House prices to keep rising for years

[numbercruncher]

Heres a great way to roughly keep tabs on how quickly properties are flooding onto the market, over at domain you can search and get a total number of listings, last night at 8pm I did the whole of QLD and there was 55 862 listings, this morning there is 55 907 - these agents must be keen to stay up late listing on a Friday hey ?

I will be interested in doing it daily during the week as listings seem to be just skyrocketing pretty much nationally ....

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/SearchResults.aspx?mode=buy&State=QLD&Areas=Brisbane+City%2cOuter+Northern+Suburbs%2cEastern+Suburbs%2cOuter+Southern+Suburbs%2cIpswich+%26+Region%2cSouthern+Suburbs%2cNorthern+Suburbs%2cWestern+Suburbs%2cCentral+Outback%2cSouth+Western%2cMt+Isa+%26+North+Western%2cBundaberg+%26+Wide+Bay+Region%2cRockhampton+%26+Region%2cMackay+%26+Whitsundays+Region%2cCairns+%26+Region%2cTownsville+%26+Region%2cFar+North%2cGold+Coast+%26+Hinterland%2cToowoomba+%26+South+Eastern%2cSunshine+Coast+%26+Region&agid=

 

[robots]

hello,

60% clearance rate for melbourne yesterday,

i went to two auctions, bids at both, but both passed in

one is an absolute best buy now at the reserve they have on it,

fantastic stuff,

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

60% clearance rate for melbourne yesterday,

i went to two auctions, bids at both, but both passed in

one is an absolute best buy now at the reserve they have on it,

fantastic stuff,

thankyou

robots

Yes its also Interesting to see the breakdown, I love how they work it out, read it as you will

S Sold at Auction: 360
SB Sold before Auction: 111
SA Sold after Auction: 7

Passed in: 317
Passed in on vendor's bid: 226

Clearance rate: 60%

Total Auctions
This week: 795
Last weekend: 363
This time last year: 599

PS Private Sales: 556

Total Volume (Auctions): $323.92mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $228.04mil

Total Auctions Houses: 535
Clearance Rate: 58%
Median Price: $610,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 238
Clearance Rate: 63%
Median Price: $431,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 22
Clearance Rate: 73%
Median Price: $400,000

 

[robots]

hello,

great site for those interested in melbourne architecture/property, those who walk the streets enjoying the wonderful city:

http://www.walkingmelbourne.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=4

thankyou

robots

 

[Macquack]

hello,

60% clearance rate for melbourne yesterday,

i went to two auctions, bids at both, but both passed in

one is an absolute best buy now at the reserve they have on it,

fantastic stuff,

thankyou

robots

Hey robots, why did'nt you buy it, if it was such a steal?

You seem to go to a lot of auctions. Are you employed by a real estate agents as a "dumby bidder"?

 

[robots]

hello,

dont have the money to buy it, i am looking to upgrade over the next 5 yrs so checking out some buildings,

just doing research macquacker unlike the many armchair experts,

have dummy bidded before but no I am not employed by re agent

thankyou

robots

 

[YChromozome]

Sounds like a time consuming hobby you have there, Robots. Why don't you do what domain.com.au says and "Buy now and get your life back"

 

[robots]

hello,

quite enjoyable actually, get the pushie out, walkman and of you go

admire the buildings as I go

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

have dummy bidded before but no I am not employed by re agent

Besides being unethical, is that Legal ?

 

[robots]

hello,

is illegal for a re agent to dummy bid,

no longer can tree's, rubbish bins or power poles place a bid

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Little Birdy tells me Brisbane clearance rate well under 30pc this w/end .... This must still be the denial phase ?

Maybe theyve packed up the Landrovers and headed back to you Robi ?

 

[Macquack]

hello,

is illegal for a re agent to dummy bid,

no longer can tree's, rubbish bins or power poles place a bid

thankyou

robots

Does that mean deforestation, recycling and underground power are having a negative effect on auction clearance rates!

Going, going, gone.

