House prices to keep rising for years

[satanoperca]

Firstly I am not expert in commercial/business loans.

The RBA can drop rates as much as it wonts but that does not mean the banking sector will pass on any cuts to business loans. The last lot of rate cuts were not reflected in business loans.

Source RBA
Small Business Loans
Yr 08 Yr 09 Difference
Cash Rate 7% 3% -4%
Overdraft 11.5 9 -2
Variable Rate 10 8 -2

Residential Mortgagee - variable
9.5% 5.5% -4%
Cash Rate 7% 3% -4%

The banks seemed very reluctant to pass on the latest IR cuts, but pressure was born on them by the Government due to residential mortgage rates being such a politically sensitive issue.

Cheers

 

[kincella]

satan...forget about the cash rate...the banks charge a margin above that...and talking to brokers...some of the rates listed in the following link, no longer exist...my experience with bank west last week....and they want 3 years tax returns ..not 2 years....a lot more hoops to go thru....
this canex/canstar list looks good...but the reality is quite different...and even though a rate is posted on this list or the banks web site...
individuals ln business looking for a loan...will be offered a higher margin loan for their trouble...
bank west had infor about business loans etc...when questioned they said those loans wer no longer available from Sep 08...I said why is it shown on your web site...no answer
this list if for residential back business loans...if you do not have a resi property to secure the loan...expect to pay another 2%..if you can even get a loan...
http://www.canstar.com.au/interest-rate-comparison/compare-residential-secured-overdraft-rates.html

and this today...seems unfair...our govt tipped billions into the banks to provide liquidity....but no liquidity handed out...

A survey of Australia's top 500 businesses by turnover has found 40 per cent wanted their bankers to relax lending security requirements and debt covenants.

The findings, in a bi-annual report by East & Partners, were similar to a twin survey of Asia's top 1,000 companies by revenue across 10 countries.

That survey showed 43.8 per cent of Asia's biggest institutions want their bankers to relax lending criteria which was tightened significantly in 2008 when liquidity all but dried up.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ant-banks-to-relax-lending-20090604-bwuv.html

 

[robots]

hello,

great article for off the planners:

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Art...eadline=Slump takes shine off best-laid plans

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[satanoperca]

and this today...seems unfair...our govt tipped billions into the banks to provide liquidity....but no liquidity handed out...

This seems to be the problem, the banks. I would like to see no more handouts to these business. Let them fail if it is to be.

Cheers

 

[kincella]

and how many billions of income do they rip off us in just fees alone...not the interest each year...was it 3 billion or 8 billion mentioned last week ??
seems they take no responsibility at all....they are more in control of our economy than any govt....its just a giant cartel...

 

[ROE]

and how many billions of income do they rip off us in just fees alone...not the interest each year...was it 3 billion or 8 billion mentioned last week ??
seems they take no responsibility at all....they are more in control of our economy than any govt....its just a giant cartel...

That is right nothing works without bankers,
they are one of the most powerful organisation in the world
it's not just 21st thing, it's been like that since man invent money..the bond dealers and the bankers are the most powerful and the most richest man on the planet through the ages.

and you better off have a profitable banks than a collapse banks, a collapse banks bring the economy to its knees, you house price will crumble, your stock market free fall.

so interest rate are set by banks, nothing you can do about it, when you borrow you are at the mercy of the banks.....RBA can set at 1% banks can charge you at 10%...not a damn thing you can do about it ....so have you found cheap rate for business

You cant beat them you join them I laugh all the way to the banks when people borrow money ..keep borrow son keep making more money for banks and when **** fall over they seize your asset and kick you out of the street...

 

[Trevor_S]

seems they take no responsibility at all....they are more in control of our economy than any govt....its just a giant cartel...

If you think it's a money making bonanza for the banks, then buy shares in them, they have large payout ratios You do realise they have a duty to shareholders first ? I would suggest some due diligence first though, before buying.

If you are suggesting they become less diligent with their lending practices, I disagree, I suggest they need to tighten even further, and expect them to do so, especially with resi. mortgages. I am all for profitable banks, the alternate is worse.

