House prices to keep rising for years

[wayneL]

well maybe some should consider we are heading towards a European style of living....??? larger % of renters than owner occupiers.....and Switzerland had only 37% owners......due to constraints in available land etc.....the high cost of avaliable housing.....higher % would like to own a home...but could not afford it.....
and today more modest rises in house prices.....
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=869574

Having lived in germany. It is better to rent in Europe, as you have a much more secure tenancy. You can paint, put in new kitchen, etc in Germany. And the leases are essentially perpetual.

Unlike a lot of RE Agents in Brisbane who won't give you more than a 6 month lease, so you have no certainty over how long before you might have to look for a new place.

Much better to own in Australia, however in Europe there is little reason to own, as renters have most of the benefits that owners have here.

Exactly mythos.

kincella has no idea about the reasons Europeans like to rent. Mainland Europe is cheaper than Oz (wages to price), apart from a few premium areas. It is nothing to do with cost.

 

[MrBurns]

hello,

Sunshine & Lollipops

going to be a blast tonite, flick the 30yr old TV onto Ch9, Hey Hey

thankyou
Professor Robots

At least I agree with you on that.
Knew Daryl in the old days, always very talented, a smart guy.

 

[kincella]

aaargh...Satan....the Japanese exercise into the Australian market back in the 90's, or whenever it was..... was into commercial property...not residential...
from memory, after doing a bit of research last year......I recall the following snippets...........
Japanes investment was predominately in QLD if I recall correctly, although they did buy offices etc in other capital cities ....(Qld had its own unique reputation regarding property.....well property scams actually) however, the Japanese bought up the Islands and resorts and accommodation....then directed the Japanese tourists to take holidays in Australia.....but their own tourists were not allowed to venture away from any Japanese owned business...so the money was not flowing into QLD for tourism......
then the Japanese panicked and sold out of the commerecial property, suffering huge losses....and of course the subsequent buyers gained huge bargains...
bit similar to a couple of years ago....Japanese housewifes spent 2 Trillion buying foreign currency.....
they were desperate and looking for a better return than the zero rates on offer from Japanese banks....
just because some have a load of money at their disposal....does not mean they are smart or intelligent in financial matters....

now if we are talking about housing (not commercial property) Japan has been unique, virtually doing the opposite to other growing countries.....it has almost zero population growth, zero immigration....and a huge ageing population, low birth rates, and a large burden on the young to support the current population...and it seems they have no idea about how they will support the ageing population into the future....
no wonder the housing has been stagnant for so long...there is almost no competition or demand for housing.....and the bankers have some unique practises,,,so too the companies.....its an interesting read....

I wonder if the new PM will be able to enforce a change in attitude or direction in the future....
there is an enormous amount of information on the web regarding Japan and some of their unique policies

 

[Beej]

Well, house prices still rising strongly across the board in August according to RP-Data: (http://www.businessspectator.com.au...n-August-pd20090930-WCVGX?OpenDocument&src=is)

House prices strong in August

Home values have risen by 1.9 per cent in the month of August. Using the rpdata.com (ASX: RPX) property database, which is Australia’s largest and includes over 170,000 sales during the first eight months of 2009 (and over 129 million data records in total), Australia’s housing recovery solidified during the month of August with robust capital gains registered across the country despite evidence of fading first home buyers.

According to RP Data-Rismark National Capital City Hedonic Index – which is the only monthly index published by the RBA in the Statement on Monetary Policy – Australian home values rose by a surprisingly firm +1.9 per cent in the month of August. This brings cumulative capital growth in the first eight months of 2009 to a better than expected 7.9 per cent. This is also the single highest monthly index result since the national RP Data-Rismark National Hedonic Index began in January 2005.

Underpinned by the strongest population growth since 1971, record housing shortages (acknowledged by the RBA yesterday), historically low mortgage rates, favourable employment outcomes, and one of the world’s most profitable banking systems, Australian home values have now extended 3.8 per cent past their last February 2008 peak (see chart). This rebound followed peak-to-trough falls in national home values of just 3.8 per cent in 2008, which compares exceptionally well with the circa 16 per cent and 32 per cent house price declines registered in the UK and US, respectively.*

.... [rest of article snipped - quite a good read actually with a lot of commentary from Chris Joye on recent RBA bank comments]....

Charts attached. The big question now is how long can this run continue? I reckon that it will peter out a bit by the end of the year, with the bottom end in particular flattening and maybe falling a little through next year as interest rates start to bump up a bit. The only thing that could push the bottom end further would be a big surge in IP activity, which although it is ticking up slightly, this does not seem enough to make up for the expected drop off in FHB demand. The mid range and top end will I think continue to grow moderately as all the upgraders who sold to FHBs and 3rd time upgraders etc continue to work through the market over the next 12 months. My opinion on this is based on the continued strong auction clearance rates, prices and volume numbers for Sydney and Melbourne in recent weeks as the spring sales have kicked in.