 

[robots]

hello,

gee number, i thought you would of banged this one up on the board today:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

great effort, the ABS is as honest as the day

thankyou

robots

 

[Mofra]

Little Birdy tells me Brisbane clearance rate well under 30pc this w/end .... This must still be the denial phase ?

Maybe theyve packed up the Landrovers and headed back to you Robi ?

Maybe that'd explain the 4.1% gain in Melbourne for the quarter?

(This should be fun...)

 

[CAFA1234]

hello,

dont have the money to buy it, i am looking to upgrade over the next 5 yrs so checking out some buildings,

just doing research macquacker unlike the many armchair experts,

have dummy bidded before but no I am not employed by re agent

thankyou

robots

Robots, if you are 'thinking' of buying / upgrading over the next 5 years, then why would you be such a bull. It's in your interests if there is a really big crash so you can buy cheap?

 

[CAFA1234]

Just to update you on the US side. Los Angeles times reports in detail on a county each week. Last week was San Fernando, as you will recall down 35%. This last week was Riverside and San Diego counties.

All of these are from county records for transfer taxation, so are a matter of fact rather than the bull.

March taxation returns - e.g. sales in Jan / Feb in the main.
Riverside and San Diego -
Median house price $290k down 30.1% from March 2007
Median condo price $309k down 7.8% from March 2007

N.B. there are few condos in this area with only 6 out of 30 zip codes showing sales at all. One Condo code was down 42.7%, and 2 codes were about same as last year, thus the 7.8% combined reduction.

For the houses 1 code showed a 2% increase, and the worst was -53%, High 20% and 30% was the norm.

The number of sales in each code varied from 3 to 70. The % drop for the codes with the highest sales numbers were 70 sales -30%, 46 -28%, 45 -27%, 37 -28%, 36 -27%, 35 -23%, 31 -39%, 31 -39%.

It would be good to see same breakdown by postcode for the major Aussie cities, as I'm sure it would be equally varied. Does anyone know where this can be obtained?

----------------------------
More buyers are backing out of contracts for new houses. L.A.Times Sunday 4th May. "Nationwide builder, Toll brothers saw 28% of buyers cancel in the first quarter of this year. Dallas based Centex Homes cancellation rate was 33% in the third quarter of 2007 in a report to investors. NVR homes which builds NV homes and Ryan homes saw a 37% cancellation in the third quarter of 2007."

These means that thousands of people are walking away from a 10% deposit. Can't be good for house prices or the individual.

It was reported that builders are including promissory notes in there contracts, often buried deep within the many pages of sale contract which put the purchaser on the hook for another 10% if they walk, in an attempt to stem the cancellation rate.

 

[robots]

Robots, if you are 'thinking' of buying / upgrading over the next 5 years, then why would you be such a bull. It's in your interests if there is a really big crash so you can buy cheap?

hello,

i am not a bull, many have made that assumption, repeatedly I have commented i wouldnt have a clue what is going to happen

i am very much for saving hard and investing money into shares and property yourself with the PPOR being for most a substantial investment (wealth creation),

in 10, 20, 30 yrs it will still be a way of people to release capital (via downsizing, suburb change) to "prop up" retirement

thankyou

robots

 

[Aussiejeff]

hello,

i am not a bull, many have made that assumption, repeatedly I have commented i wouldnt have a clue what is going to happen

i am very much for saving hard and investing money into shares and property yourself with the PPOR being for most a substantial investment (wealth creation),

in 10, 20, 30 yrs it will still be a way of people to release capital (via downsizing, suburb change) to "prop up" retirement

thankyou

robots

robi - all your assumptions are based on the "dreamy" fact that in 10, 20, 30 years time, the price of services and goods THEN will be proportionately the same as they are TODAY (especially the price of fuel for transport) and that property will have remained "king" and values continued to rise inexorably.

However, what do you think would happen to the demand for outer metro housing in ALL Australian cities, if as a result of an "unforeseen" drop in world oil reserves or an "unforeseen" calamity that significantly reduces world oil production for months on end?

