House prices to keep rising for years

[tech/a]

67% clearance for yesterday, no problem

Well 67% properties at auction had punters agree with prices asked.

All clearance rates prove is just that.

When we see auctions being handed with a rejection of prices below say a 50% clearance I think we can safely say prices will continue to correct to a parity.
With high clearance rates its not telling me on a whole property is out of favour.
Infact 67% high.

Still you guys will beat your brains out trying to win a pointless arguement.
There is great value,avaerage value and terrible value out there.

 

[krisbarry]

Bad weekend in Adelaide for Auction clearance rates (about 55%), way down from the 77% a few months back. Any property bulls still left?

 

[numbercruncher]

When we see auctions being handed with a rejection of prices below say a 50% clearance I think we can safely say prices will continue to correct to a parity.
.

Clearance rates 08 Mar.

Sydney 49.9%

Adelaide 55.6%

Brisbane 43.7%

Might be time to find a new favored Indicator ?

 

[explod]

Well 67% properties at auction had punters agree with prices asked.

All clearance rates prove is just that.

When we see auctions being handed with a rejection of prices below say a 50% clearance I think we can safely say prices will continue to correct to a parity.
With high clearance rates its not telling me on a whole property is out of favour.
Infact 67% high.

Still you guys will beat your brains out trying to win a pointless arguement.
There is great value,avaerage value and terrible value out there.

A good way of putting it. The clearance rates down a bit in Melbourne but some commentators now pointing out that there is increased stock and vendors are lowering prices, both of which increase the clearance rates.

So yes the old clearance rate, which you keep quoting Robot, is a meaningless figure.

The other factor that is not being accounted for on this thread is the value of money. Price rises across the board mean that money is losing value. The inflation rate is a bodgey figure also because some important items are not included for its calculation. So $500,000 put up 12 months ago would probably require 50,000 more today. If the mean average of houses have increased that much, as some say, then they have not gone up at all.

 

[robots]

hello,

never have been any property bulls here STC, just realists

oh yeah everything collapsed,

thankyou

robots

 

[pepperoni]

Denial ... comes right after the new paradigm.

Happy to say I havent seen an auction for over a year. Havent got the foggiest idea what clearance rates are either but I know they are meaningless.

I also know prices are falling pretty hard in the most valuable parts of australias most valuable market and plummeting in other parts of the same market.

Word is the "margin loan" belt is looking like it will do far worse than the mortgage belt very soon.

Nero fiddled while rome burnt ... robots arent nearly so educated ... but they still have their bacon lol.

 

[krisbarry]

hello,

never have been any property bulls here STC, just realists

oh yeah everything collapsed,

thankyou

robots

A realist, how can a real estate agent be a realist? get real!

No offence to real estate agents it is a profession, but lacks credibility!

Gee even a signpost or a traffic light can place a bid on a house.

My sister got the secret envelope trick, she was screwed out of an extra
$25,ooo, silly girl, but filthy dirty trick by the real estate agent.

So Again being real is one thing but being realistic about a market is better.

A real estate agent is a step up from a car person

 

[krisbarry]

By the way, a close mate of mine is a real estate agent, and his gums flap non stop, he can sell the leg off a chair, but of late his gums stopped flapping and he has become a property bear too.

Says a lot about the profession and the current market climate, its bleak in anyones language.

Keep it real-estate agents!

 

[tech/a]

Pepperoni,Numbers,Kris.

I'll call you the cynics.

Did you ever stop to think that those like Bots,Myself and a few others here,bought fully geared back when prices were $90k for a 4 bedder
They are now $350K.Rents were $150/ week then and now $330/week.

Passive income--cant beat it.

Do you really think we give a rats if prices fall 50%?

 

[numbercruncher]

Tech and others,


Our argument/debate here isnt about your guys personal circumstances.

We are probably all indifferent to the fact of you guys being Millionaires, Billionaires or debtors or whatever. Its nice to hear youve done so well, but dont make out that your all some kind of genius RE moguls for buying property at the bottom of the cycle !

We are presenting the facts that support that House prices certainly arnt going to keep rising for years. There is very little evidence to the contrary since the beginning of this thread.

Cheers


Oh and I do think you would give a rats if prices fell 50pc, actually I think you and others would be devastated.

 

[tech/a]

We are presenting the facts that support that House prices certainly arnt going to keep rising for years. There is very little evidence to the contrary since the beginning of this thread.

Yes only History I guess.
But hey this time IS different isnt it.

