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House prices to keep rising for years

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oh, gee does anybody remember that guys name, what is it, u know from Western Sydney Uni

He who laughs last laughs loudest.

Remember the string of wonderful deadcat bounces the stockmarket had WITHOUT government stimulus.

when the floor falls out of this one, I will be at the bottom level with small amounts of cash to offer the people who have to accept it.
 
Credit drives houses yes, but certain people can only tap a certain amount of credit. ......You renovate, you attract a different buyer who has a higher credit capacity.

Or more simply a buyer who has more money. Where/how they got it is their business. You assume that 100% of the time the bulk of their money has come from credit - the further up the property ladder you go the less likely this is the case. I know of many people who have bought houses (quite expensive ones) fro cash with money they made from a business, or from a lucrative stint o/s etc.


That's a very Austrian school view of how things work! I don't know off hand what the foreign debt proportion directly related to house mortgages is, but whatever it is, housing debt overall is just not that big an issue (on average) for people with mortgages. The average existing mortgage (for those 2/3 of properties that are mortgaged) is around $200k. Half of those mortgages (probably the bigger ones for tax reasons) are over IPs where our lovely friends the renters pay most of the interest. The other half are funded by OOs who therefore on average currently have to find about $850/month to pay that interest bill - not that hard to do really if you think about it. So really I'm not sure what all the fuss is about.....


Some pretty legitimate concerns there - it would definitely have been wiser for the long term to have seen more of the resources boom saved rather than having it all squandered away into permanent tax cuts etc. But as you say - your actions as an individual and/or your views on the housing market are not on their own going to change the economic culture of the entire country! So instead it's better to just understand what's going on and why, and then make the most of the situation given your own means and constraints.

Cheers,

Beej
 
the front page of the fin review today says it all....why the property market is ready to turn....and several articles inside...
I have said for a while now...people will be so dissatisfied with their super they will come back to property as an investment...
and the reduction in how much they can top up their super means it will be more attractive to have an IP than to pay more tax...
oh and the articles state....AUS housing always lifts the economy out of recessions....namely the start is the lower interest rates...that gets them back into housing...housing recovers...then the economy recovers...
and this time is no different.....
I am not suggesting anyone rush out and buy a prop...the market will just have modest growth for another year...and I dont need anymore competition in the market, when I am looking for the bargains...
cheers
 
hello,

and who was that bloke who SOLD his apartment in Sydney a while ago, gee the mind has had a bad couple of days, whats his name, gee i should be getting these, it will pop up some time soon, remember he predicted 40% falls, escapes me

oh well, just going with the flow like Kincella man setting up the next 20, 30, 40, 50 yrs of our lives walking this planet

utopia

thankyou
the real associate professor
 
Hi there Robots....we need a house for a long long time, so regardless if it is a depression or a recession, or boom times....or planning for our retirement,
the price goes higher in line with everything else...and has as much to do with the devalue of the dollar....
history charts to show us where it has gone in the past...so we can predict with reasonable accuracy where its going in the future......
I just need to keep healthy..not that I want to live till 90...but I need to plan in case I do....
on another note...
....a dear old client is on her deathbed this week...she is 92...her husband was a banker, he bought the beautiful unit in Toorak 70 years ago or around about the time of the great depression...1939...it might have cost 1500-3000-5000...today its worth about 800-1 million...
her husband passed away 20 years ago....he left her with top 50 shares..bhp and bank shares, and a few clues on how to look after the investments...she never sold any investments....did not spend all the income...saved and reinvested some each year...played tennis until she was 80, then it was bridge...
so a home for 70 odd years...and a nice bequeath for the 2 children....
what more could one need
 
hello,

and who was that bloke who SOLD his apartment in Sydney a while ago, gee the mind has had a bad couple of days, whats his name, gee i should be getting these, it will pop up some time soon, remember he predicted 40% falls, escapes me

Oh I guess that if he had it still over the past year he would be down 4% rather than up 4% if he had it in cash.... how stupid of him.
 
