House prices to keep rising for years
- Thread starter moses
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One of the governments housing industry subsidies, the home sellers bonus, is to be scaled back this qtr.
China has just stopped stockpiling our resources. Chinas' gov subsidies amount to 6% of their 7% GDP. If KRudd is relying on the China myth to help pay for the property subsidies/stimulis by getting GDP back to 4% in 2 years time and aussie companies starting to fill the coffers with tax revenue then China better start buying again pretty soon.
Either that or KRudd & Swanny have to keep the junket going indefinatly?
Give it the Dec qtr to settle in to show up about Jan qtr, & the property permabulls will be scratching their collecting heads at what went wrong, and maybe trying to work out the difference between genuine supply & demand and artificially derived price distortion due to government meddling?
Here's the logic for anyone living in the real world -
http://www.aussiestockforums.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=456385&postcount=193
snip...
Is all a bit crazy right now.. went to 2 OFI's on the weekend south of Brisbus for places under $500k.. each had multiple contracts on the table that day, first week listed. Both low $400's and most seemed to be under 35 y/o. Either somehow cashed up, or willing to take on a ****load of debt. This is going to keep running until the end of the year. 12-18 months many of them might be up for sale again...
Latest ABS population figures were out the other day.. Out of interest I extended these rates 20 years into the future.. Doesn't seem to stack up that "Victoria has the stronger population growth in the country". It seems QLD wins in terms of percentage AND actual numbers.
Latest ABS population figures were out the other day.. Out of interest I extended these rates 20 years into the future.. Doesn't seem to stack up that "Victoria has the stronger population growth in the country". It seems QLD wins in terms of percentage AND actual numbers.
Attachments
Aussie cities more affordable: surveyJuly 7, 2009 - 1:24PM
some extracts....to drool over........
Sydney remains the most expensive Australian city for expatriates but has dropped from 15th place globally to 66th place.
The survey findings, released on Tuesday, also show Brisbane now sits in 116th place, having dropped down from 57th, and Adelaide remains the least expensive city in Australia in 130th place.
Across the Tasman, Auckland has moved down the ranks to 138th place from 78th.
The survey covered 143 cities across six continents and measured the comparative cost of more than 200 items in each location, including housing, transport, food, clothing, household goods and entertainment.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ies-more-affordable-survey-20090707-dbe6.html
some extracts....to drool over........
Sydney remains the most expensive Australian city for expatriates but has dropped from 15th place globally to 66th place.
The survey findings, released on Tuesday, also show Brisbane now sits in 116th place, having dropped down from 57th, and Adelaide remains the least expensive city in Australia in 130th place.
Across the Tasman, Auckland has moved down the ranks to 138th place from 78th.
The survey covered 143 cities across six continents and measured the comparative cost of more than 200 items in each location, including housing, transport, food, clothing, household goods and entertainment.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ies-more-affordable-survey-20090707-dbe6.html
I finally found 2 minutes to catch up on some reading....
and now looking at putting in solar panels and solar HWS on all the houses....and 2000lt water tanks for the gardens...
I am guessing it will cost around 11,000 plus per house...
7000 for 6 solar panels, 2200 water, and 1600 for hws...less any state rebates...
Origin electricity sent me a brochure...you pay half now and the rest interest free over 2 years....sounds like a good deal and one can save 50-80% of the costs of electricity pa....
depends which area...Brissy and Qld probably 80% as more sun, Syd 65%, Melb 50%
and the govt has a 10,000 interest free Green loan...
anybody here done any of the above ???
ps Origin deal is for 100klm radious Melb metro only...but am sure competitors will match or better it.
my tenants should love the deal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.
The owner of McDonalds once asked Harvard students if anyone knew how he made his money.
They answered easy, making hamburgers.
No he replied. I own the best real estate in every capital city in the world>***
and now looking at putting in solar panels and solar HWS on all the houses....and 2000lt water tanks for the gardens...
I am guessing it will cost around 11,000 plus per house...
7000 for 6 solar panels, 2200 water, and 1600 for hws...less any state rebates...
Origin electricity sent me a brochure...you pay half now and the rest interest free over 2 years....sounds like a good deal and one can save 50-80% of the costs of electricity pa....
depends which area...Brissy and Qld probably 80% as more sun, Syd 65%, Melb 50%
and the govt has a 10,000 interest free Green loan...
anybody here done any of the above ???
ps Origin deal is for 100klm radious Melb metro only...but am sure competitors will match or better it.
my tenants should love the deal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.
