House prices to keep rising for years

[Kauri]

And....? Sorry, but I'm missing the point.

Is this in reference to another post, some specific information, or media report. Is 'building approvals' for single family dwelling or unit or both, in Wagga Wagga, or Timbuktu. Are they down on the Month or the Year, and how does that compare with historic numbers?

You'll have to forgive a Brit turned Aussie living in the US at times for being a tad dense.

Can you articulate a little more.

As a person who has his hand in three properties in Aus, has bought and sold in the UK, and probably in the US.. , who quotes case schillers, et al,.. I wouldn't have thought that a simple thing like building approvals in Aus would get past you... or are you just looking for ... a discussion.... to fill in your day???

Have a good one..
Kauri

 

[CAFA1234]

As a person who has his hand in three properties in Aus, has bought and sold in the UK, and probably in the US.. , who quotes case schillers, et al,.. I wouldn't have thought that a simple thing like building approvals in Aus would get past you... or are you just looking for ... a discussion.... to fill in your day???

Have a good one..
Kauri

Kauri, As in my last post, there is no point in continuing this discussion as it is based on data that I'm not aware of.

Please remember that not all posters are living in Aus and therefore some reference to a media report, with at least some basic detail would assist.

I'm not sure what my property investing over a period of 25 years has to do with this - I've tried to add value to each post, by quoting reference material in the hope of expanding any discussion, or by expressly stating that something was my view or even a guess. I've made money, and I've lost money and been very open at all times, and where I have quoted my experince then that's just as it was - no bull, just fact.

Good day to you Sir.

 

[Kauri]

Kauri, As in my last post, there is no point in continuing this discussion as it is based on data that I'm not aware of.

Please remember that not all posters are living in Aus and therefore some reference to a media report, with at least some basic detail would assist.

I'm not sure what my property investing over a period of 25 years has to do with this - I've tried to add value to each post, by quoting reference material in the hope of expanding any discussion, or by expressly stating that something was my view or even a guess. I've made money, and I've lost money and been very open at all times, and where I have quoted my experince then that's just as it was - no bull, just fact.

Good day to you Sir.

Sir,
I would have loved to quote myself, but as my post was in reference to tomorrows financial story in the mass press, and that at the time of posting it wasn't even in the on line press, it would have been a tad difficult.. no??
Tomorrows paper delivered today, now that was the point of my post... I leave intellectual discussion to the intellectuals... one of which I am not..

and a good night to all..
a smuggled Budgie..

 

[wayneL]

I leave intellectual discussion to the intellectuals...

There would be no discussion at all around here then. :

 

[CAFA1234]

Building Approvals for March - Australia

Thomson Financial News - 1st May

Private-sector house building approvals dropped 5.8 percent to 8,611 in March from February, and was 1.0 percent lower than a year ago.

Other private-sector dwelling approvals inched up 0.3 percent to 3,753 for the month and were up 4.3 percent on year.

The trend estimate for total approved dwelling units fell 2.1 percent for the month but rose 1.8 percent compared to a year earlier, the ABS said.

-----------------------------------
Despite the headlines and expectations from the financial markets it looks as if the YoY figures are not too bad considering 2007 was still a building boom in many parts of Aus. It would be nice is someone could give up the numbers for a 5 year period to see the trend line. I not sure what the trend line in the article refers to.

 

[Macquack]

I was listening to the radio today, I think it was the ABC(Australian Brainwashing Corporation) and they had some "Real Estate" expert on that was saying the main reason Building Approvals had dropped was because of the heavy rains in Northern Queensland.

I couldn't work What the F^ck heavy rains has to do with building approvals unless they don't have roofs on their offices in Northern Queensland.

Kimy, I like your style.
By the way, keep bashing the banks (maintain the rage or outrage or whatever).

 

[numbercruncher]

Nice little chart here for you all showing the giant leap in property listings both YOY and from Jan to Feb this year.

From Jan to Feb weve seen nationally the amount of stock for sale leap some 50pc odd for houses , 132k in Jan to 195k in Feb and all indicators showing this is escalating?

 

[robots]

hello,

thats great news number, plenty of choice (ie. suburb, architectural style, near a train station or tram line etc)for the homeless if they decide to get with society

thankyou

robots

 

[Pommiegranite]

Nice little chart here for you all showing the giant leap in property listings both YOY and from Jan to Feb this year.

From Jan to Feb weve seen nationally the amount of stock for sale leap some 50pc odd for houses , 132k in Jan to 195k in Feb and all indicators showing this is escalating?

View attachment 20653

Great. Hopefully the extra listings will go someway to satisfying the unsatiable demand.

