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House prices to keep rising for years

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trainspotter said:
This in the Australian in January - WESTERN Australia's property bubble has been pricked and prices could drop as far as 20 per cent as home buyers flee the market. Turnover in the market has dropped by 16.1 per cent since its peak in June, based on the number of new home loans being approved, with a 4.1 per cent fall in November.

This in the West Australian in July - HOUSE prices on rise again: Industry chief (front page headline) Perth's property market is on track to record its second consecutive quarter of price growth that would confirm the embattled sector has turned the corner. Median house prices to rise by2.3%

Talk about conflicting signals.
Click to expand...
So basically their crystal ball is broken, and they have no idea about the future of the Aussie housing market.........just like us:D

Up........down...........up..........down.........place your chips;)

cheers
 
TS the difference being the first article was in Jan...and predicted to drop
the 2nd article was in June 09 and records a rise.....
you should know by now all the people predicting huge losses....were just so wrong.....and they continue to predict figures on anything and everything that proves them wrong....hello...problem with their methodology
 
kincella said:
TS the difference being the first article was in Jan...and predicted to drop
the 2nd article was in June 09 and records a rise.....
you should know by now all the people predicting huge losses....were just so wrong.....and they continue to predict figures on anything and everything that proves them wrong....hello...problem with their methodology
Click to expand...
No prediction..........
Graph.aspx


I love posting that:p: ..............Yeah I know, blah blah blah:D

cheers;)
 
When the State Revenue Dept sends you a REFUND cheque for land tax on property and devalues the block by 15% (just a lazy 20k down the gurgler)you start to wonder. Like everything there is an element of risk. Property has been recognised to be the most stable and should make up part of a good portfolio. Following the SIP rule we should be in for a looong wait before property will be the shining example it used to be.
 
Macca...remember the GFC started June 07.....almost no houses were selling...then the increased FHB grant kicked in and houses started off again about Oct 08...but predominately at the bottom of the range....
so if only low priced houses are selling...and no middle or high end houses sold...the median value must come down....traps for players ,...unless you are a buyer in the bottom bracket...
the truth was the lower priced homes increased in value...if you were out there looking, like quite a few buyers are....they are not finding a bargain...and looking to pay higher prices....why is that....
they were fooled by the median price dropping...but not actual house prices falling....
 
kincella said:
Macca...remember the GFC started June 07.....almost no houses were selling...then the increased FHB grant kicked in and houses started off again about Oct 08...but predominately at the bottom of the range....
so if only low priced houses are selling...and no middle or high end houses sold...the median value must come down....traps for players ,...unless you are a buyer in the bottom bracket...
the truth was the lower priced homes increased in value...if you were out there looking, like quite a few buyers are....they are not finding a bargain...and looking to pay higher prices....why is that....
they were fooled by the median price dropping...but not actual house prices falling....
Click to expand...
"..............Yeah I know, blah blah blah:D"

cheers:p:
 
whats your location trainspotter ??? it can make a big difference....
there will be pockets of unemployment....higher than usual....so there will be some softening in some suburbs,,,,generally not the inner city areas....but in the outer suburbs....
I am expecting a very slowed economy...its not going to bounce back quicky as some think....interest rates will need to come down....when they start to hike tax rates to cover the deficit....Swan predicted a growth in our economy to offset the big handouts....that was a mistake.
oh and when I talk property as a good investment...I dont mean a 5 minute investment job....I mean 10-20 years and its a passive investment...
glued to the pc watching trades is not passive....
 
Location, Location,Location, is the key. North of Perth to give you some indication without giving my poition away. WA country on the coast.

I have been in the property industry for 21 years. Fom finance (mortgage origination) to holding a Real Estate Reps licence. I have bought and sold approx 35 blocks and houses in this time. For me, not for clients. I still own a property development company that specialises in purchasing potential blocks for unit develpment (current requirement where I am located).

Yes, there is property that you hold for a longer period of time due to rental income, capital growth etc etc. Property is a great investment, so are shares and so is a portion of money in the bank. What I am driving at is that depending on the economic times depends which way you should shift your portfolio to take advantage of the markets.

Think of it like a tree in the wind. It will bend whichever way the wind blows it. Smart tree. If it does not, then it will come down, cradle an all !
 
well the old maxim was...put a third of your money into each asset category...hold all 3 types...when one is up the other will be down, or flat...rare for all 3 to be up at the same time or down....
past 8 years showed property and shares were up, but cash was in the middle, since then stocks have lost 50%, property has grown in some areas , cash had a rise than a fall...
I have friends LT investors, they have not sold anything, but have used cash to top up on shares, and they intend to buy more property by the end of this year
I know some here think its a lazy way to invest, and that they could have made a stack more money selling near the top of the market and buying back in at the bottom....
but these friends run businesses...and they consider the investments are super or for retirement...and it can sit around cooking for a long time....no hurry
 
kincella said:
What happened to the housing slump?
Chris Vedelago
July 5, 2009

The surge in property prices has even the experts perplexed, writes Chris Vedelago.

IT WAS supposed to be the worst property slump in a generation. After a succession of interest rate rises, a sharemarket slump, corporate collapses and the psychological effects of the global financial crisis, 2008 had all the ingredients for a prolonged downturn. Some analysts warned that Australian house prices would fall by as much as half.
Property analysts RP Data-Rismark reported last week that Melbourne has posted the highest house price growth of any capital city in the five months to May, up 5.86 per cent to $469,357. It has now passed the previous peak median price of $465,216 set in February last year.

Residex reports that during the downturn, house values rose in suburbs where the median value was below $360,000, such as Laverton (18.9 per cent), Braybrook and Albion (19.6 per cent) and Broadmeadows (20.8 per cent).
note only extracts here..not the full story
http://business.theage.com.au/business/what-happened-to-the-housing-slump-20090704-d8i2.html

my thoughts on Qld and WA....they rose higher and longer than the other states...so they will see softening...while NSW and VIC are showing growth
I expect all resource dependent states to soften...unbelievable they would be higher than biggest cities of Syd and Melb...:D
Click to expand...

hello,

just in case anyone missed one of the best from Kincella,

surely there must be an empty desk at Western Uni

Beej or Kincella should be sitting a that desk

thankyou
professor robots
 
Cynical....houses are always cheaper, new ones in the outer suburbs.....looks good to me
Robots....thanks...but not interested in western uni...its Melb I like..
btw
I bank with wbc....but my property loans have been with others, the bank called me last Friday...suss me out, they want to lend me some housing money, wondered why I had not borrowed from them before...said better deals elsewhere.... they said they can match any deal and better it....I said I had just refinanced with rams....she wants me to change to wbc....joking all those new fees again...no thanks...will I be buying more property....you bet I will...
just found a house in regionals...massive upgrade...but they must have run out of money....listed at a very low price....4 beds, 2 baths....maybe the agents playing...will find out...appears to be most of the big work is done...going by the photos.....and my fav type of house....period, with beautiful japanese maple in front.....
it will make a beautiful family home for a bigger family one day....its too big for my needs..but it will be worth finding out the nitty gritty of the deal
cheers
 
kincella said:
Cynical....houses are always cheaper, new ones in the outer suburbs.....looks good to me
Click to expand...
:rolleyes:

kincella

Perth and Adelaide are a disaster, i fail to see how anyone could see it any other
way....The Melb results certainly read very well...perhaps it was the 2 decades of
low growth, and the state is now just playing catch up.
 
Macca I dont follow the other states...only know that they went higher for longer than Melb
Cynical....the above covers my thoughts on the other smaller cities
 
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