The owner of McDonalds once asked Harvard students if anyone knew how he made his money.
They answered easy, making hamburgers.
No he replied. I own the best real estate in every capital city in the world>***
explod
explod
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Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Mate in Burpengary Qld has spent 8 mths trying to sell his house for 420K and now has an offer for 360K the purchaser had his house valued 100k less then 1 yr ago. to rent out the new purchase he needs and extra 5k to cover loans and 4K for mortgage insurance and need to spend money to get the new house safe for a tenant. So much for the Aussie dream???/
explode...so you dont get it....spending money will improve the house and the price...oh and saving 60% on the electricity bill...and the water bill...is not a good incentive .....
and what of all the people that are now renovating their existing homes...at a low interest rate....future enhancements.....future profits, or higher standard of living...
and what of all the people that are now renovating their existing homes...at a low interest rate....future enhancements.....future profits, or higher standard of living...
steve keen flogging it again.....
of the 100 or so blogs after that article probably 10% are realists and 90% who agree with him are still in fairy land.....here is one of the realists blogs............
I am a financial adviser and always bullish on property. We where told not to buy our first house in 1997 on the very same basis. Paid $220,000, borrowed $225,000 plus $35,000 for renovations then owned it outright and fully renovated 4 years later and we only had average wages at that time, now can live here forever. Others can do what they wish, I will keep buying quality median price property in good areas, paying it off and buying more. But we need people that are anti property, they make great tenants for us!!!
Posted by: Robert Gothard of Sydney 9:10am today
Comment 34 of 99
and this blog hit the nail on the head.........
Well, this is why there are no economists in the BRW Rich 200 list
hehehehehe sooo funny....excellent statement
sales rose last month to 2.4 BILLION....
Ray White says investors returning to property
AAP
July 08, 2009 10:58am
Text size
REAL Estate group Ray White says investors are returning to the property market after its sales for June rose by 33 per cent from the same month last year.
Australasia's largest real estate company also forecast continue sales growth in the second half of calendar 2009 on the back of improved investor confidence.
Group sales for June rose to $2.411 billion, from $1.8 billion in the corresponding month in 2008.
"Despite months of negative reports on the economic downturn and the global recession, I think investors in Australia are starting to realise it's not the end of the world and they are regaining confidence,'' Ray White Deputy Chairman Sam White said.
"They're also starting to see that property investment has a lower level of risk when you compare it with the volatile sharemarket.
"Despite a small decline in the real estate market since early 2008, it is still actually performing quite well nationwide.''
Ray White's figures show property sales in all states grew in the double digits from a year ago, with New South Wales a stand out with sales growth of more than 40 per cent following a lift in high-end property sales.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25750669-31037,00.html
of the 100 or so blogs after that article probably 10% are realists and 90% who agree with him are still in fairy land.....here is one of the realists blogs............
I am a financial adviser and always bullish on property. We where told not to buy our first house in 1997 on the very same basis. Paid $220,000, borrowed $225,000 plus $35,000 for renovations then owned it outright and fully renovated 4 years later and we only had average wages at that time, now can live here forever. Others can do what they wish, I will keep buying quality median price property in good areas, paying it off and buying more. But we need people that are anti property, they make great tenants for us!!!
Posted by: Robert Gothard of Sydney 9:10am today
Comment 34 of 99
and this blog hit the nail on the head.........
Well, this is why there are no economists in the BRW Rich 200 list
hehehehehe sooo funny....excellent statement
sales rose last month to 2.4 BILLION....
Ray White says investors returning to property
AAP
July 08, 2009 10:58am
Text size
REAL Estate group Ray White says investors are returning to the property market after its sales for June rose by 33 per cent from the same month last year.
Australasia's largest real estate company also forecast continue sales growth in the second half of calendar 2009 on the back of improved investor confidence.
Group sales for June rose to $2.411 billion, from $1.8 billion in the corresponding month in 2008.
"Despite months of negative reports on the economic downturn and the global recession, I think investors in Australia are starting to realise it's not the end of the world and they are regaining confidence,'' Ray White Deputy Chairman Sam White said.
"They're also starting to see that property investment has a lower level of risk when you compare it with the volatile sharemarket.
"Despite a small decline in the real estate market since early 2008, it is still actually performing quite well nationwide.''