Reason they're not selling?

It's like buying house furnishings/electronics/white goods 2 weeks before XMAS i.e Most people wait until the post XMAS sales.

It doesn't mean that the demand isn't there. In a true property market recession, the demand wouldn't be there even at reduced prices.

 

[theasxgorilla]

It doesn't mean that the demand isn't there. In a true property market recession, the demand wouldn't be there even at reduced prices.

In a true market recession, crash, "the party is over", whatever, one would also expect to see the supply side actively seeking demand at lower prices. Token examples notwithstanding, I don't get the impression we're seeing that yet in most capital cities.

 

[wayneL]

Jeff Randall of The Torygraph has been one of the very few journalists cautioning against the housing bubble over a period of years. He's been a bit muted before now about it, understandable really, anyone with dissenting views against the housing bubble was treated to mock and derision. Heretics or lunatics who should be boiled in oil... or at least committed to an institution for the criminally insane.

But Jeff is in full flight now, one of many excellent articles coming from him recently: The Death Of Common Sense

Snip:

Applying common sense as a first principle of intelligent behaviour is, of course, common sense. Few advise against it and those who do, insisted the 18th century Scottish thinker Thomas Reid, are usually "philosophers" or "insane". He said: "It is appropriate to ridicule the denial of common sense."

Yet, somewhere, somehow in the gold rush years of this millennium, old-fashioned common sense became démodé. It was replaced by what former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan called "irrational exuberance", a throbbing desire to believe fantasies.

Undaunted by having lost his shirt in the dotcom debacle of the 1990s, the Eternal Optimist has borrowed a new one, cranked up the credit cards and piled into property.

A great deal of what is now wrong with our economy and financial system - too much debt, neurotic banks and a crumbling housing market - was caused by the simple failure of starry-eyed shoppers, credulous investors, irresponsible lenders and reckless borrowers to ask themselves if what they were doing would pass the commonsense test. Much of it did not.

SNIP:
Mackay concluded that men go mad in herds, but only recover their senses one by one. Thus common sense is abandoned more readily when everyone else is at it. If nobody poses the inconvenient question, nobody needs to come up with the unacceptable answer. It is a conspiracy of silence.

This phenomenon is not restricted to the United Kingdom. In most parts of the world where speculation is rife, common sense is hard to find.

In America, a master of financial sophistry invents a scheme to turn the mortgage debts of over-borrowed welfare claimants into AAA securities. The obligations of a janitor in an Alabama trailer park are covered in fairy dust and - abracadabra! - they rank alongside BP bonds.

Think about it for two seconds and you know this is nonsense. The only way dog food can be disguised as fillet steak is with a lot of sauce. So the Clever Ones poured it on, thick and spicy, until in the end nobody knew whether they were buying Aberdeen Angus or diced donkey.

 

[wayneL]

In a true market recession, crash, "the party is over", whatever, one would also expect to see the supply side actively seeking demand at lower prices. Token examples notwithstanding, I don't get the impression we're seeing that yet in most capital cities.

Yep, The Mexican Standoff on Price.

Was happening here for several months. Only when selling becomes urgent to enough people because of redundancy, reducing profits, cost of living/wage pressure etc, will the market see significant falls.

That horseman has yet to ride in Oz, but here in the UK, he is saddled up and mounted, and he's just about to spur his horse into motion. There is open talk of a financial Apocalypse.

 

[numbercruncher]

I wouldnt think many here had lived through a Realestate crash ? I havnt that I can remeber , I did see them stagnate for a decade in the 90's though.

I would assume prices dont Crash over night and Its pretty much a drawn out affair, 3pc this month, 1pc next , 5pc next etc .....

Its early days the listings are just beginning to surge massively and bubblevision is starting to run the stories such as the "House Market Hits the Wall " feature this week.

Once sentiment builds and momentum sets in who knows ?

Even saw an article on ninemsn today, some experts predicting rents and prices too increase 50, yes 50pc this year, delusional isnt it ?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Yep, The Mexican Standoff on Price.

Was happening here for several months. Only when selling becomes urgent to enough people because of redundancy, reducing profits, cost of living/wage pressure etc, will the market see significant falls.

It happened back in 2003/04 in some parts of Melbourne. Vendors had their high-water-mark set by the eurphoria of 2002. After enough bad news had been splattered around about what was happening in some sh1ttier parts of Melbourne and to greater effect in Sydney, many decided that they'd had a good run and they better takes profits, and get out before it really does crash. Many couldn't sell, and many decided that it was better to keep the property, continue to rent it and take the negative gearing and depreciation kickbacks because that was a better financial outcome than discounting their property some tens of thousands of dollars and to just ride it.