Also a specific example, a house near mine sold in Feb 08 for $1.425M (co-incidentally it was actually the house owned prior to that sale by the people who bought my previous PPOR last year, which is why I have taken an interest in it!). That same house just sold again 2 weeks ago for $1.66M. No renovations were done as far as I can tell - they may have painted, spruced up the bathrooms/kitchens a bit, but no major work undertaken.....

FYI Kincella, re Japan, they don't just have zero population growth, they have NEGATIVE population growth. The weird thing also is despite a decade of economic stagnation and all the talk of their housing market issues, property is still really expensive in Japan (especially in big cities) by any measure, as is just about everything else....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[stocksontheblock]

well maybe some should consider we are heading towards a European style of living....??? larger % of renters than owner occupiers.....and Switzerland had only 37% owners......due to constraints in available land etc.....the high cost of avaliable housing.....higher % would like to own a home...but could not afford it.....
and today more modest rises in house prices.....
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=869574

I think somehow you don’t understand the dynamic of why people rent in Europe – this is a whole discussion in its own right, as it is not for the same reasons as they do here - not being able to afford to buy.

I would also have to disagree with your example. Switzerland is a bad example. Land releases, prices etc have very little to do with the rental market in this country, the figures demonstrate that the country, compared to others such as the US, UK etc has not suffered from significant and outside norm trends in house increases and house prices are achievable considering the broad high level of Swiss incomes.

Switzerland has an incredibly high % of international workers - I understand some 20%+ are foreign workers, as does places like Belgium. If you are not a Swiss national then you cannot own property and so those nationals who do own property have taken - IMO a wise decision - to rent to those who need to live there. It should also be noted that the Swiss also have a very high rate of 2nd property ownership - dwarfing countries like Oz, US, UK etc.

And, as pointed out by mythos - Switzerland is like Germany, tenants have some pretty amazing rights, which further adds to the lack, or no desire to own a home.

 

[kincella]

regardless..I came across some articles yesterday that discussed...home pride...which enforced a community pride and attitude....and higher values for living standards.....which might go some way to explaining why Australians have this attitude towards home ownership....ie its a home pride thingy

it also might explain the culture that has developed from building public housing estates to house the poor as renters only, as they did in the 60's and 70's, which creates its own problems....hence the increased crime rates, lack of education, and increased unemployment in those suburbs.....Meadow Heights ?? in nsw with gang wars and problems springs to mind.....

at the same time....a recent article on some of Sydney's western suburbs, that are emerging out from a former rut and past problems, noted above...to emerge as a desirable place to live now...being closer to the city and commuting distance....the theme again was the pride of the mainly immigrants who populated those suburbs....who bought the houses and made it their community..........
its all just food for thought

 

[wayneL]

kincella,

Here is an important link for you. Please read this.

 

[MrBurns]

kincella,

Here is an important link for you. Please read this.

ROFL - if this web site ever gets near capacity of it's hard disc space delete kincellas posts for immediate relief, whoops just realised my post count is double his, must be that all kincellas posts are novels so it just seems like they go on forever.

NOW - watch what happens this weekend, and the next , then the rates go up are you still watching ?, just wait for it.

 

[nunthewiser]

i have removed my last post as waynes link said it all

 

[stocksontheblock]

kincella,

Here is an important link for you. Please read this.

LMFAO ... ohhh, well done!

 

[trainspotter]

My sides are splitting from laughing too much. I especially liked the part about the use of punctuation.

Anyhooooooooooooooooo .... House prices will continue to rise. Inflationary pressure will soon kick in, unions will be wanting more money for the "workers", interest rates will rise to curb the inflatioary effects, banks will start to lend more money as people drop their cash into interest bearing accounts, Rudd will claim all the credit for the perfect harmony created by his fiscal responsibilites, taxes will go up to cover the huge debt he has run up .... blah yadda blah. Seen it all before.

 

[MrBurns]

Reminds me of the story about the bloke who was in bed with his girlfriend and his wife walked in.

She looked aghast and he just calmly got up got dressed and escorted his wife from the room while the girlfriend escaped.
Every time the wife started on him he just says "what" "what girl" sorry darling what are you talking about , this went on till she actually believed she'd imagined it.

Same theory if you continue with the BS over and over sooner or later some will actually think it's true.