Ray White's figures show property sales in all states grew in the double digits from a year ago, with New South Wales a stand out with sales growth of more than 40 per cent following a lift in high-end property sales.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25750669-31037,00.html
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Yeah, I suppose these house prices will just keep doubling every 7 years, what happened to that?? lol
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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The scary thing is that most people don't believe we have a debt problem down under.
The truth is, household debt is just as big in Australia as it is in America. And it's growing every day.
Thanks to credit cards, mortgages and car loans, Australians have racked up nearly $1 trillion in debt-equal to the entire GDP of the country. And the $44 billion in credit card debt alone (according to the RBA) amounts to $2,000 per Australian.
As worrying as this private debt trend is, the most alarming trend is Australia's growing public debt.
Here is a simple warning: if Australia's public debt continues to grow, the country will, like America, soon become a debtor nation-dependent on high-saving foreign creditors to fund government programs.
Am I exaggerating? Or being unnecessarily alarmist? Consider the facts:
The first wave of the Global Financial Crisis has seen a $20 billion government budget surplus transformed into $57.6 budget deficit. Whether you agree with the policies that produced this deficit is not the point. The point is, the deficit is growing.
The government deficit is already 5% of GDP. That's not bad compared to the U.S. and U.K. (12% and 13% respectively). But the Bank of International Settlements-the central bank to central banks-reckons that Australia's net public debt could grow to $203 billion by 2013-nearly 14% of GDP.
That means no matter which party controls the government in Canberra, Australia will have to sell nearly $315 billion in bonds each year to bridge the funding gap.
I'm sure I don't have to tell you that in a Credit Depression-where money is hard to borrow-finding $315 billion a year to fund Australia's growing deficit won't be easy.
It won't be cheap either. Interest rates will likely rise in order to attract investors to this debt. That means the cost of servicing Australia's debt is going up too-just as the debt itself is growing massively.
Public debt is set to skyrocket at exactly the time that governments all over the world are competing for capital.
Of course they will double every 7-10 yrs ( take your pick)???
From Money Morning
The truth is, household debt is just as big in Australia as it is in America. And it's growing every day.
Thanks to credit cards, mortgages and car loans, Australians have racked up nearly $1 trillion in debt-equal to the entire GDP of the country. And the $44 billion in credit card debt alone (according to the RBA) amounts to $2,000 per Australian.
As worrying as this private debt trend is, the most alarming trend is Australia's growing public debt.
Here is a simple warning: if Australia's public debt continues to grow, the country will, like America, soon become a debtor nation-dependent on high-saving foreign creditors to fund government programs.
Am I exaggerating? Or being unnecessarily alarmist? Consider the facts:
The first wave of the Global Financial Crisis has seen a $20 billion government budget surplus transformed into $57.6 budget deficit. Whether you agree with the policies that produced this deficit is not the point. The point is, the deficit is growing.
The government deficit is already 5% of GDP. That's not bad compared to the U.S. and U.K. (12% and 13% respectively). But the Bank of International Settlements-the central bank to central banks-reckons that Australia's net public debt could grow to $203 billion by 2013-nearly 14% of GDP.
That means no matter which party controls the government in Canberra, Australia will have to sell nearly $315 billion in bonds each year to bridge the funding gap.
I'm sure I don't have to tell you that in a Credit Depression-where money is hard to borrow-finding $315 billion a year to fund Australia's growing deficit won't be easy.
It won't be cheap either. Interest rates will likely rise in order to attract investors to this debt. That means the cost of servicing Australia's debt is going up too-just as the debt itself is growing massively.
Public debt is set to skyrocket at exactly the time that governments all over the world are competing for capital.
Of course they will double every 7-10 yrs ( take your pick)???
From Money Morning
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Flashing lights & sirens - BS alert ahead from a financial advisor. Not many of those in the BRW Rich 200 list either? Must have lent out his dartboard to an economist
Always bullish on property? As always, fails to mention the fact that pretty much anyone, including me, who bought RE in the last 10-15 years would have made money (due to excess money supply), same as all the stock market experts who rode the bull and all of a sudden want to know how to short a stock.
The money supply genie giveth & the money supply genie taketh away even faster - how do you break the bad news to the lemmings gently? That's right, they blame someone else when the time comes to pay back the debt at higher rates or when they lose their job.
