Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep rising for years

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robots said:
oh, gee does anybody remember that guys name, what is it, u know from Western Sydney Uni
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He who laughs last laughs loudest.

Remember the string of wonderful deadcat bounces the stockmarket had WITHOUT government stimulus.

when the floor falls out of this one, I will be at the bottom level with small amounts of cash to offer the people who have to accept it.
 
aleckara said:
Credit drives houses yes, but certain people can only tap a certain amount of credit. ......You renovate, you attract a different buyer who has a higher credit capacity.
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Or more simply a buyer who has more money. Where/how they got it is their business. You assume that 100% of the time the bulk of their money has come from credit - the further up the property ladder you go the less likely this is the case. I know of many people who have bought houses (quite expensive ones) fro cash with money they made from a business, or from a lucrative stint o/s etc.

I don't think its theory kincella. I just think that everyone wants a great lifestyle (myself included) but think that Australia is living beyond its means and our biggest purchase on that Australia credit card is housing (and I think I heard somewhere before that something like 50% of our foreign debt bill is on housing loans - don't remember the exact figure). I'm worried about the future of this country - the debt, and what can happen if house prices keep rising and wages don't rise as fast.
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That's a very Austrian school view of how things work! I don't know off hand what the foreign debt proportion directly related to house mortgages is, but whatever it is, housing debt overall is just not that big an issue (on average) for people with mortgages. The average existing mortgage (for those 2/3 of properties that are mortgaged) is around $200k. Half of those mortgages (probably the bigger ones for tax reasons) are over IPs where our lovely friends the renters pay most of the interest. The other half are funded by OOs who therefore on average currently have to find about $850/month to pay that interest bill - not that hard to do really if you think about it. So really I'm not sure what all the fuss is about.....

I'm worried about our short term focus as Australians and the lack of long term planning to deliver houses, food, goods, and a quality of life without prices rising of these things so it isn't just housing. Maybe I shouldn't - just worry about myself and my profit.
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Some pretty legitimate concerns there - it would definitely have been wiser for the long term to have seen more of the resources boom saved rather than having it all squandered away into permanent tax cuts etc. But as you say - your actions as an individual and/or your views on the housing market are not on their own going to change the economic culture of the entire country! So instead it's better to just understand what's going on and why, and then make the most of the situation given your own means and constraints.

Cheers,

Beej
 
the front page of the fin review today says it all....why the property market is ready to turn....and several articles inside...
I have said for a while now...people will be so dissatisfied with their super they will come back to property as an investment...
and the reduction in how much they can top up their super means it will be more attractive to have an IP than to pay more tax...
oh and the articles state....AUS housing always lifts the economy out of recessions....namely the start is the lower interest rates...that gets them back into housing...housing recovers...then the economy recovers...
and this time is no different.....
I am not suggesting anyone rush out and buy a prop...the market will just have modest growth for another year...and I dont need anymore competition in the market, when I am looking for the bargains...
cheers
 
hello,

and who was that bloke who SOLD his apartment in Sydney a while ago, gee the mind has had a bad couple of days, whats his name, gee i should be getting these, it will pop up some time soon, remember he predicted 40% falls, escapes me

oh well, just going with the flow like Kincella man setting up the next 20, 30, 40, 50 yrs of our lives walking this planet

utopia

thankyou
the real associate professor
 
Hi there Robots....we need a house for a long long time, so regardless if it is a depression or a recession, or boom times....or planning for our retirement,
the price goes higher in line with everything else...and has as much to do with the devalue of the dollar....
history charts to show us where it has gone in the past...so we can predict with reasonable accuracy where its going in the future......
I just need to keep healthy..not that I want to live till 90...but I need to plan in case I do....
on another note...
....a dear old client is on her deathbed this week...she is 92...her husband was a banker, he bought the beautiful unit in Toorak 70 years ago or around about the time of the great depression...1939...it might have cost 1500-3000-5000...today its worth about 800-1 million...
her husband passed away 20 years ago....he left her with top 50 shares..bhp and bank shares, and a few clues on how to look after the investments...she never sold any investments....did not spend all the income...saved and reinvested some each year...played tennis until she was 80, then it was bridge...
so a home for 70 odd years...and a nice bequeath for the 2 children....
what more could one need
 
robots said:
hello,

and who was that bloke who SOLD his apartment in Sydney a while ago, gee the mind has had a bad couple of days, whats his name, gee i should be getting these, it will pop up some time soon, remember he predicted 40% falls, escapes me
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Oh I guess that if he had it still over the past year he would be down 4% rather than up 4% if he had it in cash.... how stupid of him.
 
Soft Dough said:
Oh I guess that if he had it still over the past year he would be down 4% rather than up 4% if he had it in cash.... how stupid of him.
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Ummmm no; Surry Hills unit median price UP 14% ($410k -> $466k) over the past 6 months according to APM data, (check for yourself here: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/snapshot/price/index.cfm?action=view&source=apm). And now it seems prices rising even more and across the board nearly in Sydney - so it looks like a really dumb decision so far.

In other news, another cracker auction weekend in Sydney; 75% clearance rate. (Check out results here: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf )

In those results is a place in an area that I was looking at last year that sold today for $2.1M+ - from what I saw at the end of last year a couple of similar places started out asking $2M+, one didn't sell and was withdrawn from sale and the other needed to sell, so ended up going for $1.75M after a couple of months on the market- if you had the cash that seemed at the time like an excellent buy. This all starts to tell me that the high mid range/top end of Sydney is starting to bounce back now - I think late last year may well turn out to have been the best time for top end bargains in the current slump.

