House prices to stagnate for 'years'
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theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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I totally agree, and did the same thing.
There is a shift in living, away from the house in the 'burbs and a 2 hour commute by car every day to apartment and townhouse living walking distance to local shops and public transport and a short taxi ride away from entertainment centers.
It's not by everyone or for everyone, as many still think the dream is a 1/4 acre block...but as things like conjestion and fuel costs increase it will look more and more like a dream, IMO.
numbercruncher
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So what do you reckon Robi, House prices upto 20x average Yearly earnings over next couple of years ? Buy now or youll live on a park bench ? Australia is running out of space for its 22m inhabitants ? Interest rates going up up up will make property jump in value ?
What about the 1.9pc Perth went up last year, is that a good investment as an owner occupier ?
What about the 1.9pc Perth went up last year, is that a good investment as an owner occupier ?
hello,
I think people would be very happy with 1.9% in Perth considering the ASX200 or the all "really" ordinary index has shed all its gains for 07,
the interesting thing with living inner as such is people re-examining the use of their time, and many are preferring the apartment or townhouse inner city than the new hous in outer city
albeit the costs are probably very similar but the inner feel is what gets people over the line,
yeah wages to average hous cost will get worse and money will get easier to get, its evident now that money is still readily available
thankyou
robi
I think people would be very happy with 1.9% in Perth considering the ASX200 or the all "really" ordinary index has shed all its gains for 07,
the interesting thing with living inner as such is people re-examining the use of their time, and many are preferring the apartment or townhouse inner city than the new hous in outer city
albeit the costs are probably very similar but the inner feel is what gets people over the line,
yeah wages to average hous cost will get worse and money will get easier to get, its evident now that money is still readily available
thankyou
robi
numbercruncher
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Hey looks like we are all starting to agree on something here, House prices doomed in favor of Inner ciity, is that what we are saying ?
Empty nesters, DINKS , lifestylers , Retirees, Green changers, Defaulters, Sea changers, etc all bailing out of the burbs you reckon ?
Empty nesters, DINKS , lifestylers , Retirees, Green changers, Defaulters, Sea changers, etc all bailing out of the burbs you reckon ?
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Im not sure thats true, I go into the realty office every two weeks and whack the super cheap rent on the CC for reward points (making it even cheaper rent
Sometimes I wonder how the people whom own this house I rent remain solvent, ahh the deductions, gotta love it, benefits us both at the expense of your hard earnt tax
Possibly they purchased the house a good few years ago, and are now enjoying a positively geared investment?
numbercruncher
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Perhaps, the house is brand new, maybe they had the land for years.
Property is "worth" 350k - I pay 15k a year rent , 2k gos for rates and Realestate management fee. = 13k p/a, plus they get their depreciation.
This isn't isolated check out Realestate.com.au pretty much same for any area.
Alot of faith resting with capital gain in the market!
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Some controversy to the title of this thread from the ABS site:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0
I understand they are stats, but interesting none the less.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0
I understand they are stats, but interesting none the less.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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wayneL
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What does BTL have to do with it? That's just a rationalization allowing you to deny the facts.
Prices in Ireland are falling.
As they are in the UK and much of western Europe... not to mention the US.
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This thread was started Sep 2005. If you had deferred your purchasing decision in Sep 2005, waiting for the 'inevitable' bust, you would have missed out on substantial capital gains in Melbourne, Perth, Hobart etc.
I think that the Melbourne market will start to take a breather now that interest rates are high. However inner city 'pads' will continue to appreciate as the long term demographic trend of the abandonment of the quarter acre block for the sense of community of the 'bohemian' inner city continues.
Proves two things -
1. get your timing right. No point being a pessimist to early; and
2. don't fight long term societal changes.
Unlike shares, the housing market is illiquid and not prone to the emotional peaks and troughs that the equities market investor has to endure.
I think that the Melbourne market will start to take a breather now that interest rates are high. However inner city 'pads' will continue to appreciate as the long term demographic trend of the abandonment of the quarter acre block for the sense of community of the 'bohemian' inner city continues.
Proves two things -
1. get your timing right. No point being a pessimist to early; and
2. don't fight long term societal changes.
Unlike shares, the housing market is illiquid and not prone to the emotional peaks and troughs that the equities market investor has to endure.
wayneL
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That said, there are many here in this market who are having to sell at 2005 prices. Some at even less (and of course some have done alright as well). It is this illiquidity that says IF you want to sell, too early could be good.
I ain't selling my earlier purchases, but I'm chuffed I didn't buy anything in 2005... very chuffed.
The scary thing about distressed folk trying to hold on here, is that it's only just starting to get bad.
My £0.02
hello,
you have been in denial for over 2 years wayne, although i do remember one post where u admitted things were going not as you thought
"house prices to stagnate for years" 17/09/05 it started and the denial is still going on yet the indicator many here use: average house price to average income is still as high as ever
thankyou very much
robots
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I take it you are living in the UK? Sorry my point was mainly about the Australian market. I live in Fitzroy North and the market has never been stronger. Phenomenal really when you remember that Collingwood, Richmond, Northcote, Fairfield and the like were all working class suburbs even up to the mid 90's. Now the old Melbourne flood plains have become well to do suburbs with property prices to match. Amazing really.
When I was living in London a few years back, I could not believe how expensive housing in the UK was. The Irish Tiger also caused Dublin house prices to sky rocket. I remember a friend of mine used to rent a stairway cupboard for 350 euros a month. No windows, no lighting etc. It all seemed rather unsustainable back then. UK personal debt is also at record highs so I can imagine the sell off will be severe.
wayneL
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I've readily admitted prices have risen, but have stuck to my macroeconomic view throughout, which is proving to be correct. It is only the perverse pseudo Keynesian nonsense which has propped it up all this time.
Denial? No. Early? Already admitted.
But they are only playing the overture now. The main show is yet to come.
wayneL
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click on the link in my sig. will give you a fair idea
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Coming to the outer-suburbs near you...
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...1201801094694.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
"Kim Quick, senior valuer at property advisers Herron Todd White, said increasing numbers of people were stuck in a housing trap where their home was no longer worth what they paid for it because it was over-valued when they bought it.
"A few years ago people were desperate to get on the housing ladder and were convinced that property prices were just going to go up and up," she said.
"Now they can't afford to stay but they can't afford to go either."
Last year, the company presided over the repossession of five neighbouring houses in one street in Kellyville, all within months of each other.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...1201801094694.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
"Kim Quick, senior valuer at property advisers Herron Todd White, said increasing numbers of people were stuck in a housing trap where their home was no longer worth what they paid for it because it was over-valued when they bought it.
"A few years ago people were desperate to get on the housing ladder and were convinced that property prices were just going to go up and up," she said.
"Now they can't afford to stay but they can't afford to go either."
Last year, the company presided over the repossession of five neighbouring houses in one street in Kellyville, all within months of each other.
numbercruncher
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From the article ....
So 7.5m Households in Australia .....
10pc in severe mortgage stress.
4pc of Mortgaged properties tipped to be in some level of default/repossession this year.
Mortgage rates will go up .5pc maybe 1pc throughout this year.
Maybe time to accumulate puts over the big four before mass exodus ?
Thing with the housing crash is its slow moving and well disguised by an obliging self serving media
So 7.5m Households in Australia .....
10pc in severe mortgage stress.
4pc of Mortgaged properties tipped to be in some level of default/repossession this year.
Mortgage rates will go up .5pc maybe 1pc throughout this year.
Maybe time to accumulate puts over the big four before mass exodus ?
Thing with the housing crash is its slow moving and well disguised by an obliging self serving media
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