House prices to keep rising for years

[robots]

hello,

oh yeah, hahahahahahahahahahahaha

sorry sorry sorry, i will run everything by the authorities before posting in the future

like I say, Debt Growth, Asset Growth, Inflation, Wage Growth and the figures you present are irrelevant

these are things which have been brought into the discussion by the anti-property bloggers because many have trouble understanding the situation

maybe an xpose of that scene is required to find out the vested interests

another fine day across Australia, superb

it is the spring selling period

hit the ignore button

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[drsmith]

Gravity too is irrelevant while you have the nice sensation of falling through the air.

 

[drsmith]

This is extremely true, the economy may be considered robust but it will not take to much to get it out of kilter.

A sustained downturn in commodity prices is another potential breaking point. That punchbowl will have to remain in place at the very least to keep the party going.

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsA...ilityReview/Mar2009/Html/Graphs/graph_78.html

 

[satanoperca]

hello,

oh yeah, hahahahahahahahahahahaha

sorry sorry sorry, i will run everything by the authorities before posting in the future

like I say, Debt Growth, Asset Growth, Inflation, Wage Growth and the figures you present are irrelevant

these are things which have been brought into the discussion by the anti-property bloggers because many have trouble understanding the situation

maybe an xpose of that scene is required to find out the vested interests

another fine day across Australia, superb

it is the spring selling period

hit the ignore button

thankyou
Doctor Robots

Did I say intelligent, sorry!!!

 

[satanoperca]

hello,

oh yeah, hahahahahahahahahahahaha

sorry sorry sorry, i will run everything by the authorities before posting in the future

like I say, Debt Growth, Asset Growth, Inflation, Wage Growth and the figures you present are irrelevant

these are things which have been brought into the discussion by the anti-property bloggers because many have trouble understanding the situation

maybe an xpose of that scene is required to find out the vested interests

another fine day across Australia, superb

it is the spring selling period

hit the ignore button

thankyou
Doctor Robots

Did I say an intelligent response, sorry!!! Just another response of hehehehe or hahahaha.

We are truly the lucky country.

Yes, it was a beautiful day in Melbourne.

 

[explod]

Doc Robots
these are things which have been brought into the discussion by the anti-property bloggers because many have trouble understanding the situation

I hope you are not including me there ole pal, as you know have done well on property in the past, my first home gave me the start in life.

Figures in the Age today gave most suburbs a thumbs down, Dromana down 20%, mornington held even, Mt Martha down 3%, this in the bullet proof country.

A beautiful day yes but I wonder what those (many) who are paying mortgages at the edge of ability, think of the day as our ole pal Glen contemplates the next rise.

Salute you Dr thingo you care zilch for the family battler as long as your pockets are being lined

explosion but not anti property just anti insanity

 

[GumbyLearner]

I hope you are not including me there ole pal, as you know have done well on property in the past, my first home gave me the start in life.

Figures in the Age today gave most suburbs a thumbs down, Dromana down 20%, mornington held even, Mt Martha down 3%, this in the bullet proof country.

A beautiful day yes but I wonder what those (many) who are paying mortgages at the edge of ability, think of the day as our ole pal Glen contemplates the next rise.

Salute you Dr thingo you care zilch for the family battler as long as your pockets are being lined

explosion but not anti property just anti insanity

Michael Jackson had a monkey called Bubbles explod.

Last weekend, I had the privilege of going to a wedding dinner of one of my Mrs relos. One of the grooms parents is a current working academic at UWS. After I was informed of this I said, "Oh do you know Prof Steve Keen?" To sum up the response was that "Oh he's a wowser", even though their partner was a property speculator. All I heard for 5 minutes was supply/demand arguments. Nothing about loans, borrowing, mortgages etc..

But don't listen to me I drive TAXI'S FULL-TIME! NOT!!!!

