.


Did you include Stamp duty/Mortgage reg/Rates/Insurance/etc/etc - Didnt include his super as income did you ? Whos handing out 8pc mortgages atm ?


Personally I think our Labourer friend should rent, Invest his deposit, salary sacrifice some extra to super, perhaps even buy an investment property for the tax deductions etc if hes that keen on a residential property .....

Each to their own though!

 

[numbercruncher]

An interesting article from news.com.au today:



More here: http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23155967-462,00.html

Good news for property owners in Adelaide and Brisbane.

Yes Stella Return for the Brisbanites!

Brisbane council has just slashed land development/Infrastructure fees, should temper things a little going forward one would summise!

The Benefit of hindsight is so wonderful, when I grabbed my first property back in 2000 there was still plenty of Houses and Units around G/coast Brissy under 100k, lend me your time machine comrade and ill go back and grab 10

 

[robots]

hello,

our labourer friend will also grab a handy 10k grant from the Gov's if first house, since everyone talking about FHBuyer's he is in,

should be enough to cover a few things, what if he had 50k as deposit, things also change

just to clear things up, around 60k for an EBA labourer is about right and excludes SUPER, PORTABLE SICK LEAVE, REDUNANCY, LONG SERVICE LEAVE which are added bonuses

not a bad gig

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes Yes, I know he can afford the House, my point is he fits the offical designation of Mortgage stress, and its the cheapest Suburb in Melbourne.

I checked out these pay rates and your correct Robots, BUT you need to work Saturdays to obtain the 60k

 

[robots]

hello,

if you work saturaday NC you get well over 60k, I think it is $357 for a saturday,

but here is an example of someone to get out of lets say a 40k job into a 55k with benefits way ahead of other jobs, (and the moaning starts)

FFS handout crew

who has portable sick leave? do you know what it is?

hangon, I just found that stat again from your higher authority the ABS, home owners some 5x wealthier than renters, so much for your strategy

thankyou

robots

 

[Mofra]

Do you have some stats on this? Or are you calling Renos investments? I guess it adds value to the house.

The data I have seen (Which I must admit I can't find now) suggests the bulk of it goes into Renovations (Kitchens, Bathrooms, additions etc) and Debt Consolidation. Naturally consolidating the Credit Card debt and other personal loans generally leads to further spending.

Other categories was Holidays, 4WD (O.k. any Vehicle inc Caravans), Education Expenses etc. I do remember other investments and investments in real estate, but they were under the reno & debt consolidation.

Possibly the data I have was a couple of years ago, and I would have no trouble believing after a couple of years of things only going up, the incentive would be there for people to bail into investments that well, you know, only go up.

I have worked in the mortgage industry for a number of years so I my figures are based on what I'm approving, our own broad figures (reg. vs unreg. debt) and what the vast majority of our "can we do this?" enquiries are. If there are broader figures available by loan volume (not number of loans), I'd be very interested.

As much as newspaper articles (most of them show up here incidently) want to paint the majority of borrowers as unsophisticated toothless hicks who are slaves to the machinations of macro-economic forces of which they are unaware, a surprising number of people actively recycle their household debt effectively, use their property portfolio as a source of credit for further investments, and retire surplus debt when the investment outlook is not as positive.

 

[robots]

A decade ago, a conversation like this would have been absurd. The fact that you're trying to argue that a 6-day-per-week tradesman can (barely) afford a **** house in a **** suburb speaks volumes about how unsustainable the current situation is.

hello,

ring the CFMEU tomorrow and get the rates for labourer's, it is not 6-day week,

I forgot, no hard work in the socialist model because everything is spread equal, just sit back with the handout crew

gee no need to get upset, had a bad day then go for a walk,

as usual suburb not good enough,

thankyou

robots

 

[Mofra]

Dear Property Bulls,


Does realestate go up on average 10p/c per annum , ie - Double every 7 years ?

No NC... only during the duration of this thread :