In 1977 I heard exactly the same thing.

Houses were a REDICULOUS $32,000 on average in Adelaide.
To think that in 30 yrs time the exact same house would be $350,000 was fancifull.
As was the idea that the wages would go from an average of $6k a year to now around $60k
As was the thought of a New car going from $2500 to $35000
As was the thought of Petrol at 14c going to $1.50 a litre.

$350,000 to 3.5 million
$60,000 to $600,000 wages

Totally rediculous!!

 

[wayneL]

Holy Dooley!

We're arguing a 5 year time horizon with a 30 year time horizon?

Futile.

Let's at least agree on the time frame we're talking about.

 

[xoa]

The typical house in 1977 was twice as affordable.

I read a few days ago that the typical mortgage owner is putting 49.8% of his disposable income into repayments. For recent entrants, it's even worse. Before long, those at the top of the pyramid scheme will be trying to get blood from a stone.

"Investors" are temporarily distorting prices because they've suddenly become 45% of the market. At most auctions, the end-users of real estate are outnumbered by "investors". It's never been like this before. Take out the speculative element of demand, and prices will become a falling knife.

 

[numbercruncher]

A graph says it all, In my humble opinion the correction is beginning just like every other Western country.

View attachment 18873

NEIGHBOURS, spectators and onlookers gather for a Saturday auction in St Kilda West. Valued at more than $1 million by its owners, the house is in a trendy part of town that is typically keenly sought. But while well served by the sunshine, the assembled crowd in Park Street is missing one key ingredient: a buyer.

Not a single bid is made and the property passes in with a vendor's bid.

Vendors bids add to the so called " clearance rate " dont they ?

More than ever, real estate agents are telling their clients to lower their price expectations and that with the heat coming out of the property market the massive profits reaped last year are unattainable today.

Wow, realistic RE salespeople, bearish even, but oh well they slice off 2.5pc no matter the price

http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/going-going-gone/2008/03/09/1204998282272.html

 

[explod]

A graph says it all, In my humble opinion the correction is beginning just like every other Western country.

View attachment 18873




Vendors bids add to the so called " clearance rate " dont they ?




Wow, realistic RE salespeople, bearish even, but oh well they slice off 2.5pc no matter the price

http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/going-going-gone/2008/03/09/1204998282272.html

The latter a very important point, time and again I have had family and friends who signed up at a price over the last few years when things were good. Prices suggested by the RE Guru's to get the business over competing ageants and within weeks were suggesting that a price drop was needed to move the property. Get you then screw you.

As you say 2.5%, which varies little from $500,000 to $450,000

In fact with the internet now figuring in more than 50% of properties being spotted I suggest it is time to sell property on ebay without agents. Conveyancing DYO with the backing of your solicitor is ABC.

And car salesmen, angels compared to Real Estate Agents because thier evolutionary brain period/size is more exposed in the car yard. And as a matter of fact they are more regulated because of past vehicle theft problems.

 

[Kimosabi]

Pepperoni,Numbers,Kris.

I'll call you the cynics.

Did you ever stop to think that those like Bots,Myself and a few others here,bought fully geared back when prices were $90k for a 4 bedder
They are now $350K.Rents were $150/ week then and now $330/week.

Passive income--cant beat it.

Do you really think we give a rats if prices fall 50%?

The real question, was this luck or did you do your research and analysis before jumping in?

Did you understand credit and money creation cycles before jumping in?

All of us RE Bears have done the analysis and research and have concluded that the real value of your $350K 4 Bedder is probably about $150K - $200K adjusted for insanity and Real Estate/Credit Bubbles.

Needless to say, when Real Estate becomes a dirty word for the General Public, those of us that are currently Real Estate Bears will soon become Real Estate Bulls.

Research and Analysis = Smart Money

I bide my time for my entry into Real Estate and observe the dynamics of the Booms and Busts with great interest.

 

[tech/a]

Holy Dooley!

We're arguing a 5 year time horizon with a 30 year time horizon?

Futile.

Let's at least agree on the time frame we're talking about.

Who nominated 5 Yrs?

Vendors bids add to the so called " clearance rate " dont they ?

No only a sale.If its not sold its still inventory.

Wow, realistic RE salespeople, bearish even, but oh well they slice off 2.5pc no matter the price

They have to get sales----price is one of the best draw cards.

