House prices to keep rising for years

[Lancelot]

seems Winter has arrived ?

The Resident RE Permabulls have Hibernated ?

Maybe the budgets of the RE lobby groups are getting slashed and their army of Bloggers are off the payroll and vanishing ?

Maybe they are getting ready to fly off on yet another renter subsidised holiday.

I know I am, 7 weeks in 9 days at my tenants expense then another 8 weeks over xmas. (and no, no borrowings, all CASH)

Lovely

I'll be thinking of you numbercruncher

 

[kincella]

good reply Lancelot....I know a few who either go skiing now, or go to the Sunshine in Qld or overseas for our winter....and the bean counters usually take a break before the new tax season starts
love the conspiracy theorists..about the bloggers here being RE Agents.....hehehehe....hard to believe we are just ordianary property investors.....how hard is that to believe.....apologies to any RE's,
cheers

 

[Beej]

What a bunch of silly posts were made here last night! As Kincella says, please keep the discussion rational and avoid the personal attacks and purile commentary thanks....

On topic: A possible explanation for the difference between ABS figures and those from RP-Data and APM etc (from SMH article today plus also mentioned on ABC news and Lateline last night).

The bureau's results jar with two other private sector surveys which had suggested house prices began to plateau earlier this year, supported by the boosted incentives for first-home buyers. By contrast, the bureau's survey suggested house prices sank another 2.2 per cent in the first three months of this year.

It is possible that because the bureau's survey does not include semi-detached homes and apartments, only detached homes, it does not fully capture this first-home buyer effect.

Semi's, terraces, townhouses and units are 30% of the market, and also happen to be probably 75% of the market for FHBs. I didn't know they were excluded from ABS figures.

So I am still not convinced that you bears should be jumping up and down with quite so much glee. If any of you (those who actually live in Australia and don't own a PPOR) ever actually go out try and buy a property in a lower price range, I think you will still be very surprised at the level of buyer competition and price pressure in that market segment right now for anything decent, despite latest ABS figures. Especially in Sydney....

If however you have $1M-$2M+ to spend, then you might find some nice deals around - but I am sure that none of you will take advantage of the market while it's there for you, and will still be here predicting a house price crash in 5 years when prices are 20%++ higher again than what they are now.....

So let's get some bear predictions on the table? How much do YOU predict prices will fall? What are your buy signals/levels? Do you think houses prices will be lower in 5 years or higher? By how much? Come on - put something out on the table for once instead of just sniping!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[gfresh]

The ABS figures show "houses" falling, and this is the segment I've definitely noticed becoming more available with more on the market under $450k in Brisbane. 12 months I couldn't even entertain the idea of a house, so all going my way so far.

Pretty hard to predict these things, but I'll have a stab and say -12% for Brisbane peak to trough. I give it 3 years (2012), and prices will still be back to where they were in the Brisbane 2007 peak. So they'll drop back to -12% and then back up to where they were in about 2-3 years time. That'll effectively be a 5 year bracket where there was no growth.

But these will just be "universal" figures, may not be applicable in all states or all types of housing, or all price brackets.

 

[dhukka]

What a bunch of silly posts were made here last night! As Kincella says, please keep the discussion rational and avoid the personal attacks and purile commentary thanks....

On topic: A possible explanation for the difference between ABS figures and those from RP-Data and APM etc (from SMH article today plus also mentioned on ABC news and Lateline last night).



Semi's, terraces, townhouses and units are 30% of the market, and also happen to be probably 75% of the market for FHBs. I didn't know they were excluded from ABS figures.

So I am still not convinced that you bears should be jumping up and down with quite so much glee. If any of you (those who actually live in Australia and don't own a PPOR) ever actually go out try and buy a property in a lower price range, I think you will still be very surprised at the level of buyer competition and price pressure in that market segment right now for anything decent, despite latest ABS figures. Especially in Sydney....

If however you have $1M-$2M+ to spend, then you might find some nice deals around - but I am sure that none of you will take advantage of the market while it's there for you, and will still be here predicting a house price crash in 5 years when prices are 20%++ higher again than what they are now.....

So let's get some bear predictions on the table? How much do YOU predict prices will fall? What are your buy signals/levels? Do you think houses prices will be lower in 5 years or higher? By how much? Come on - put something out on the table for once instead of just sniping!

Cheers,

Beej

Your not an economist/revisionist are you Beej? That is, great at creating an explanation in hindsight about what happened in the past (the narrative fallacy) but no better than a chimp with a pencil in his teeth at making predictions about the future.