 

[robots]

hello,

good evening friends, more great news:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162

thats right Explod because have the same opportunities as everyone else in life and the performance from most is pathetic

all continue to live in denial, MASSIVE 82% brothers

well done, hahahahahaha, xpose the frauds in your street or workplace

oh yeah big test this weekend

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[GumbyLearner]

hello,

good evening friends, more great news:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162

thats right Explod because have the same opportunities as everyone else in life and the performance from most is pathetic

all continue to live in denial, MASSIVE 82% brothers

well done, hahahahahaha, xpose the frauds in your street or workplace

oh yeah big test this weekend

thankyou
Doctor Robots

Just keep ramping bro!

I heard bricks and mortar are tastier than gold!

cheers
Uneducated Moron GumbyLearner

 

[robots]

Just keep ramping bro!

I heard bricks and mortar are tastier than gold!

cheers
Uneducated Moron GumbyLearner

hello,

better store of wealth alright

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[GumbyLearner]

hello,

better store of wealth alright

thankyou
Doctor Robots

In whose universe? Your leveraged one!

 

[robots]

hello,

kills it even more with the leverage, yeah leverage only started 5yrs ago when all the anti-property bloggers started carrying on

big congratulations to the agents and auctioneers working today, putting in for the economy

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$, thats okay isnt it? or only allowed to make money from shares?

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[GumbyLearner]

hello,

kills it even more with the leverage, yeah leverage only started 5yrs ago when all the anti-property bloggers started carrying on

big congratulations to the agents and auctioneers working today, putting in for the economy

thankyou
Doctor Robots

That's cool Robo-dogmatist!

As long as you can pay for the double-digit interest rates in the future you'll be king!

After all in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is King! Here's one eye for ya three times!

Cheers
GumbyLearner
Uneducated Moron

 

[robots]

hello,

kills it even more with the leverage, yeah leverage only started 5yrs ago when all the anti-property bloggers started carrying on

big congratulations to the agents and auctioneers working today, putting in for the economy

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$, thats okay isnt it? or only allowed to make money from shares?

thankyou
Doctor Robots

hello,

inserted, got them covered

is that like last year when they got to a HUGE 9%, HUGE 9%

sorry sorry sorry, its different this time

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[Beej]

Few things you're forgetting

- interest rates rising
- government grant being eliminated
- It's not a collapse of available credit, it a collapse of available savings through banks raising their lending standards (although increasing the max borrowing limit from 95% of the value of the house to 90% is still pretty poor standards)
- petrol prices and everyday food cost rising putting stress of mortgage repayments
- people don't know how to save
- people want too much for their FIRST home

Only the grant boost is being eliminated - that likely result in a reduction in FHB numbers, and perhaps some softening of price growth in the FHB area's/price segments, but the flow through effects from the increased sales of the past 12 months will take another 12-18 months to flow through the rest of the market. So don't expect the grant boost removal to have any dramatic effect on median prices IMO.

Interest rates - been there done that from 2004-2008. Won't have a big impact until we approach 9%+ mortgage rates. For that to happen we will either have roaring economic growth and wage driven inflation, in which case there is no crash trigger there. Or it will happen due to a US/UK driven shift to a high inflation/high interest rate economy (think 70s), in which case you have my scenario 2) from my previous post.

Banks LVRs - minimal impact on market IMO. Evidence is that credit/LVRs have been tightened in the past 12 months when the FHB prices have been rising. Unless something fundamental changes due to some systemic crisis, there won't be any great credit rationing going on there.

Cost of living rising - that's inflation, if it continues in a big way you have my scenario 2), otherwise it's business as usual scenario 1).

The last 2 points are generalisations that might apply to some but not to those who will continue to be successful in acquiring there first and subsequent properties.

Here's a classic example...
I have this friend at work who borrowed 95% to buy her FIRST home and her land release has been delayed for about 1 year so she might not get the full first home grant either. She's angry because she thinks she deserves it (the same type of attitude i guess you get from people who receive the dole and any centrelink money and think they deserve it)
She doesn't know how to save either - she want to buy a brand new holden cruze and recently went on a holiday to Thailand.

