House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[Kimosabi]

I find him kinda cute, in a mechanical kind of way.

He is a valuable warning for ASF and users would be realestate buyers of what to possibly expect when going to visit your local " friendly " realestate guy.

I still dont understand why people cant see that Average Houses at 8x average incomes is really really bad for so many reasons.

The antidote to ROBOTS is http://www.jenman.com.au/

 

[theasxgorilla]

So thats your guys genius solution ? If people whom want to own a property cant afford it, go get a partner and Quit your Job, be it a Nurse , Police officer or whatever and go earn more ?

You dont even consider for a moment this could be bad for society as a whole ? I for one do, and others agree.

NC, I'll tell you a little real life story. Good friend of mine left school at 18. It was a private school, he got lucky, it was the dying wish of a grandmother to pay the last 3 years of high school tuition at a private school. If you call not having the choice not to attend lucky. But I think it served him well...I digress.

First job, manual labour. Boom! Saw that coming didn't ya?? Digging holes and laying kerbs and drainage. Don't know if that's what his grandmother had in mind, but the award wages and his work ethic allowed him to save enough for a deposit on an old 2br house way out in the 'burbs. Eventually, when he'd decided he wanted something more he got a job working in IT. Nothing too sophisticated or advanced, but it was more satisfying, which he thought was important.

After work and during the weekends he would work on improving his house. All the while the market was going up. Later, he sold the house and bought another one. He also changed jobs a couple of times and managed to get his salary up to a point where he was making enough so that he could live his life and still have money left at the end of each month. Then he decided to realise his life dream of becoming a policeman. He quit his now quite high paying IT job, and started his career as a police officer. He also halved his salary. But when he ran the numbers (before making the decision) he figured he could manage.

And manage he did. That was over 5 years ago now. He sold and bought another house (of even higher value again) but still hasn't managed to get close to what he made in IT.

At no point during any of the above time did he have a dual-income household. But yes, he quit many, many jobs. And no, he is no genius either.

What's the point/moral. There are LOTS!

1) things have a way of turning out for the best, if you have a well thought out plan and you work hard
2) you gotta work man!
3) you'll be amazed what you can do (sacrifice) if you want something enough
4) sometimes you have a building up phase, other times you have a consumption phase...this is life for some. The alternative is to insist that your monthly pay should cover everything you want right now. Sound familiar? If you're part of the so-called Generation-Y then it probably does.

FWIW, in my opinion, market economies have a way of sorting themselves out. Socialist economies have a way of hiding deep systemic rot for very long periods of time. Do you pull your band-aids off slowly, or quick? Does it matter if it still hurts either way? I for one do think so, and others agree.

 

[wayneL]

FWIW, in my opinion, market economies have a way of sorting themselves out. Socialist economies have a way of hiding deep systemic rot for very long periods of time. Do you pull your band-aids off slowly, or quick? Does it matter if it still hurts either way? I for one do think so, and others agree.

It is indeed unfortunate that western economies have embraced aspects of both then.

Market economies with deep systemic rot and ludicrous malinvestmnet, supported and extended by a perverted form of Keynesian economics, AKA whatever the current tag is, AKA privatize profits and socialize losses.

Shoulda pulled the band-aid off in 2001 IMO.

 

[theasxgorilla]

It is indeed unfortunate that western economies have embraced aspects of both then.

Market economies with deep systemic rot and ludicrous malinvestmnet, supported and extended by a perverted form of Keynesian economics, AKA whatever the current tag is, AKA privatize profits and socialize losses.

Shoulda pulled the band-aid off in 2001 IMO.

Touche. And I agree in principal, but have managed to do alright since things bottomed in '02. Back then it was my industry that was suffering (IT, post-bubble) so I have appreciated the 'rescue package'. Will it be the same for real estate agents and bankers this time around? Time will tell. It may turn out that this time, due to not pulling the band-aid off quickly back then that there is no place left to pull a rescue package from.

 

[robots]

hello,

i see many people aged 30+ who are still renting and have been for many years prior,

as ASXG indicated, all of a sudden you have a couple on 100k, and there is plenty of opportunites to buy RE, thats 4x for the average house NC so keep up the bollocks

it is all smoke and mirrors, people want the Toorak mansion or the waterfront penthouse first up,

so everyone on struggle street how can they put money in super nc,

jenman is so old news kimo, how is the girlfriend's 20k debt still proud of that one, I am sure the housing industry will get the blame for that

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

What's the point/moral. There are LOTS!

1) things have a way of turning out for the best, if you have a well thought out plan and you work hard
2) you gotta work man!
3) you'll be amazed what you can do (sacrifice) if you want something enough
4) sometimes you have a building up phase, other times you have a consumption phase...this is life for some. The alternative is to insist that your monthly pay should cover everything you want right now. Sound familiar? If you're part of the so-called Generation-Y then it probably does.

Hello ASX,


I appreciate your sentiment.


I feel obliged to point out that my continued Interest in this thread is in no way a refelction of my personal circumstance.

Im certainly no Millionaire (pre-inheritence anyway ) , I have money invested in realestate ( in a land development and shares in a aged care company), I rent the house im in by choice at 1/3rd the cost of ownership and get much better returns for my money elsewhere.

If value returns to realestate or a bargain appears I may choose to go owner occupier for the third time, last two times where profitable but IMHO that apppears to be over.