Now in your desperation you are resorting to the same tactics that the discredited fool Whiskers used - that somehow you occupy the moral high-ground because you have the guts/stupidity to make predictions about the future.

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.

 

[singlefished]

singlefished...
"Last time I mentioned this you scurried around the floor like a cockroach looking for a dark crevice.

C O N D E S C E N D I N G . . . . . . . "

oh and when was that pray tell ?

if you cannot debate the subject... a personal attack is your answer

post #4727 on page 237.

oh... and you've still avoided answering the question.

As Beej notes, a polite non-condescedning response without the elitist remarks would be appreciated thanks

 

[Soft Dough]

The ABS figures show "houses" falling, and this is the segment I've definitely noticed becoming more available with more on the market under $450k in Brisbane. 12 months I couldn't even entertain the idea of a house, so all going my way so far.

Pretty hard to predict these things, but I'll have a stab and say -12% for Brisbane peak to trough. I give it 3 years (2012), and prices will still be back to where they were in the Brisbane 2007 peak. So they'll drop back to -12% and then back up to where they were in about 2-3 years time. That'll effectively be a 5 year bracket where there was no growth.

But these will just be "universal" figures, may not be applicable in all states or all types of housing, or all price brackets.

I think you have got it pretty much sorted out.

except my prediction is 20-25% total fall, with prices returning to value 3-5 years after the trough. That is assuming only 9% unemployment.

if it goes higher... ouch.

 

[Taltan]

post #4727 on page 237.

oh... and you've still avoided answering the question.

As Beej notes, a polite non-condescedning response without the elitist remarks would be appreciated thanks

I realised awhile back it is not possible to have a constructive argument with Kincella. Anything I have posted with figures comparing renting to buying is ignored or responded to with irrelevance (e.g. how many people are on chapel st today). The best you can get out of this thread is links to the permabulls articles like the one on business spectator

 

[kincella]

I avoided answering the question...because I have never stated the market is going to boom in the next 6-12 months.........

 

[Beej]

Your not an economist/revisionist are you Beej? That is, great at creating an explanation in hindsight about what happened in the past (the narrative fallacy) but no better than a chimp with a pencil in his teeth at making predictions about the future.

Now in your desperation you are resorting to the same tactics that the discredited fool Whiskers used - that somehow you occupy the moral high-ground because you have the guts/stupidity to make predictions about the future.

What a ridiculous comment and post! This ENTIRE THREAD (and the other one) is about individuals forecast/view/predictions of the future of house prices! If you are not interested in that why don't you follow your own advice not post anything further on the topic here at all?

Also, I hardly think that analysing some figures and trying to understand why different sources are providing such different information makes me a "revisionist"!

I'd come to expect better from you Dhukka, but with your last post you seem to have joined the group over in the corner jumping up and down with glee and with nothing more to contribute than purile insults. Disappointing......

EDIT: And in the meantime, some good news on the home building approvals front: http://business.smh.com.au/business/home-building-approvals-up-20090505-ata5.html

Home building approvals up
Chris Zappone (SMH)
May 5, 2009 - 11:30AM

Approvals for new homes rose more than expected in March as home buyers took advantage of low interest rates and cash grants.

Permits for new home building increased 3.5%, seasonally adjusted, in March from an upwardly revised 8% increase in February, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, showing Australians warming to the easing costs linked to home ownership.

......

Data from the ABS released yesterday showed a 2.2% decline in home prices in the March quarter nationwide, bring the year to end of March fall to 6.7%.

Nonetheless, unofficial RP Data-Rismark data including townhouses and apartments, showed a 1.6% price increase in the same period.

So if there is anything to be happy about, it should be that the FHB stimulus seems to be NOT pushing up prices after all (if everyone believes the ABS stats and really thinks that the sub $500k range has NOT seen price increases in the last 3-4 months) and instead is seeing a nice uplift in home building, which will be both good for the economy in general, and also good for housing affordability long term by increasing the number of affordable houses (assuming the majority being built are FHB type homes).

Beej

 

[Timmy]

"Can we please refrain from name calling and personal attacks and get this thread back on track?

Nothing worse than seeing a potentially valuable thread descend into chaos through unnecessary conflict.

Please treat others with respect even if you disagree with them.

Thank you all for your co-operation."

 

[Beej]

... and yet more economic "revisionists" having a crack at why the ABS figures don't seem to line up with Q1 APM and RP-Data numbers OR actual buyer experiences/anecdotes in the lower end of the market: http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25431147-5013951,00.html

Top end of market drags house prices lower

By David Uren, The Australian
May 05, 2009 12:00am

TUMBLING house prices at the top end are dragging the national housing market lower, despite the influx of first-home buyers.

