House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[Smurf1976]

These "low interest rates" never were here for the long term IMO and those who have borrowed to the limit are going to find themselves in very serious trouble. I am well aware that this is not everyone or even the majority but I do think there's more than enough in this situation for the consequences to be very serious indeed.

This is not to wish any specific outcome on anyone. But there's just no point ignoring the obvious. IMO it is far too late now to do much about it other than pursue whatever opportunities arise or alternatively just watch it all unfold. The time for warnings that might lead people to rethink has passed unfortunately.

 

[Milk Man]

I Dunno what you guys pay for milk but I thought a 3L was about $4 so the lowest cost would then be $1.30/L. Not sure: drink it straight out the vat! Pasteurised? Wonder why kids dont have good immune system response?

 

[Kauri]

Might be different here in the West but I have never paid more than $3 a litre. (YET)

 

[tech/a]

These "low interest rates" never were here for the long term IMO and those who have borrowed to the limit are going to find themselves in very serious trouble. I am well aware that this is not everyone or even the majority but I do think there's more than enough in this situation for the consequences to be very serious indeed.

This is not to wish any specific outcome on anyone. But there's just no point ignoring the obvious. IMO it is far too late now to do much about it other than pursue whatever opportunities arise or alternatively just watch it all unfold. The time for warnings that might lead people to rethink has passed unfortunately.

Smurf.

Your kidding!
You can do this.
(1) Sell the house and go rent.
(2) Take on a border.
(3) Fix rates
(4) take on a part time job.

Not to mention stop smoking,cut back on drinking,enjoy home entertainment more,take public transport,car pool,use shopper dockets---get outta here life is as hard as you make it!!!

 

[TrickyRicky]

hey all,

Krisbarry.... what can i say.. you sound like someone very unhappy with your lot and looking for someone to blame..

I am 27 years old and already have my own business and paying off my home, i am even thinking about buying another one... ( maybe...).

In my job i hear alot of people like you complaining about how the Gov. doesn't do enough to makje your life better... Why do you think they need to ??? What makes you different from someone born in Bangladesh??

Perhaps you should try to living in an area where the Government does not give you a thing in return but likes to take everything.. Buying a home was never easy... nothing good in life really is....

You should start looking at yourself first... put one foot in front of the other and start to Save... by that i mean save to spend(i.e. make more money).. don't blow it on your "lifestyle" in the city... but if you do then don't whinge about it..

my 102 cents

 

[Knobby22]

I tend to agree with you Kris, no need to hurry. Friends of mine sold recently and had to lower their property price to eventually sell. It was a a middle ranked suburb.

After a long time we are in a period where it pays to save as hard as possible. There is a slight possibility that rates may go down!
This is shown by the long term rates curve being so flat. If this happens it will mean we are in a recession so it won't be a disaster for you (if you keep your job).

Are you renting now? If so then it still may be worth buying short term. If you work out the rent you are paying, add say 25% for the new house, and can afford it, then it is worth considering as you will save in rent long term if you pay it down reasonably quickly. It is pretty easy to work out how realistic it is.

Also, don't forget, every year we bring in over 100,000 immigrants into the country that further increase demand so it is doubtful we will see a real crash and prices may not get much lower. You are in Adelaide which was not as overpriced as Melbourne and Sydney so the falls may not be at all large.

Also, if inflation raises its ugly head and you are not locked into a property, you may find you cannot save hard enough. Probably, interest rates will rise in this case and help you out anyway.

That's my 2c. (there was 102c in the post above but hey that's deflation).

 

[Knobby22]

I have to comment.

Who was Tina?
Why was she under a bridge?
Is she still there (buried?).
Is the bridge over troubled water?

I will finish before I go too far and someone tells me to build a bridge and get over it.

 

[Julia]

I have to comment.

Who was Tina?
Why was she under a bridge?
Is she still there (buried?).
Is the bridge over troubled water?

I will finish before I go too far and someone tells me to build a bridge and get over it.

Knobby,

I'm still laughing. Good sense of humour.
Tinaunderthebridge: sorry to "go on" about the name, but I think you have a few people curious???


Julia

 

[krisbarry]

More debate...I love it!

I am very happy to wait for a house at an affordable price, and if that means a few years wait, thats kewl with me.

I aint moving out the city, I will just wait, and save, and let the market correct itself.

 

[tech/a]

Kris.

Ive asked this before but no response.

What price do you think houses that you'd be interested in will go From-To.?
What do you think interest rates will be at the time you buy?