Cheers,

Beej
 
hello,

just amazing Beej the results for Surrey Hills units, up 14% over the past 6mths

as a suburbs changes and the riff raff move out, things pick up typically, fantastic

great research from Beej who has been out on the ground putting in

looking forward to the topend report from Morrell & Koren as well

thankyou

associate professor robots
 
Morning all....news now saying its back to the boom days of 2007..with clearance rates at 80% and the big numbers of sales at auction...anyone note the private sales were about 30% higher...ie 911 PS and 647 auctions...and Melb prices up over 4%...
my research of only the 2 suburbs that I am interested in...showed the bargains were gone in Oct 08...3 months earlier than the rest...
its an amazing recovery....specifically when so many were expecting huge drops in value...
people selling their family homes, gone renting, and waiting for the huge falls before entering the market again...heard another couple bragging of this yesterday on another site.....they may lose far more than the house
and that attitude is very risky imo....I know of people who sold out in 2000, they thought that was the peak....and so far behind now they will never re-enter the market .....
http://www.theage.com.au/national/property-sales-hit-boom-level-20090530-br3w.html
 
I would say the property market has flat lined for a year due to the fhog and low rates. You are kidding if you think this is a boom.
 
well, in fact I dont think its a boom....I clearly stated the 'news' was calling it a boom...
and as we are all well aware...the news has been wrong most of the time since 2000....regarding the property market
so again they are out to scare the 'scaredy cats'...to attempt to frighten them out of their skins....
and again no one with half a brain is listening to the media...
there are numerous reasons why people are heading back into the property market......and interest rates are in the top 10 reasons....

the posters on this and other forums who are positive about property, are generally very experienced in holding property as an investment....
and like me, just trying to impart some knowledge out there for the inexperienced...
otherwise it would be a very boring thread...with all the scaremongering about what might happen, could happen...including references to comparing today to the great depression :sheep::sheep:
 
hello,

yeah top effort Kincella,

in todays Investor lift out from the Age the editorial deals with the changes in Super and the positive impact this is going to have on property, and in particular the continual haven of the "home"

thankyou
associate professor robots
 
Its great to see a really healthy argument about something that is so important to discuss. This can have a major effect on the value of alot of retiress nestegg in the next 10yr's.

Keep it up.
 
Thousands need helping hand

31st May 2009, 10:45 WST

The Salvation Army has warned that charities are facing their worst crisis in more than 20 years as thousands of people face the grim prospect of unemployment.

WA divisional commander Iain Trainor said yesterday the organisation had been overwhelmed with requests for food and emergency financial assistance from people who were facing poverty for the first time because of job losses.

Many could lose their homes because they had taken out mortgages on low or no deposits when the economy was booming. Families who had donated to the Salvos less than a year ago were now requesting assistance.

In response to the many WA people hurting financially, The West Australian has joined the Salvation Army to launch The West Winter Appeal today.

The newspaper is urging West Australians to get behind the appeal to help those less fortunate this winter, typically the most difficult time for disadvantaged families. The Salvation Army funds a range of community services, including its city soup run, homeless shelters, counselling and a refuge for women who have suffered domestic violence.

Despite an unusual dip in March when the Federal Government handed out its stimulus payments, there has been a 25 per cent increase in requests for emergency relief from the Salvos’ support services so far this year compared with the same period last year.

There has been a 30 per cent increase in the value of clothing and furniture provided to needy families, averaging $40,000 a month, on top of a 40 per cent increase in requests for financial assistance.

Major Trainor said job losses in the mining industry meant there had been a noticeable number of former fly-in, fly-out workers needing help. Formerly prosperous small business owners were pulling their children out of private schools and moving to smaller homes to make ends meet.

“They are coming in with multiple problems, not just financial, not just that they can’t pay the bills,” he said.

“Their driving need is that they are just not coping. Many of them never in their lives thought they would need to turn to the Salvation Army.”

The St Vincent de Paul Society has also been inundated with requests for help.

“Anecdotal evidence from our volunteers who deliver welfare to the community has indicated that many people who once relied on seasonal, casual and part-time work in peak business periods have found this work not to be available,” St Vinnies fundraising manager Lucinda Ardagh said.

Major Trainor said there had last been significant demand from people who normally did not need charity in the 1987-88 recession.

DAWN GIBSON
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http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=145061


not sunshine and lollipops for some


just keeping it real brothers

thankyou
 
Industrial land prices plummet, supply falls

28th May 2009, 6:30 WST


Land values across most industrial precincts have plummeted about 30 per cent in the past 12 months, with the knock-on effect of drying up supply.

Colliers International said a 3222sqm property in Kewdale recently sold for $1.44 million or $447/sqm ”” down from the $650/ sqm the seller paid at the peak of the market.

Colliers industrial sales executive Craig Rowe said the sale of the vacant site at 5 Burchell Way represented a 31 per cent contraction in land value.
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http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=359&ContentID=144280


not keeping it too real am i ?
 
nunthewiser...you are living up to your nick....
since when did industrial land have anything to do with this thread....
we are discussing housing....
industrial land has nothing to do with housing...and in fact industrial land is at the bottom of the list for most investors...it has its own unique set of problems at any time...and is always the first to tumble....in a recession...

you seem to be clutching at straws now:D
 
kincella said:
nunthewiser...you are living up to your nick....
since when did industrial land have anything to do with this thread....
we are discussing housing....
industrial land has nothing to do with housing...and in fact industrial land is at the bottom of the list for most investors...it has its own unique set of problems at any time...and is always the first to tumble....in a recession...

you seem to be clutching at straws now:D
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If it's the first, what's next?
Are you saying we're at the beginning of the overall housing market tumble?

cheers
 
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