House prices to keep rising for years

[Rogue Trading]

Is PMI listed on the ASX?
What is there ASX code?
Thanks.
Rogue Trading

 

[YChromozome]

Is PMI listed on the ASX?
What is there ASX code?
Thanks.
Rogue Trading

My Understanding the Australian Operations are a subsidiary of The PMI Group, inc.

NYSEMI

52 Wk High : 50.50
52 Wk Low : 5.43
Last : 5.69

 

[Mofra]

XYZ (or is it still ABC? ) , CeNtRo"

Which has nothing to do at all with residential property credit

any muppet with an abn and small deposit can stack up on debt

No Doc (1 day ABN product) requires a 30% deposit. Small deposit? No, wrong.
For a 20% deposit, a full A&L, ABN with GST reg for 2 years, again very different to the US.

banks jumping over each other to lend to people their maximum capactity when rates were 6pc with NO allowance for rising rates etc etc etc and so forth.

Wrong again NC - assessment rates are taken as 2% above the highest rate with every lender I've worked for (securitised & non-securitised).

Now back at yah - Where is your evidence that " our credit standards are infinately higher than the US "

No NINJA loans, subprime % is tiny compared to the US, no defaults acceptable on non-gen savings loans above 85% LVR, etc etc.

If you really believe that Australian & US lenders have similar credit standards, you really need to do a little more homework

 

[numbercruncher]

Just look at the Banks share price, I need say no more.

If you believe our banks lending practices are so superior, stack up at bargain prices

Cheers.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Despite your grin NC, that is a massive result for Melbourne on the biggest auction day on record. 60-70% is the clearance rate during a stable, normal market and to reach that given the current circumstances is quite extraordinary.

Isn't it. Robots has been right all along. Melb is an extremely robust market Sorry, NC, keep up the bad news...stopped clock is right twice a day, as you know.

 

[numbercruncher]

Heres one Just for you then ASG ..... RE doesnt plummet over night, its a gradual affair, I believe unfolding right now before our very eyes

Property auction clearance rates plummet

AUSTRALIA'S property market has taken a nosedive, with falling auction clearance rates in most capital cities at the weekend.

Brisbane performed worst, with a clearance rate of 24 per cent, less than half the rate at the same time last year.

In Sydney, the clearance rate dropped below the psychologically important 50 per cent mark, with only 48.3 per cent selling, a drop of 11 per cent on the same time last year.

Volumes were markedly higher than last year in all states, partly because of the coming Easter weekend but also because mortgage stress is forcing a large number of people to put their homes up for sale.

Australian Property Monitors general manager Michael McNamara said present circumstances made it "hard not to be pessimistic about the property market".

He said Melbourne's clearance rates, which had gone up to 90 per cent last year, were now hovering in the 60s. In Adelaide, clearance rates were at 50 per cent, a drop from 62 per cent only last week. Brisbane's abysmal clearance rate of 23.7 per cent was less than half the same time last year.

"I think the auction clearance rates will get worse than this by the end of the year," he said. "The party is over."

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23387623-2,00.html


Its all no problem if you didnt buy at the peak, but if you bought last year I bet your losing $$ already, especially if your a money renter

 

[Mofra]

Just look at the Banks share price, I need say no more.

If you believe our banks lending practices are so superior, stack up at bargain prices

Cheers.

We are talking domestic residential lending practices, not the entire activities of global banks.

C'mon, is that all you've got? You have raised some good points in the past however this line of reasoning isn't one of your finer moments.

 

[stock_man]

Latest Residex update out. Houses prices fell in Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart, Darwin in February.

http://www.residex.com.au/newsletter/source2008_03aMC.html

Unit prices up in most areas..

Rent up 4% across the board in Feburary... sustainable?

Worth noting "% of suburbs declining in Feb 2008" figures.

Bottom has some valuable advice for buyers.

Saw this article and thought that name sounds familiar. Digging through my email archives found this email dated 25/10/2004. These guys are obviously creditable, so its all ok people. I have the proof.

Extract from email on the 25/10/2004

Like to know our predictions for this state?

Lists postcodes we predict to show the best capital growth over the next 5 years. Choose from:

Metro - Sydney, Brisbane or Melbourne metropolitan areas
Country - NSW, QLD or VIC country areas
Budget Metro - Postcodes with median values below $400,000 in Sydney, Brisbane or Melbourne metropolitan areas.

Address: Bow Avenue, Parklea NSW 2768
Property Type: houses
Your Estimated Value: $430,000
Estimated Value in 5 years' time: $770,000

Residex Pty Ltd produces a number of reports to help you buy and sell property at the right price.

www.residex.com.au - your property experts.

DISCLAIMER:
The basis for our statistical analysis is historical data, as we believe the past is the best guide to the future, but our predictions can only ever be a best guess as the future is uncertain. This predicted value assumes that the price of $430,000 entered is representative of the property's true current day value and that the property will grow in line with the Residex projected growth rate for the area. These assumptions could be incorrect if, for example, the property has some unique characteristics, or future housing market behaviour differs significantly from the past.

Under no circumstances will Residex Pty Ltd or any of its employees accept any liability for any losses incurred through investment or non-investment decisions that are made based on the information contained in this email.

5 years on from this email would be 25/10/2009.
Silly me sold this property in 2007 for $465,000. Its going to climb 165% in 19 months!!!!!

