House prices to keep rising for years

[numbercruncher]

Precisely and as money gets dearer and harder to borrow house prices can surely only keep rising for years as the OP demands ?

 

[robots]

Anyways .... so besides property skyrocketing like Bank shares for the next few years, how do people feel about the new Gov incentive of getting 6k p/a plus 2k I understand from state govs to rent out new builds 20pc below market ? Surely will reduce the demand for established Investment props yes/no ?


So you new build and intend to rent for 300p/w but let it for 240p/w and get all this Gov juice, thatll help push up established places prices just like rising interest rates do yes ?

hello,

I dont think it will get off the ground, its Ruddie just trying to be everybody's friend,

will this information be in the Section 32 (sale document) for purchaser's, what happens with new owners when the property is sold or do they have to hold for a period of time,

it will push up cost of new home just like FHOG,

we dont have enough workers as is,

things are rolling along fine, the affordability crisis is a myth,

hey explod, why dont you send an email to the RBA why they like to look at clearance rates?

30-40% on most inner melb prop's last year on a massive capital base, have some of that

thankyou

robots

 

[robots]

hello,

just a note on auctions this week,

i think the weekend will be pretty ordinary, probably around mid 60's

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

I dont understand I thought that when Interest rates are rising and stock portfolios where getting annhialated that Aussies poured their cash into Realestate ?

Is that another one of those Urban Legends they speak about ?

 

[robots]

hello,

is it all that easy nc?

thankyou

robots

 

[Kimosabi]

Real Estate in New Zealand is getting slaughtered, found this on the Global House Price Crash Forum.

1) Sales volume showed NO increase from Jan to Feb (in almost all previous years there has been a jump in sales between those months).
2) Average house price of those sold has now declined from $559K in December to $495K in February.
3)A decline of $64K in just 2 months.
4) That is a staggering 11% decline in just 2 months!

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=28660

 

[ROE]

I dont understand I thought that when Interest rates are rising and stock portfolios where getting annhialated that Aussies poured their cash into Realestate ?

Is that another one of those Urban Legends they speak about ?

Let it go the fatter it goes the heavier the fall...you just save your cash in the bank at 8% compounding each year till that day. Here is what the richest man (Warren Buffett) on earth have to say about compounding 10% a year which is the story real estate agent put out

" I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century –

envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly

forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about double-digit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him. Many helpers are apparently

direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees."

 

[tech/a]

Real Estate in New Zealand is getting slaughtered, found this on the Global House Price Crash Forum.



http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=28660

Do you ever think past the face value of everything you read?
Robotic posting of someone elses thinking.

(1) You cant tell me the "Average price for a home in Auckland is $500,000?????
So the top end is (On face value) returning to parity.

OR

(2) What if last month those listed and sold were more expensive purely because they were better houses than those listed this month.What if last month 10 multi million dollar waterfront homes changed hands and none did this month?

People talk about balance in a thread---its black and white here.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

sure interest rates by the reserve bank and by the banks themselves are hurting people and decreasing house prices in some areas but do you really think interest rates will stay this high forever ?

At most there may be one or two more RBA rises and prob the same bank rises but I would bet my @ss that interest rates will start coming down by end of 2008 - midway through 2009.

So lets say that there is a good chance of house prices remaining stagnant in some areas and decreases in others for maybe 12 months or so (hence the 8 year economic cycle). But the Sydney housing market experienced its peak well before the US and we're still doing ok. They went from peak to downhill very rapidly.

Also we are in debt but its personal debt not government debt there is a massive difference. There is a whole economic theory based on the fact that Goverment debt related current account deficiets are completely different to government debt related current account deficiets.

We have budget surpluses people and a future fund that will most likely meet and go beyond our future requirements. The US goverments medicare program is sinking the whole country they estimate by i think it was 2050 or so the ENTIRE US BUDGET would be neccessary to meet the medicare requirements alone. Our banks may be cutting back on dodgy lending, so what we go back to responcible lending pratice Sure i doubt we will see another housing boom in the next 10-20 years like the one we just had but there is no reason for house prices to decrease.

We also have to remember that its not that house prices in the US are just diving their whole economy is sinking and they now have an across the board asset depreciation. Auction bonds are r00ted, people loosing jobs, banks loosing billions. The negative feedbacks are pushing down prices faster and faster. Their country is sinking, the dollar is gone. The only reason it aint a paso is because you can only buy oil in US peso's now.

The only negative we have is interest rates via inflation and the cost of debt. Our economy is going gangbusters and will do so for at least 10-20 years IMO we aren't running out of coal, iron, uranium, geothermal energy any time soon and China and India have decades of growth left in them. Not to mention the other next potential big industrialisations how about south america and africa ?

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Does any one actualy beieve median house price reflects anything in the hosuing market ? medians only work effectively with bell curves the opposite it true with property most of the cases are suburbs that are well well above the median or well well below the median. You can still buy a house for $250 at Blacktown and a unit in parramatta for 200-250K. So what if everyone can't afford a quarter acre block.

 

[tech/a]

forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about double-digit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him. Many helpers are apparently

direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees."

Linier thinking.



Help yourself I say!

 

[xoa]

Hypothetical future interest rate cuts won't save us. They're not saving the USA either. Australian house prices fell in real terms in the decade to 1998, even though interest rates almost halved.

Once you remove the speculative element of demand, prices will plummet. Once people come to the realisation that prices can fall, they won't speculate, regardless of how cheap credit becomes. Statistics tell us that "investors" are a bigger share of our market (45% of new home loans last year) than they ever were in the USA. With the average house valued at an insane $497k, there's a long way to fall.

 

[tech/a]

With the average house valued at an insane $497k, there's a long way to fall.