 

[kincella]

hahahaha.....so I am the really stupid blogger....hahahaha ...just an ignorant property investor.....hahahaha and I am laughing all the way to the bank.....

 

[MrBurns]

hahahaha.....so I am the really stupid blogger....hahahaha ...just an ignorant property investor.....hahahaha and I am laughing all the way to the bank.....

Now you sound like robots

 

[Taltan]

They're both from Melbourne too. Kincella are you and Robots one and the same? If not maybe the two of you could meet weekly along with Enzo & Co

 

[kincella]

4 million people reside in Melbourne....there might be 6 people I am aware of who follow this thread who live in Melbourne....big deal.....its actually a pretty lousy number considering the large population....

 

[kincella]

just did a Financial IQ test...with Coredata
the results.......shows how really very stupid and ignorant I am........

Your Assessment

Well done!! Your Financial IQ is between 125 and 135. This places you close to two standard deviations above the national average. In basic terms it means your Financial IQ is in the top 7% of the population with regard to understanding financial terms and concepts. Placing you well above the average level of national understanding. You are clearly smarter than most bankers and should possibly consider a new career working for the RBA. However as with all major financial decisions you should still carefully consider all your options before making major financial purchases.

 

[satanoperca]

Kincella, what are trying to say

 

[nunthewiser]

ROFLMAO!

i love this thread!

 

[stocksontheblock]

I think its time I had my little rant. So here goes:

regardless..I came across some articles yesterday that discussed...home pride...which enforced a community pride and attitude....and higher values for living standards.....which might go some way to explaining why Australians have this attitude towards home ownership....ie its a home pride thingy

it also might explain the culture that has developed from building public housing estates to house the poor as renters only, as they did in the 60's and 70's, which creates its own problems....hence the increased crime rates, lack of education, and increased unemployment in those suburbs.....Meadow Heights ?? in nsw with gang wars and problems springs to mind.....

at the same time....a recent article on some of Sydney's western suburbs, that are emerging out from a former rut and past problems, noted above...to emerge as a desirable place to live now...being closer to the city and commuting distance....the theme again was the pride of the mainly immigrants who populated those suburbs....who bought the houses and made it their community..........
its all just food for thought

I haven’t read all there is in this thread as I came to it late and I’m just not going to read it all. However, with some of the posts you made I though, maybe this guy might know what he is talking about. Please don’t accept that as me agreeing with you, just that you might know what you are talking about.

However, with responses like: "regardless ...". Regardless of what? What you said was just wrong, and irrelevant and had no basis in fact, or even myth. I think this demonstrates that the poking and prodding by the others appears to be fair and justified.

hahahaha.....so I am the really stupid blogger....hahahaha ...just an ignorant property investor.....hahahaha and I am laughing all the way to the bank.....

Based on the very funny link from wayneL you are guilty of the following:

1. Don't capitalize.
2. Don't punctuate.
3. Apostrophes are fairly easy to deal with.
4. Mispunctuate.
5. Write Like You're on IRC.
6. Don't forget the cute misspellings.
7. Make Personal Attacks.
8. Claim False Credentials - I guess this is a hard one, as I/we truly don’t know if you own any property.
9. Make **** Up - sorry to apply no.6
10. Cite Urban Legends.
11. Ramble - Mr Burns has been on this one for a long time.
12. Post Non Sequiturs
13. Ignore Proper Spelling and Usage.

In identifying this, I do have to seriously question whether you have the ability to be running all the way to the bank - I assume with money, and not pleading for them not to turn the credit tap off.

In presenting a position it helps to be able to back it, or at least explain your view, no matter how right or wrong or silly it may seem. However, to dismiss something simply by saying 'regardless' does nothing for any credibility you may have had.

I know you say you own property, you may, you may not (see no.8), and I know you try to ramp the market more and more yet treating us, as I do take exception whether no one else does or not, at being spoken to like a fool.

Based on the amount of posts you make, and the urgency you respond to anything; particularly in this thread you obviously have a lot of time on your hands, so not being able to at least put together a basic sentence is not a sign of an "ignorant property investor", its the sign of an arrogant ...

You may see this as some sort of personal attack? Not in the least. I actually don’t mind ASF and many of the threads; in fact I find many of them useful. Yet, when a certain thread is treated as one’s own personal thiefdom then it loses any impact it may have once had.

It’s clear you understand very little about property in other countries and the dynamic of those markets, and make references to (see no.8) again: “a recent article on some of Sydney's western suburbs…” and “I came across some articles yesterday that…”

We all know your position, your thoughts and your views. How about handing this thread back to those of us who actually want to ask and give real questions & answers, and not just hijack the thread for their own sense of self gratification.