 

[numbercruncher]

5 years on from this email would be 25/10/2009.
Silly me sold this property in 2007 for $465,000. Its going to climb 165% in 19 months!!!!!

LOL

Thats like the myth about house prices going up 10pc p/a. Would mean Sydney house prices need to be something like 190mil. now! (compared to 100ish years ago)

 

[numbercruncher]

Well the price falls are officially showing in the numbers, defeat for this thread now? Let it die?

Thousands of Perth families face owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, with fresh figures revealing prices in more than half of Perth’s suburbs have fallen this year.

As the double whammy of multiple interest rate rises and falling house prices hits hard, property analysts have warned that the number of borrowers with negative equity will increase, raising the prospect of forced sales and bankruptcies.

A market analysis by national property monitor Residex found all major cities except Adelaide recorded a fall in median house values in February from January, with values in Perth retreating 0.9 per cent. While the falls were relatively small, the data showed interest rate uncertainty was spooking the market.

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=63124

 

[robots]

hello,

any chance of getting a trumpet lesson NC?

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

I can do the ....

 

[explod]

I can do the ....

View attachment 19086

Maybe we could create our own song and the words could start "House Prices to Keep Falling for Years" and we could then start a thread on it.

Putapump putapump puta da DA.

 

[numbercruncher]

Oh My Golly Gosh ! Even the REIQ is saying that people are asking too much for their houses ! what is the world coming too ? Guess they get that 2.5pc either way realestate punters

Brisbane house prices too high: REIQ

The Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) says Brisbane has recorded one of the worst weekends for house sales because owners are asking too much.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/17/2191489.htm?section=justin


I cant help but notice alot of the RE permabulls have vanished ! Robi is the only one at the helm now ! Where is TysonBoss, he has all his cash in Brissy RE, wonder what he makes of the REIQs call ?

 

[robots]

hello,

love the picture NC,

thats right, only the hardcore left (me, ASX and technotronic)

its an interesting procedure the asking price and what you ultimatley get, thats why I like auction

my brother trying to sell on mornington peninsula, whacked a heap on, and it has rightfully dropped down

no harm in trying though

thankyou

robots

 

[ROE]

I'm not sure if an average person who leverage 90% of their property understand the simple economic... I keep thing very simple and as long as simple economic doesnt compute I'm staying out.

I take this assumption ..price always go up then I question it and if it doesn't come out with a sensible answer I stay out let everyone make the money
with the risk, and good luck to them to take on the risk...it is not for me..

1. so for that assumption to be true....say I start to pay for a property 300K
because the assumption is always true the property will be 330K next year
and the year after that more than 360K etc.

2. For this to happen someone always going to be borrowing a lot more than me to get the same property, that is their capacity to borrow increase 10% a year....

so 7 years down the track this person has to borrow double what I borrow to get the same place... and 14 years down the track 4 times more to buy the same place.

but hang on a second, salary doesn't grown 10% a year so how can anyone capacity to borrow grow, unless you go into the doggy lending practice which end up in sub prime mess, then everyone pays and pay hard are the leverage up person.

even in extreme boom you don't get that salary growth that fast and even if they do it, very rare few occupation that can only command that sort of increase.

and negative gear is even more scary you basically fore go your lost in hope of capital gain which may and may not deliver in the future...in small doze it's worth the risk like 1%-2% but larger doze you start to get into gambling mode or speculation mode.

so for you to lose 5% this year and 5% the next, you got to make up 10% in the future to break even.

does my simple economic model make sense or I am just rambling and to keep thing simple I take out all the stamp duties and other tax associated with the property and even then it doesn't seem to compute too well

 

[pepperoni]

Another intersting article here:

RE price falls closing in: Robots' brother to lose a bundle

 

[Tysonboss1]

Just look at the Banks share price, I need say no more.

If you believe our banks lending practices are so superior, stack up at bargain prices

Cheers.

The current situation is hitting just about every sector,..

the ASX has beening bleeding to death for weeks now, It's not just the banks,

 

[Tysonboss1]

I cant help but notice alot of the RE permabulls have vanished ! Robi is the only one at the helm now ! Where is TysonBoss, he has all his cash in Brissy RE, wonder what he makes of the REIQs call ?

I have been to busy to chat here latly cause it's the busiest time of year in my business and I am under staffed,.... I still have faith in my sectors of the brisbane market, as I have said I invest for the longterm and have built a portfoilio with really good and growing cashflow so the short term ups and downs don't bother me.

I don't have all my money in brisbane real estate,... I hold alot of equity in shares and my businesses in sydney, And I can tell you that my property portfolio is holding up better than my share portfolio at the moment,...lol but again even the current stock crash isn't really bothering me I am increasing some holdings in some of my favourite companies at a discount.

 

[irondragon]

Oh My Golly Gosh ! Even the REIQ is saying that people are asking too much for their houses ! what is the world coming too ? Guess they get that 2.5pc either way realestate punters




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/17/2191489.htm?section=justin


I cant help but notice alot of the RE permabulls have vanished ! Robi is the only one at the helm now ! Where is TysonBoss, he has all his cash in Brissy RE, wonder what he makes of the REIQs call ?

One must factor in that Brisbane did have a city council election on the weekend. Did the REIQ conveniently omit that fact ?