IE
Now $250,000 to $100,000 in 2 yrs
Interest rates from 6.5% to 8%

 

[krisbarry]

Probably best if I don't give too many figures, as it will just end up in more fights between you and I.

Lets just say that market corrections in some state have been seen and there will be a knock of affect felt right around Australia.

My prediction over the coming 1-3 years is a 25%-40% fall in prices on the average Australian suburban home and a 1% increase in interest rates.

Over the past 4 years most average suburban homes have risen by 100% - a market corretion is immanent

Plenty of reports have also pointed out that Australian homes are way over-priced (as much as 25%)

 

[Knobby22]

I can see you Kris sitting at home.

The phone rings, it's the real estate agent.
He/she/it tells you that the three bedroom beachfront mansion owner is willing to sell his house for only $300,000 and his name is Tech/a.

You say to the agent before you hang up the phone: "Tell him he's dreamin' "


(Someone is!)

 

[Milk Man]

LOL- you should be a comedian knobby!

Milk is over $4 for 3 litres out here. It would have to get shipped 400k to be processed then the same back though! I should just start my own factory. Munny Milk? Milk money- Mundubbera: might be onto something there.

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf.

Your kidding!
You can do this.
(1) Sell the house and go rent.
(2) Take on a border.
(3) Fix rates
(4) take on a part time job.

Not to mention stop smoking,cut back on drinking,enjoy home entertainment more,take public transport,car pool,use shopper dockets---get outta here life is as hard as you make it!!!

I think you've misunderstood me here tech. I meant it's too late to do much to help other people who have borrowed as much at variable rates as they could get etc. It's too late, for example, to educate them to not have such huge leverage in the first place and it's too late for them to repay without a flood of asset sales which would tend to force prices down (indeed this is exactly what I think may ultimately happen and is the basis of my concern).

Smart people fix rates, keep leverage sensible etc. But many don't and they're the ones I'm talking about. I do think there are enough people in this category to be a problem but I acknowledge that is an assumption which can not be proven unless/untill something happens.

Personally I don't have any debts whatsoever (unless you count leverage via a forex broker as being a form of borrowed money) and have already done or was never in a position to do (because it doesn't apply) every point you mentioned except car pooling. I'm as prepared as I could reasonably be but IMO there are quite a few people who are in a very different situation and are still doing nothing about it. If/when rates rise they will find themselves in big trouble IMO.

 

[Rockon2]

Ive been away for a couple of days, come back and !!!!!!

"Tinunderthebridge " Has Hairy Legs ! ArGgrrrrr!!!
There goes the mental image of a real nice looking Female Stock Trader..

AArrrrrggghhhhhhh...........


Sorry Tina

 

[Rockon2]

Oh and have a giggle at this site,,,,Especially the Q and A...


http://www.trademe.co.nz/Electronics-photography/Other/auction-36725938.htm

 

[brisvegas]

if fixed rate interest is any guide rates arent going anywhere in a hurry. with 3 year fixed rates lower than 1 and 2 years rates the banks are betting on rates going down imo

http://www.infochoice.com.au/banking/homeloans/compare/tables/summary/oo/NSW.asp


................. Pete

 

[dutchie]

I did not realise that Kiwis were that funny!

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I have to comment.

Who was Tina?
Why was she under a bridge?
Is she still there (buried?).
Is the bridge over troubled water?

I will finish before I go too far and someone tells me to build a bridge and get over it.

I think we'll leave the Snake Pliskin thing there.

I will in due course change my user name to something a bit more mainstream.

Knobby 22, what's the origin of that? Who's Knobby? An equally ridiculous question don't you think?

Bye there, Knobby!

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Probably best if I don't give too many figures, as it will just end up in more fights between you and I.

Lets just say that market corrections in some state have been seen and there will be a knock of affect felt right around Australia.

My prediction over the coming 1-3 years is a 25%-40% fall in prices on the average Australian suburban home and a 1% increase in interest rates.

Over the past 4 years most average suburban homes have risen by 100% - a market corretion is immanent

Plenty of reports have also pointed out that Australian homes are way over-priced (as much as 25%)

Kris,

You are generalising about the knock on effect of property decreasing. There are areas that won't drop but conversely will go up. Do your research and find those gems that will make you money.

The average suburban home is state and city specific, not country wide. There are and will be big differences among the states of Australia.

Why is a market correction immanent? What is your information that compels you to say that? We still have people in need of housing, though the oversupply situation in some states has softened the market.