Oh I guess that if he had it still over the past year he would be down 4% rather than up 4% if he had it in cash.... how stupid of him.

Ummmm no; Surry Hills unit median price UP 14% ($410k -> $466k) over the past 6 months according to APM data, (check for yourself here: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/snapshot/price/index.cfm?action=view&source=apm). And now it seems prices rising even more and across the board nearly in Sydney - so it looks like a really dumb decision so far.

In other news, another cracker auction weekend in Sydney; 75% clearance rate. (Check out results here: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf )

In those results is a place in an area that I was looking at last year that sold today for $2.1M+ - from what I saw at the end of last year a couple of similar places started out asking $2M+, one didn't sell and was withdrawn from sale and the other needed to sell, so ended up going for $1.75M after a couple of months on the market- if you had the cash that seemed at the time like an excellent buy. This all starts to tell me that the high mid range/top end of Sydney is starting to bounce back now - I think late last year may well turn out to have been the best time for top end bargains in the current slump.

Cheers,

Beej
 
hello,

just amazing Beej the results for Surrey Hills units, up 14% over the past 6mths

as a suburbs changes and the riff raff move out, things pick up typically, fantastic

great research from Beej who has been out on the ground putting in

looking forward to the topend report from Morrell & Koren as well

thankyou

associate professor robots
 
Morning all....news now saying its back to the boom days of 2007..with clearance rates at 80% and the big numbers of sales at auction...anyone note the private sales were about 30% higher...ie 911 PS and 647 auctions...and Melb prices up over 4%...
my research of only the 2 suburbs that I am interested in...showed the bargains were gone in Oct 08...3 months earlier than the rest...
its an amazing recovery....specifically when so many were expecting huge drops in value...
people selling their family homes, gone renting, and waiting for the huge falls before entering the market again...heard another couple bragging of this yesterday on another site.....they may lose far more than the house
and that attitude is very risky imo....I know of people who sold out in 2000, they thought that was the peak....and so far behind now they will never re-enter the market .....
http://www.theage.com.au/national/property-sales-hit-boom-level-20090530-br3w.html
 
I would say the property market has flat lined for a year due to the fhog and low rates. You are kidding if you think this is a boom.
 
well, in fact I dont think its a boom....I clearly stated the 'news' was calling it a boom...
and as we are all well aware...the news has been wrong most of the time since 2000....regarding the property market
so again they are out to scare the 'scaredy cats'...to attempt to frighten them out of their skins....
and again no one with half a brain is listening to the media...
there are numerous reasons why people are heading back into the property market......and interest rates are in the top 10 reasons....

the posters on this and other forums who are positive about property, are generally very experienced in holding property as an investment....
and like me, just trying to impart some knowledge out there for the inexperienced...
otherwise it would be a very boring thread...with all the scaremongering about what might happen, could happen...including references to comparing today to the great depression :sheep::sheep:
 
hello,

yeah top effort Kincella,

in todays Investor lift out from the Age the editorial deals with the changes in Super and the positive impact this is going to have on property, and in particular the continual haven of the "home"

thankyou
associate professor robots
 
Its great to see a really healthy argument about something that is so important to discuss. This can have a major effect on the value of alot of retiress nestegg in the next 10yr's.

Keep it up.
 

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=145061


not sunshine and lollipops for some


just keeping it real brothers

thankyou
 

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=359&ContentID=144280


not keeping it too real am i ?
 
nunthewiser...you are living up to your nick....
since when did industrial land have anything to do with this thread....
we are discussing housing....
industrial land has nothing to do with housing...and in fact industrial land is at the bottom of the list for most investors...it has its own unique set of problems at any time...and is always the first to tumble....in a recession...

you seem to be clutching at straws now
 
If it's the first, what's next?
Are you saying we're at the beginning of the overall housing market tumble?

cheers
 
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