Guess she'll learn the hard way, as will alot of people

She might, or she might get by just fine. Re the entitlement attitude, I'm sure some people feel that way but they will get over it. For every story like that I could trot out all the people I know with 6 figure deposits and very sensible borrowing intentions. But individual examples do not tell you what is going on in the average, that's where the stats come in. Fact: average first time mortgage is currently $290k, = about 4.5x a single average full time wage. The average mortgage over-all is about $260k. This doesn't paint a picture to me where the person from your work is typical? Unless maybe they are not actually borrowing very much, in which case if reasonable the discipline of paying a mortgage might be good for them? Especially in the long run?

Cheers,

Beej

 

[GumbyLearner]

hello,

inserted, got them covered

is that like last year when they got to a HUGE 9%, HUGE 9%

sorry sorry sorry, its different this time

thankyou
Doctor Robots

Awesome! Replying to your own ramp.

Thanks Dr. Robots Ph.D

 

[MACCA350]

all continue to live in denial, MASSIVE 82% brothers

I'm certain I recall REIV mentioned in last weeks results that this week will see over 1000 auctions............yet only 818 were reported

Auctions don't just happen, they are the culmination of 4+ week advertising campaigns...........theoretically they should have accurate numbers for at least the next 3 weeks, you can't tell me that 200 odd people just pulled out(even though REIV report only 2 were postponed) of auction in the last week after spending thousands on advertising and open houses

I smell a rat

cheers

 

[Dowdy]

Interest rates - been there done that from 2004-2008. Won't have a big impact until we approach 9%+ mortgage rates. For that to happen we will either have roaring economic growth and wage driven inflation, in which case there is no crash trigger there. Or it will happen due to a US/UK driven shift to a high inflation/high interest rate economy (think 70s), in which case you have my scenario 2) from my previous post.

But you're forgetting the 50 year record low interest rates in 08. People bought with low interest rate and usually only take in a 2% increase buffer and think they're fine

Banks LVRs - minimal impact on market IMO. Evidence is that credit/LVRs have been tightened in the past 12 months when the FHB prices have been rising. Unless something fundamental changes due to some systemic crisis, there won't be any great credit rationing going on there.

Well i actually think the banks raising their standards is a good thing but from 95% to 90% is still pretty poor. You should have at least a 20% deposit and if you don't, you shouldn't be buying a house. Also raising their standards is actually a good thing in the long run as there will be less foreclosures and people actually buying within their means

Cost of living rising - that's inflation, if it continues in a big way you have my scenario 2), otherwise it's business as usual scenario 1).

Remember the pain when petrol prices rose to record prices last year. The cost of living increases but their wages don't. All the little thing hurt

For every story like that I could trot out all the people I know with 6 figure deposits and very sensible borrowing intentions.

Bet they're not first home buyers, are they?

But individual examples do not tell you what is going on in the average, that's where the stats come in. Fact: average first time mortgage is currently $290k, = about 4.5x a single average full time wage. The average mortgage over-all is about $260k.

What also the facts say is that 5 years ago the average home loan was $154k. So you're saying the average person is now earning $100k more a year then 5 years ago. Looks like a case of over borrowing/ too much debt to me

This doesn't paint a picture to me where the person from your work is typical? Unless maybe they are not actually borrowing very much, in which case if reasonable the discipline of paying a mortgage might be good for them? Especially in the long run?

I did tell you that they borrowed 95% of the value of the house, but like you said, it's only one case. How about another case were another person from my previous work wanted to buy a house but couldn't afford it so they used their mum as a guarantor. So it won't be a case of one person going under, it'll be 2. You may hang around different generation/age group, so your experiences will be different. Most of the people in my work industry are first home buyers/ y-generation and i used to work as a temp working from centre to centre in different suburbs and the stories were all the same.

 

[robots]

hello,

i have a work friend who is a fhb, bought at 4x average income to price, nice 3-bed in Frankston

seems to be the case with others on sites buying around that price as well, melton, caroline springs

things all going as normal, they have all buffered in 20% interest rates because they read it on a forum

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[Dowdy]

hello,

i have a work friend who is a fhb, bought at 4x average income to price, nice 3-bed in Frankston

seems to be the case with others on sites buying around that price as well, melton, caroline springs

things all going as normal, they have all buffered in 20% interest rates because they read it on a forum

thankyou
Doctor Robots

I'm not a bullsh!t artist so you can stop with the sarcasm