It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion :burn:
just correcting that post of festivus.....
it was the blogger who was a financial advisor......not me...but you made it look like me.....
haaa...I am nothing like a silly used car salesman cum financial advisor.....
just so the few who hate the property keeps rising theme......its true....some properties rise faster than others.....some suburbs and streets slow down....but over all, over time, they all rise.....
its a ridiculously simple theme....and over 70% of our population are home owners, with another 20% property investors....so 90 % of the population succumbs to ownership at some time in their lives.....
and studies show...the younger ones can be against ownership....but eventually when ready for nesting...they too succumb.....
guess most of the against brigade are under 35 or do they still call them kids at 40....
and so far after over 2 years of GFC....we still have not seen any of the disastrous prophecies that were trolled by the non believers.....
I am not suggesting its over....but the low interest rates were the biggest factor....
the silly little bit of money for fhb grant of an extra 7000...was the be all and end all of the house prices holding up.....
ps there is some good money in other government grants out there....solar power ??? worth maybe 8000, solar hws 1600, rain water tanks 500....around 10,000....and that applies to every property I own.....x it by xx and look at the big savings for me.....plus carbon credits off the bills in the future....and the sell price for the house rises...to reflect the solar energy benefits....
and even further....one can apply for a Green Loan worth $10,000 interest free, how cool is that......
each of the tenants will save about 1500 pa on electricity bills......the water is not as good a saving....cause there is hardly any rain to begin with.....but whopping savings if you were in Cairns....
it was the blogger who was a financial advisor......not me...but you made it look like me.....
haaa...I am nothing like a silly used car salesman cum financial advisor.....
just so the few who hate the property keeps rising theme......its true....some properties rise faster than others.....some suburbs and streets slow down....but over all, over time, they all rise.....
its a ridiculously simple theme....and over 70% of our population are home owners, with another 20% property investors....so 90 % of the population succumbs to ownership at some time in their lives.....
and studies show...the younger ones can be against ownership....but eventually when ready for nesting...they too succumb.....
guess most of the against brigade are under 35 or do they still call them kids at 40....
and so far after over 2 years of GFC....we still have not seen any of the disastrous prophecies that were trolled by the non believers.....
I am not suggesting its over....but the low interest rates were the biggest factor....
the silly little bit of money for fhb grant of an extra 7000...was the be all and end all of the house prices holding up.....
ps there is some good money in other government grants out there....solar power ??? worth maybe 8000, solar hws 1600, rain water tanks 500....around 10,000....and that applies to every property I own.....x it by xx and look at the big savings for me.....plus carbon credits off the bills in the future....and the sell price for the house rises...to reflect the solar energy benefits....
and even further....one can apply for a Green Loan worth $10,000 interest free, how cool is that......
each of the tenants will save about 1500 pa on electricity bills......the water is not as good a saving....cause there is hardly any rain to begin with.....but whopping savings if you were in Cairns....
hello,
wow:
http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162
massive 84%, well done AGAIN to those in there putting in, top effort brothers
keep those dollars racking up,
cant believe it I got a letter from UWS this week to take up a position at the uni, a vacant desk in the economics department
thankyou
professor robots
wow:
http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162
massive 84%, well done AGAIN to those in there putting in, top effort brothers
keep those dollars racking up,
cant believe it I got a letter from UWS this week to take up a position at the uni, a vacant desk in the economics department
thankyou
professor robots
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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A blog is de rigueur robots.
so just getting back to the solar freebies....panels for electricity ...rebate of 8000....so I might have to pay, net cost to me after rebates $3000, guessing the solar HWS will cost about $1700..less 1600 rebate...net cost 100...
I intend to do both the rainwater tank and grey water...you only receive one rebate for one or the other....tanks about $500....guess grey water min cost of $500, but it could be more...
so spend about $13700, less rebates of 10,100 = net cost to me say $3600...thats a real good deal....tenants save about $1500 pa on electricity and hws, I save on the cost of town water...
and I am certain the increased capital costs will be reflected in the mv of the houses....
I intend to do both the rainwater tank and grey water...you only receive one rebate for one or the other....tanks about $500....guess grey water min cost of $500, but it could be more...
so spend about $13700, less rebates of 10,100 = net cost to me say $3600...thats a real good deal....tenants save about $1500 pa on electricity and hws, I save on the cost of town water...
and I am certain the increased capital costs will be reflected in the mv of the houses....
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