In fact with the internet now figuring in more than 50% of properties being spotted I suggest it is time to sell property on ebay without agents. Conveyancing DYO with the backing of your solicitor is ABC.

There are many creative ways to sell your property.And you can sell it yourself.Its very simple with a conveyancer.
There was that story of the guy in Surfers I think it was that reverse Auctioned his house and got Double the price!
Agents have an agenda for both buyers and sellers.
Read Jenmans"Dont Sign Anything".

The real question, was this luck or did you do your research and analysis before jumping in?

My story is somewhere on this thread.

Did you understand credit and money creation cycles before jumping in?

Did you before missing the biggest property boom in decades?

All of us RE Bears have done the analysis and research and have concluded that the real value of your $350K 4 Bedder is probably about $150K - $200K adjusted for insanity and Real Estate/Credit Bubbles.

Well the real value on the last one I sold turned out similar to $350 from initial $120K in my case.

Needless to say, when Real Estate becomes a dirty word for the General Public, those of us that are currently Real Estate Bears will soon become Real Estate Bulls.

Really?
Where were you in 1997,98,99,2000,01.02,03,last year?

Research and Analysis = Smart Money

Can be as smart a money as you wish but unless its invested in something its pretty DUMB.

I bide my time for my entry into Real Estate and observe the dynamics of the Booms and Busts with great interest.

I'm sure you will.You'll OBSERVE them possibly all your life.Paralysed by fear of failure.

 

[wayneL]

Who nominated 5 Yrs?

(exasperated sigh)

Nobody. But I suggest that the participants of this thread do so.

Of ####ing course property will rise in nominal terms over a 30 year time frame.

The next 5 years may see something different. I also may not, but seeing as folks are arguing across time frames I suggest we all nominate what time horizon our view extends to. It would also be a good idea to state whether the view is in real or nominal terms.

Otherwise it is another one of those stupid futile point scoring fiascoes that don't achieve anything but acrimony. A silly byatch fight. (Both sides guilty here)

FWIW It's how investors survive the next 5 years that will matter. No point having a 30 year view if you go down in flames before then.

Now is definitely a time for caution. You can play baby games and call it fear, but was Buffet a scaredy cat for not buying equities when he perceived them too expensive?

Utterly ridiculous.

 

[tech/a]

Now is definitely a time for caution.

Who mentioned that its not?
In my case of postings I have suggested and STILL suggest that there are opportunities still out there which Joe Average can take advantage of.

New Homes by Pioneer for $260 a week.
Elizabeth and surrounding areas here in Adelaide for Continued growth for a number of reasons including the new Northern Expressway.

"Investors" will survive well as they will be geared to weather whatever is thrown at them.
Its speculators who will have to show caution.

No one said its easy and no one said people wont get burnt.

There will be some cases where R/E will rise over the next 5 yrs and as Ive stated at 20% down and as close as positively geared as you can get---and its STILL possible---a 3% a year rise is 15% return on your money---now compound that 5 yrs.Let alone add increased rentals over that time at say Inflation and you'll have capital appreciation and passive income.

Ill bet 95% of those in the Stock market wont come close.

 

[explod]

Who mentioned that its not?
In my case of postings I have suggested and STILL suggest that there are opportunities still out there which Joe Average can take advantage of.

New Homes by Pioneer for $260 a week.
Elizabeth and surrounding areas here in Adelaide for Continued growth for a number of reasons including the new Northern Expressway.

"Investors" will survive well as they will be geared to weather whatever is thrown at them.
Its speculators who will have to show caution.

To suggest that ANY realestate transaction is stupidity at its heighest---in todays market IS Utterly rediculous.
No one said its easy and no one said people wont get burnt.


There will be some cases where R/E will rise over the next 5 yrs and as Ive stated at 20% down and as close as positively geared as you can get---and its STILL possible---a 3% a year rise is 15% return on your money---now compound that 5 yrs.Let alone add increased rentals over that time at say Inflation and you'll have capital appreciation and passive income.

Ill bet 95% of those in the Stock market wont come close.

Time for a valium Wayne---relax.

To suggest that ANY realestate transaction is stupidity at its heighest---in todays market IS Utterly rediculous.
No one said its easy and no one said people wont get burnt.

You do not know much about the stock market. Just the dividends alone from BHP (20% down and the rest borrowed) would do better than you outline here by 300%. And that is not counting the equity growth.

Head your horses into another direction, both of you of you are talking nonsense just to score. Pity we cant turn this into a physical **** fight, would be sold out in an instant.