House prices to keep rising for years

[dodgers]

I heard from Rod Cornish (head of real estate resarch at macquarie bank) the other day at a presentation, his view is flat to moderate growth this year on the back of high interest rates but then another bull run commencing 2009/10 which could last for 5 yrs.

He said that it was typical following any house price correction for prices to increase strongly for a year (which is what we saw last year) but for them then to pull-back or consolidate for a period before advancing on a more sustained trend.

 

[theasxgorilla]

I heard from Rod Cornish (head of real estate resarch at macquarie bank) the other day at a presentation, his view is flat to moderate growth this year on the back of high interest rates but then another bull run commencing 2009/10 which could last for 5 yrs.

He said that it was typical following any house price correction for prices to increase strongly for a year (which is what we saw last year) but for them then to pull-back or consolidate for a period before advancing on a more sustained trend.

One of the more sensible things I've heard on the topic.

By 'bull run commencing 2009/10', did he/you mean in shares?

ASX.G

 

[chops_a_must]

I'd like to know what will happen to Australian house prices if the PMI group goes broke, like its on the verge of doing.

All of a sudden the majority of home buyers will need to pony up 20% straight up. About 80k or something? Can't see that happening...

And then of course banks will get nervous as home "owners" with less than 20% equity can't be insured against default. What then, if say CBA or some others need to take that risk back on their books? Or even if they have to call in loans early?

Yep, great time to buy to prepare for that impending bull run.

 

[theasxgorilla]

You know what I mean, he was comparing the two. :

P.S. - Swedish property would do very well if/ when energy becomes a real crisis. Lucky buggers with your mass transit systems...

Yes, it would seem that this country has thoughtfully planned away from over-dependence on oil and gas.
If the rest of the world catches on and Sweden exports this know-how then I expect it will have GDP positive effects and hence, r/e will rise. I look forward to being the new Robo-Paddy of Europe Only we'll be Robo-Sven & Ingas.

ASX.G

 

[xoa]

The American bulls were also calling it a "consolidation" when their bubble started to burst 18 months ago. It's been "consolidating" ever since.

 

[theasxgorilla]

The American bulls were also calling it a "consolidation" when their bubble started to burst 18 months ago. It's been "consolidating" ever since.

You/they can call it what you like. When prices in my area go up and I sell my house for more and I put that money in the bank, I call it equity.

 

[numbercruncher]

Clearance rates for 15th March.


Brisbane - 23.7 p/c

Adelaide - 50 p/c

Sydney - 48.3 p/c

Melb - 67 p/c


Massive spike in listings ....... early days

 

[xoa]

23.7% clearance? Is that a typo? If not, then last month's 2% price decline is just the beginning.

Brisvegas may become the next Las Vegas as far as negative equity is concerned.

 

[dodgers]

One of the more sensible things I've heard on the topic.

By 'bull run commencing 2009/10', did he/you mean in shares?

ASX.G

No he was only referring to houseprices.

 

[numbercruncher]

Looks like more rate rises independant of the RBA ....

AUSTRALIAN homeowners and investors are facing more interest rate misery after the near collapse of American banking giant Bear Stearns yesterday.

The US investment bank had to be given an emergency loan by rival JP Morgan, backed by the Federal Reserve, after it effectively ran out of cash because of a massive fall in the value of its investments.

It had invested heavily in instruments linked to poor-quality mortgages in America, where defaults are soaring and house prices have fallen 12 per cent from their peak.

As a result, the value of its investments plummeted.

The news is likely to mean more rate hikes by Australian banks - independently to any RBA announcements - as they try to preserve their profits in the face of spiralling funding costs.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23380935-462,00.html

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Can Anyone help with a question on Buying property in N.Z?

I am just wondering if you can negative gear property in N.Z. I.E. Can I off set that against my Australian income?

Thanks
GG

 

[Mofra]

Clearance rates for 15th March.

Melb - 67 p/c

Despite your grin NC, that is a massive result for Melbourne on the biggest auction day on record. 60-70% is the clearance rate during a stable, normal market and to reach that given the current circumstances is quite extraordinary.

 

[Mofra]

I'd like to know what will happen to Australian house prices if the PMI group goes broke, like its on the verge of doing.

All of a sudden the majority of home buyers will need to pony up 20% straight up. About 80k or something? Can't see that happening...

PMI could sell the Australian policies fairly easily, as our credit standards are infinately higher than in the US. Some lenders self-insure & GE could take quite a number of PMI policies as many areas of policy overlap.

They would be better off selling some arms of the business anyway, given they are basically at junk bond status in the US so capital is a problem, and their share price is 80%+ off their highs.

 

[numbercruncher]

our credit standards are infinately higher than in the US.

LOL

 

[chops_a_must]

PMI could sell the Australian policies fairly easily, as our credit standards are infinately higher than in the US. Some lenders self-insure & GE could take quite a number of PMI policies as many areas of policy overlap.

They would be better off selling some arms of the business anyway, given they are basically at junk bond status in the US so capital is a problem, and their share price is 80%+ off their highs.

I doubt they could if the person buying has absolutely zero trust in who is the other party. Especially if they have been bundled... right?

And that's the real problem, if counter party risk is a real problem like it is, you wont touch anything of theirs with a barge pole. So what do the other parties do?

 

[Mofra]

I doubt they could if the person buying has absolutely zero trust in who is the other party. Especially if they have been bundled... right?

And that's the real problem, if counter party risk is a real problem like it is, you wont touch anything of theirs with a barge pole. So what do the other parties do?

PMI are getting slaughtered in the US however their default rates within Aust. are well within even normal guidelines, over their entire range of normal products (Adv, LD & Gold).

I'm sure any prospecive buyer will have enough sense to ignore rhetoric & conduct sufficent DD to determine a fair price and enough nous to cancel the clawback on premiums for refinances to save themselve back-end dollars.

 

[Mofra]

LOL

You obviously disagree - care to provide any factual information or will we just have selectively edited bearish quotes to avoid any sence of balance in your position?

 

[numbercruncher]

You obviously disagree - care to provide any factual information or will we just have selectively edited bearish quotes to avoid any sence of balance in your position?

XYZ (or is it still ABC? ) , CeNtRo , any muppet with an abn and small deposit can stack up on debt, banks jumping over each other to lend to people their maximum capactity when rates were 6pc with NO allowance for rising rates etc etc etc and so forth.

Now back at yah - Where is your evidence that " our credit standards are infinately higher than the US "

 

[robots]

hello,

good typo NC, can you give every post like that please

thankyou

robots

 

[robots]

hello,

huge result for melb yesterday, superb

location, location, location is what it is all about, fantastic weekend

a couple of auctions just had no bids, quite amazing not one and bang passed in

would like to take time to thank all those involved, and good luck in the future

thankyou

rObOts