Where do you get this rubbish.
Ive just sold one 50% under market value then----- and made 250% on my initial investment.
Actually it was $zero down so work out my return on my money invested.
Bloody hell get educated!

 

[wayneL]

Observation:

It's futile arguing macro against micro. In other words, when someone has a macroeconomic argument, it's kinda dumb using specific examples to counter; and visa versa.

Unverifiable chest thumping doesn't add much either.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

AUSTRALIA'S financial institutions have lent billions of dollars to home buyers who were not subject to basic credit checks and had a history of defaults, putting them in the "sub-prime" category that continues to terrorise world financial markets.
The revelation, contained in research conducted by Dun & Bradstreet exclusively for The Weekend Australian, will add to investor fears about Australian banks' exposure to the global turmoil caused by the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in the US.
Shares in the Big Four banks, which have already lost $100billion in value since their highs last year, yesterday led the stock market sharply lower. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index slumped 3 per cent after concerns about the international credit crisis again stalked Wall Street.
The value of the Australian stock market has now shrunk $400 billion - or 25 per cent - since the sub-prime problems were first revealed in mid-last year.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23338906-601,00.html

And these are the companies home buyers will be going to to get a loan. Do you think they will be scrutinising things a bit more these days, ie it will be harder to get finance. And increasing rates above the RBA benchmark sort of tells us the real story that's unfolding here. The credit givers don't trust anyone any more.

Something about the wealth effect used to support the house bulls in the past, but it is now coming back to haunt them - negative wealth effect - up by the stairs, down by the bat pole.

Cycle end! Wait for the carnage, then buy! Mind you, the bottom could be several years away yet.

 

[xoa]

Where do you get this rubbish.
Ive just sold one 50% under market value then----- and made 250% on my initial investment.
Actually it was $zero down so work out my return on my money invested.
Bloody hell get educated!

You don't understand the concept of market value. Half of properties sell for more than $497k, half for less. Those that sell for less, aren't necessarily "under market value". You can be sure there is a reason for their lower valuation.

Obviously the past 5 years have been very kind to property investors of subprime IQ. Any ape could make an unrealised profit, by just buying random houses. Let's see what the next 5 years has in store for you.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Observation:

It's futile arguing macro against micro. In other words, when someone has a macroeconomic argument, it's kinda dumb using specific examples to counter; and visa versa.

Unverifiable chest thumping doesn't add much either.

Totally agree and thats why i believe we are seeing the price decreases we are in the US because their economy as a whole is screwed and the governments only solution is to dig itself in deeper to try prolong the pain.

Sure house prices may decrease in real terms over years due to inflation and stagnant prices but that is far more preferable to asset deflation. Remember as your houses real value decreases with inflation so does the % of your wage that it takes to service the loan. So bank and owner loose equally but if your house decreases 10-20% its only you loosing out the bank is still owed the full amount.

Massive difference in oz to is that you can't just walk away from your house if you have negative equity you just have to suck it up and either deal with it and stay put for years or sell at personal loss. In the US these people with negative equity give the keys to the bank and say to bad so sad see ya later suckers with no personal responcibility for any amount the may still owe. So instead of them taking the hit the bank does.

 

[chops_a_must]

hello,

the US is being exposed for the place it is, ordinary, while aus keeps showing the world its style

thankyou

robots

Ah yeah, so why have Adelaide and Tasmanian house prices gone nuts in recent years as well?

Most would rather drink battery acid than live in these places.

Report out last night saying 25% of all kids in WA are going hungry each night. No affordability/ cost of living problem at all... clearly.

Thankyou.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Ah yeah, so why have Adelaide and Tasmanian house prices gone nuts in recent years as well?

Most would rather drink battery acid than live in these places.

Report out last night saying 25% of all kids in WA are going hungry each night. No affordability/ cost of living problem at all... clearly.

Thankyou.

a quarter of children going hungry thats a big claim by the "report" doesthis mean 25% of kids there are starving or simply not getting dessert

Sounds to far out to be true where bouts did this report come from, got a link ?

 

[tech/a]

Observation:

It's futile arguing macro against micro. In other words, when someone has a macroeconomic argument, it's kinda dumb using specific examples to counter; and visa versa.

Unverifiable chest thumping doesn't add much either.

Wayne.
I think its kinda dumb using macro economic arguement as a complete blanket.
I put up specific examples to "balance" the discussion.Just as a profitable trader would use specific examples of profit in this Doom and Gloom market.

The point Ive been making all along and will continue to make is.
Forget about masses of armaggedon news. If you wish to survive and prosper look at those things that 95% of the population DOSENT. 95% read agree with and act relative to "News".Their results are congruent with that which they BELIEVE.

What you see as chest thumping are simply real life examples of what others (myself in this case) are achieving,would it be less offensive if I said "A guy I know well"?

Obviously the past 5 years have been very kind to property investors of subprime IQ. Any ape could make an unrealised profit, by just buying random houses. Let's see what the next 5 years has in store for you.

This attitude that people who invest in property have to be mindless morons is seen in all bull markets of anything.
The last 7 yrs of trading has seen the often touted "Any Idiot can turn a profit in a bull market"
Strange seems only 5% of the idiots can actually achieve that---a consistent profit.

Those that tout these chants are by and large those who look back with dispair at what THEY missed out on.
I keep using THIS APE as an example as I know what he's doing intimately.
While at the height of his lunacy he was 85% geared he is now 32% geared,still with 70% of his bannana's.

There are few monkeys here speaking from experience and that is as clears as day in their musings.

Wayne any verification you need happy to have my legal people forward to you in form of affidavit---any time you think I'm full of bannana crape you just let me know,Private mail me with postal details.(Yeh I'm sick of your snipping).
And everytime I satisfy your scepticism I expect an apologie publicly--here.