As to the spread between the cash rate and the loan rate (+ margin), it's always been expensive for small to medium business compared to resi. I saw you spruiking Bank West Business Lending weeks ago, and wondered what the result would be

 

[kincella]

Hi Trevour....so this is called spruiking is it.......

decided I am pretty happy with property atm....more so with the nice low rates on offer...and BankWest offering 4.99% variable for business loans..and the resi loans at 5.2%....

it is the lowest business rate I have ever seen in over 20 years........I thought it deserved some mention.....but to call it spruiking seems rather over the top to me....just a one liner in amongst the other chatter....
**** note it is highlighted and underlined here...but not in the original post....

 

[Trevor_S]

Hi Trevour....so this is called spruiking is it........

It was more a light hearted jibe At the time I wondered if you mentioning it meant you were going to approach them about lending as it was mixed in mixed in with your normal rhetoric about how good things are... I had seen their ad prior to you mentioning it and thought "bulls_hit" at the time... why would they (owned by CBA) offer 5% when other banks where at 10% (by the time you add in the margin) ? Let us know how you go and what margin on top of the advertised rate you end up paying, if you do proceed, I am genuinely interested.

and this today...seems unfair...our govt tipped billions into the banks to provide liquidity....but no liquidity handed out...

Surly you're not that naive to think the banking industry is fair ? Perhaps your frame of reference is the last few years where they have thrown money at people with very little due diligence on their part and you expected this to continue ? rather then perhaps a revision to the status quo of decades past where you needed substantial deposits and a savings record etc...

 

[Beej]

Interesting article: http://business.smh.com.au/business/house-prices-not-tipped-to-slide-20090603-bv6p.html

House prices NOT tipped to slide
MICHAEL PASCOE (SMH)
June 3, 2009

What a dangerous thing an economist with a model can be, capable of scaring the horses, wrecking the financial system and generating internet traffic.

Yesterday's strange call by JPMorgan that Australian house prices will fall by 14 per cent in the next year is a case in point. It provided a scary headline that certainly had readers clicking their mice and probably worried some home buyers. I don't know what the horses thought.

And it was most likely hopelessly wrong. If it's a choice between JPMorgan's model echoing the Dr Steven Keen's doomsday scenario on one hand and the combined efforts of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and Macquarie Bank's Rory Robertson on the other, my money is on the latter.........

There's a lot basically ripping in to recent JP Morgan house price D&G prediction (which wasn't all that gloomy anyway) and Ass Prof Keen etc.

A good quote:

Yes, rising unemployment is not good for maintaining house prices, but sharply lower interest rates are. Of those who do lose their jobs, relatively few will actually face foreclosure. Most Australian workers actually don't have a mortgage and of the rest, most have built up a healthy equity buffer to see them through a period of unemployment - which is why our big banks are prepared to capitalise repayments for a year.

On the other hand, as Rory Robertson has repeatedly stressed, monetary policy does work: lift interest rates as the RBA did during the boom and it creates pent-up demand; cut interest rates as the RBA did as the economy slowed and that pent-up demand is unleashed.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[kincella]

not naive at all....but why were govts world wide throwing billions at the banks...to save the economy rubbish..when the banks have not passed it on...I posted an article yesterday how big business worldwide is complaining about the lack of funds

and yes I have been looking to refinance my suncorp loan at 7.75...down to a lower rate....compared to my resi loans at 5.2%...why not...a sensible person would...
the rubbish about a commercial loan is tax deductible hence the margin...well thats the excuse the banks give you....at the same time my resi loans on the properties are tax deductible...without a margin

I know of another rate at 6%...to suit my prime commercial property....but I have another hiccup which is holding things up...which should have been resolved last year....incompetent people responsible....but I am stuck with it...oh and none of them will get any business from me in the future

 

[kincella]

hmmm...now just 3.1 points and it will be at the 50 point level heading towards expansion....
and how long has this thread been running now ??
its time for that other thread to be closed down.....
and am I looking forward to xmas this year.....and party party party......

The construction industry continued to decline in May, but at its slowest rate in 14 months, a survey has found.

The Australian Industry Group (AI Group)/Housing Industry Association (HIA) performance of construction index rose in May by 10.4 points to 46.9.

While the index rose, it remained below the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction.

"Despite the continued subdued state of the construction industry, the latest data provides evidence that the industry is starting to recover some ground following the significant deterioration during 2008 and the first quarter of 2009," said Tony Pensabene, associate director of economics and research at the Australian Industry Group (AI Group).