What if such a scenario rapidly lifted the price of petrol here to $2, $3, $4+ a litre? You seem to be betting 100:1 that this scenario cannot and will not happen. That there is no current or future risk?

Sorry, but I'd be hedging my bet, since IF such a scenario presents itself in the next few months or years (surely a possibility given the current flux of the world?) I would predict the value of outer suburban housing in OZ to plummet like a lead brick and the subsequent economic fallout for many desperate outer suburban familes would then be unthinkable.

In a worst case scenario, inner city areas could become ghettos as outer suburban "economic refugees" flock to the streets of the city centres to try and survive. Oh, but of course - that could never happen. Only in other countries.

Sorry to provide a flip side to the coin. I was an "old school" boy scout in the 60's. You know - be prepared for anything .. including the worst!

Cheers?

AJ

 

[ROE]

robi - all your assumptions are based on the "dreamy" fact that in 10, 20, 30 years time, the price of services and goods THEN will be proportionately the same as they are TODAY (especially the price of fuel for transport) and that property will have remained "king" and values continued to rise inexorably.

However, what do you think would happen to the demand for outer metro housing in ALL Australian cities, if as a result of an "unforeseen" drop in world oil reserves or an "unforeseen" calamity that significantly reduces world oil production for months on end?

What if such a scenario rapidly lifted the price of petrol here to $2, $3, $4+ a litre? You seem to be betting 100:1 that this scenario cannot and will not happen. That there is no current or future risk?

Sorry, but I'd be hedging my bet, since IF such a scenario presents itself in the next few months or years (surely a possibility given the current flux of the world?) I would predict the value of outer suburban housing in OZ to plummet like a lead brick and the subsequent economic fallout for many desperate outer suburban familes would then be unthinkable.

In a worst case scenario, inner city areas could become ghettos as outer suburban "economic refugees" flock to the streets of the city centres to try and survive. Oh, but of course - that could never happen. Only in other countries.

Sorry to provide a flip side to the coin. I was an "old school" boy scout in the 60's. You know - be prepared for anything .. including the worst!

Cheers?

AJ

Just my two cents, you are also assuming there is no alternative to oil ..
there are plenty of other energy that can drive the car .. LNG and LPG
which Australia has enough to feed the world

I'm no pro property but such scenario I don't think will happen.
as long as human ever exist on this planet we always manage to find a different source of energy to power us along.

Remember the British empire predict it the end of civilization when we run out of coal back in 1800?, then we discover Oil .. when oil dies we discover LNG/LPG and Cold fusion

as for property remember the good old compound formula it can not keep growing there will be a period of price fall and long period of stagnation.

you can go back in time and see

you can see that as recent as 1975-1990 where price go no where but actually drop from 1975 to 1980 then flat for 10 years

before that it's 1930 to 1950 where price doesn't goes any where. Before that 1895-1920.

and I can see price drop or stagnant for the next 10 years from here on

 

[CAFA1234]

However, what do you think would happen to the demand for outer metro housing in ALL Australian cities, if as a result of an "unforeseen" drop in world oil reserves or an "unforeseen" calamity that significantly reduces world oil production for months on end?
What if such a scenario rapidly lifted the price of petrol here to $2, $3, $4+ a litre? You seem to be betting 100:1 that this scenario cannot and will not happen. That there is no current or future risk?
AJ

Aussiejeff - a reasonable call ,if extreme

Much of the pain in the US is in new build outlying areas where low income people decided they could drive the 30/50/80 miles into L.A. (as an example) to do minimum wage jobs. With Gas going up about 40/50% in the last 2 years it has started to become an issue. I'm not saying this is the only, or even the biggest cause, but it maybe a tipping point situation. If you can't afford to pump the gas then then you can't drive to work to earn your miserable wage to pay a mortgage on a depreciating asset. Answer - walk away.

Not 10/20/30 years... it's happening now, albeit on a smaller scale

PS it doesn't help to be driving a truck