Guess what happened? Wages kept rising so the impact of making up the shortfall between rent and outgoings hurt less and less, and eventually 06/07 arrived and these people were able to sell into a new frenzy for prices that were invariably tens of thousands of dollars higher than 2002 peak prices.

Smiles all round.

 

[CAFA1234]

hello,

thats great news number, plenty of choice (ie. suburb, architectural style, near a train station or tram line etc)for the homeless if they decide to get with society

thankyou

robots

Robots, mate, what the hell are you on? Must be good stuff

 

[wayneL]

Holy snapping cadoodalies,

Even the VIs have turned bearish over here... stunning!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t.../construction_and_property/article3859936.ece

Halifax signals start of two-year house price fall

James Rossiter, Property Correspondent

Home-owners were dealt a fresh blow today as Halifax, Britain's largest mortgage provider, said today its measure of house prices had suffered its first annual fall in 12 years.

Halifax's parent bank HBOS, warned homeowners earlier this week to expect two years of falling house prices as it unveiled a £4bn rights issue to strengthen its capital position in the "deteriorating credit environment''.

The latest Halifax monthly house price figures echo findings published earlier this week by Nationwide, the country's largest building society lender, and the latest in a string of gloomy house price surveys which all indicate the market could be heading for a repeat of the early 1990s house price crash .

Halifax says house prices fell in April by 1.3 per cent, the fourth monthly decline Halifax has recorded. In March Halifax figures showed a 2.5 per cent monthly decline, the biggest monthly drop since 1992. etc etc

 

[CAFA1234]

I wouldnt think many here had lived through a Realestate crash ? I havnt that I can remeber , I did see them stagnate for a decade in the 90's though.

I would assume prices dont Crash over night and Its pretty much a drawn out affair, 3pc this month, 1pc next , 5pc next etc .....

I suspect your assertion is correct - you are not going to wake up next week and see that property is down 30% from last week.

In major established areas you are likely, in my humble view, to see as you say a few % here and a few % there, and sometimes a % or two increase. It may even just stagnate for an extended period.

However with inflation at over 4% prices should double every 16 years, so if you have an asset that does not move for 16 years, you have lost 50% !!! Now if your money could have been earning say 8% in the stock market (don't kill me guys, just an example!) then your asset would be worth 3.4 times what you paid for it.

So, if you pay $500k for an investment property today and we get the scenario above this is how it looks in 16 years time:

A) have investment property worth $500k

or

B) have share investment worth $1,713k

The real situation is that holding the property has in effect lost over 70% of it's value compared to a 'standard' long term investment.

Now, I'm not suggestion that property will stagnate for 16 years whilst the stock market is going up for 16 years! Just trying to show that even with stagnation it is a costly exercise in investments terms.

And or course there are in fact recent examples of a bubble that have taken this sort of period to sort out - Japanese stock market at 40,000 in 1989, and what is it today. Surely there are those who can remember this?

 

[CAFA1234]

Nice little chart here for you all showing the giant leap in property listings both YOY and from Jan to Feb this year.

From Jan to Feb weve seen nationally the amount of stock for sale leap some 50pc odd for houses , 132k in Jan to 195k in Feb and all indicators showing this is escalating?

View attachment 20653

This is good stuff. Does anyone have a chart showing this data over a rolling 12 months - would be nice to see the trend line and velocity.

 

[CAFA1234]

Holy snapping cadoodalies,
Even the VIs have turned bearish over here... stunning!
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...sectors/construction_and_property/article.ece

I can't remember where I read this, but I believe that HBOS at their institutional fund raising roadshow were showing an impact analysis of a 10% reduction for each of the next two year.

Can anyone help with a reference for this?

 

[numbercruncher]

Holy snapping cadoodalies,

Even the VIs have turned bearish over here... stunning!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t.../construction_and_property/article3859936.ece

Yes amazing isnt it, I read a similar from Halifax ....

Houses are losing almost £500 of their value a week according to a leading survey which has painted the bleakest picture yet for the property market.

Halifax, the country's largest mortgage lender, said that the average home price has fallen by £8,136 since the start of the year to hit £189,027. The decline in value equates to a fall of £479 a week.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1920108/Ha...500-a-week.html

Not exactly the most cost effective way to put a roof over your head is it, 500 a week capital loss and about 300 ? a week in mortgage payments, ouchers. Vrs im not sure what rent would be ? on the average 190k house 200 to 300 I guess ?