"This was particularly noticeable in the house building sector

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ion-falling-at-slower-pace-20090605-bxwz.html

 

[kincella]

Chinese wealth is boosting our property market.....well in Melbourne anyway..
surely they would be interested in the rest of Australia.....too
oh...btw they are not FHB or buying into the FHB market....

A GROWING number of Chinese people are taking advantage of a relaxation in Australia's foreign investment laws to buy property in Melbourne.

Real estate agents in the eastern suburbs report that up to half the buyers this year have been part-time residents from China, Hong Kong or Taiwan, or Asian companies buying accommodation for their staff.

Auctioneer Robert Ding, of Jellis Craig in Balwyn, started holding auctions in both Mandarin and English in March. A fortnight ago a multilingual auction resulted in the sale of a $1.838 million house in Balwyn.

Agents from Marshall White in Armadale and Hawthorn, are flying to Shanghai this month with plans to establish an office there to draw more Chinese buyers.

"The massive wealth that they've got is quite daunting in some instances," director John Bongiorno said. "What's attracting them is that there's so much space here ”” it's such a safe haven for them to park their money in terms of good real estate. It's a safe lifestyle, great schooling for their children, no pollution and cheap property by their standards."

http://www.theage.com.au/national/chinese-wealth-boosting-property-market-20090605-bylh.html

 

[kincella]

now the evidence of some of my predictions regarding the housing market here in Australia.....it comes from being in the market for a couple of decades, and being out there, with a big interest in the market....and not reliant on the media to advise what is happening with this housing market
............................................
Careful home buyers move up to next rung
Majella Corrigan | June 06, 2009
Article from: The Australian
THERE is more evidence that the middle sector of Sydney's residential market is seeing activity, with those confident enough of their job security taking the opportunity to trade up. But with an unpredictable future, such buyers are exercising caution over the size of their mortgages.

Last week the auction clearance rates were back at 2007 levels, according to Australian Property Monitors.

One Sydney buyers' advocate, Curtis Associates, has tracked 620 sales in the $700,000 to $2million bracket in Sydney's eastern suburbs, lower north shore and inner west in the two months from mid-March.

More recently, valuer HTW says in its June market review that in some Sydney suburbs the middle market has been "humming along quite nicely", courtesy of low rates, cheaper prices and lots of choice.

This combination is allowing people to trade up more cheaply than nine months ago. HTW defines the middle market as $600,000 to $900,000 in most Sydney suburbs and up to $1.2million in areas close to the central business district.

It says the typical purchaser already lives in the area and needs more space or wants a better quality of living, such as renovated internal fittings or external improvements with entertaining areas and parking.

Such buyers want to stay in their area, close to schools, transport corridors and other services.

Many in the mid to outer suburbs want the complete package, but in inner-city suburbs they are looking at unrenovated property, hoping for eventual capital gain.

HTW says a prime motivation is the potential for a bargain.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25591688-25658,00.html

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Hi All,

I am trying to find some info on defense housing. I have been looking through the DHA website and it seems straight forward.
Has anyone here had any experience with DHA housing?
Or any sites where I could get some more info?

Thanks,

G

 

[kincella]

and now this....oh and in case some dont know....recessions dont last forever....this ones being going for almost 2 years.....its almost over...

British home prices up most in six years

Grainne Gilmore | June 06, 2009
Article from: The Times
BRITISH house prices rose at their fastest pace in over six years last month, but economists were quick to dampen speculation that the market had hit the bottom.

Figures from Halifax showed that property values increased by 2.6 per cent in May, pushing the price of the average UK home up by more than pound stg. 4000 ($8000) to pound stg. 158,565. The jump helped to ease the annual rate of decline in prices to 13.6 per cent from 17.8 per cent in April.

This is only the third time that prices have gone up in the past 21 months, and the finding comes hot on the heels of separate figures from Nationwide showing a rise of 1.2 per cent during the month
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25593547-25658,00.html

 

[robots]

hello,

great posts AGAIN from Kincella, bloody legend man, second to none in the community

check check:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162

another massive 83% clearance rate, just amazing

but we are living in the finest place on the planet

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[MACCA350]

Not surprising with only 166 properties.

cheers

 

[MrBurns]

Not surprising with only 166 properties.

cheers

Slam dunk

 

[Soft Dough]

Can you please put in the median price difference compared to last year as well, perhaps that will give a better indication of the health of the market.