My advice to young people, dont sacrifice your life for a silly overpriced house, work hard, be good to your mother, seek alternative investments, grab a surfboard, see the world, have fun, you will Inherit the Earth.

Oh and im not holed up in my grandmas basement, Im self employed and do/get as much work as i can be bothered with.

And if you do harbor ill feelings towards me, Ill add im not a bad bloke (even if I dont mind saying so myself) and respect everyones opinion.

Thankyou.

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

i see many people aged 30+ who are still renting and have been for many years prior,

Yes and the figures are severly worse for 20 somethings, people living at home for longer than at even given point in history and delaying having families longer and longer, home ownership amongst 20 somethings at a historical low.

Not good for society going forward.

I still maintain the odds are against young people, they often need their entire income to meet expenses, where as the older Generation who have already raised there family and outnumber them, already own their homes, and no longer "need" the income and have higher incomes get to salary sacrifice and pay only 15pc tax, this money then looks for a home to be invested, often finding its way into realestate.

One could argue that the Younger generation is effectively financing the retirement of the older Generation.

 

[robots]

hello,

a few suburbs and their rises for 07:

Bayswater 33.2%
Bacchus Marsh 36.7%
Berwick 6.6%
Blackburn 63.7%
Braybrook 57.4%
Burwood 55.2%
Seaford 25.3%
Somerville 16.7%
Sandringham 9.8%

thankyou

robots

hello,

doesnt appear to be over for many with just a few of the melbourne suburbs listed above,

young people are out popping pills, getting tattoo's, spending up at JB, seriously if you go to a music festival they are charging $9/ruski or like and the line is HUGE

and the owner of your house gets some nice capital appreciation for helping out society and in most cases by only putting a minimal amount of own money down

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes seems a stella performance for some Melb realestate, I hope it continues for you property investors.

once again you harshly and largely falsely judge the younger Generation, where you never young ? Are you suggesting the young should sacrifice their youth to pursue home ownership ? Should we be setting the Fun police onto them ? Maybe they should be getting second jobs on the weekend instead of hitting the music festival ?

Very unfair imho.

 

[Kimosabi]

and the owner of your house gets some nice capital appreciation for helping out society and in most cases by only putting a minimal amount of own money down

After listening to your drivel, I'm off to join the young people popping pills, getting tattoo's, and spending up big at JB.

Now the real question that needs to be asked is, where does all that capital appreciation come from? Oh, that's right, it comes from irresponsible lending and the reserve bank printing money like there's no tomorrow.

I'll be buying property with there's real estate spruikers blood on the streets...

 

[robots]

hello,

no no, the younger people will not save money, none

year's ago we had one outfit, one pair of trainer's, now its as many as the weekly wage can buy, this stuff has nothing to do with fun but self gratification

these things are what will ruin the younger generation in the future

most young people if the fridge went on the boil wouldnt have the CASH to buy a new one tomorrow yet with rents so cheap (as you tell us) they should be killing it

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Oi,

Stop mincing what I say.

I said rents are cheap comparitive to the cost of home ownership.

Im not sure these things will ruin the younger Generation in the Future, might not bode well for asset prices though if they have no cashola to pay asking prices

 

[robots]

Oi,

Stop mincing what I say.

I said rents are cheap comparitive to the cost of home ownership.

Im not sure these things will ruin the younger Generation in the Future, might not bode well for asset prices though if they have no cashola to pay asking prices

hello,

of course, that is already happening

and will get worse in the future,

thankyou

robots

 

[explod]

hello,

of course, that is already happening

and will get worse in the future,

thankyou

robots

]

How do you know that Robots, could you please explain????

 

[robots]

hello,

speak to people who we are talking about

is this another one of you're "tests" to keep me on my toes Explod?

thankyou

robots

 

[Lucky_Country]

No cash,no sales, no sales = prices drop !
Rental yeilds still dont justify prices being pais for the house.
With that in mind do home prices drop or rents jump my guess is house will drop as interest rates rising almost a foregone conclusion.
A period of elavated inflation code for higher interest rates

 

[krisbarry]

My Family home was purchased in 1999 at a cost of $150,000 (about 4.5 average male wages).

This same house now (2008) is worth $500,000 (about 10 average males wages).

Something doesn't compute here....

 

[robots]

hello,

what it adds up to is the cost to live in the best country in the world where freedom, chance and democracy are a given,

where a change in government doesnt cause death in the streets, people can get health care and enjoy life

thankyou

robots

 

[Kimosabi]

My Family home was purchased in 1999 at a cost of $150,000 (about 4.5 average male wages).

This same house now (2008) is worth $500,000 (about 10 average males wages).

Something doesn't compute here....

It's called a credit bubble, don't worry house prices will soon be coming back to their historical norm.

Australia is now at the top of the list for our housing prices to start crashing, I can smell it in the air...

 

[robots]

hello,

just for the record there has been 9 interest rates rises and many think a 10th is on its way, yet guess what, property is still rock solid

so the credit crunch is here and the thing people are losing money on is the bubble in share prices on companies like centro, MFS, allco etc

same with the property market in 03-04 where a lot of the development crap got affected and just like BTL in the Uk which is now being affected,

all the crap gets sorted out

goodluck

thankyou

robots