House prices fell for the fourth quarter in a row, with the 2.2 per cent drop in the first three months of the year lifting the annual fall to 6.7 per cent. The biggest declines were in Perth, Sydney and Melbourne, The Australian reported.

Real estate analysts say a relatively small number of very expensive houses are being sold at big losses and this is skewing the national figures, despite strong demand from first-home buyers driven mainly by falling interest rates.

....

Rising unemployment is likely to weaken housing demand at the bottom end of the market, as may the expected termination of the boost to the first home owners scheme, which the Government is expected to confirm in next week's budget.

However, real estate analysts say the main reason for the strength of prices at the bottom end of the market is that low interest rates have made it cheaper for young people to buy than to rent.

A year ago, it was twice as expensive to buy as to rent, whereas it was now cheaper to buy than rent in many suburbs.

.....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Knobby22]

"A year ago, it was twice as expensive to buy as to rent, whereas it was now cheaper to buy than rent in many suburbs."


So therefore, Beej, rents will drop!
Renters are leaving the market. Others are sharing or going home to parents to save.
People are reducing their debts in this climate as unemployment goes eventually to double figures.

Have a look at Steven Keens blog.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

 

[Beej]

So therefore, Beej, rents will drop!
Renters are leaving the market. Others are sharing or going home to parents to save.
People are reducing their debts in this climate as unemployment goes eventually to double figures.

Have a look at Steven Keens blog.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

In the short term they might fall, sure. But in the long term rents will only go one way.....

PS: Steven Keen must be just another one of Dhukka's "monkey's with a pencil in his mouth", as he has the gall to make predictions about the future....... I think Keen's predictions are way wrong. Time will tell, and I look forward to him loosing his bet with Rory Roberston!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[enigmatic]

So if there is anything to be happy about, it should be that the FHB stimulus seems to be NOT pushing up prices after all (if everyone believes the ABS stats and really thinks that the sub $500k range has NOT seen price increases in the last 3-4 months)
Not to sure if your having a go at people who believe the ABS stats or trying to have a dig at people saying that the stimulus is proping up house prices..
If you dont believe the stats or you do either way it is basically common knowledge that the stimulus FHOG is proping up prices by more then the grant value itself

and instead is seeing a nice uplift in home building, which will be both good for the economy in general, and also good for housing affordability long term by increasing the number of affordable houses (assuming the majority being built are FHB type homes).
Doesn't this housing affordability in the long term mean that houses prices will drop.. which kind of opposes your views on Realestate prices

I never understand people who will use figures to prove there case and the minute those figures no longer support there case they seem to have a go at how the figures are generated.. Just interesting..

WA is down arround 10% from peak now Lucky i didnt take that advice buying a year ago when i first started looking..

 

[Beej]

Doesn't this housing affordability in the long term mean that houses prices will drop.. which kind of opposes your views on Realestate prices

I have consistently argued that the way that national or city level *average* and *median* house prices can and will fall/correct over the long term is through the provisioning of larger numbers of affordable new homes/units etc. That does not mean that the prices of established property in 100% built area's cannot increase at a rate in excess of the median trend. For those that are worried about long term affordability for the masses, there-in lies the solution, not in a great across the board price crash. No inconsistency there at all.

Also there is the other issue of the economy in general - a housing/construction lead recovery would be a good thing over-all for jobs/incomes/stocks etc etc. I don't just care about R/E you know!

I never understand people who will use figures to prove there case and the minute those figures no longer support there case they seem to have a go at how the figures are generated.. Just interesting...

WA is down arround 10% from peak now Lucky i didnt take that advice buying a year ago when i first started looking..

Hey, I'm only trying to understand why the data is different from ABS vs APM/RP-Data and other sources - not questioning it. Over the long term the ABS data is probably the best we have for recognising the trends. Based on the amount of discussion of the ABS data in the media re how it contrasts with anecdotal evidence of price rises in FHB brackets (which you acknowledge as being common knowledge), I am not the only person in the country asking such questions....

As for Perth, I have also consistently stated that I thought Perth was way over-done, and would never have bought into there in the past 2 years either!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[dhukka]

What a ridiculous comment and post! This ENTIRE THREAD (and the other one) is about individuals forecast/view/predictions of the future of house prices! If you are not interested in that why don't you follow your own advice not post anything further on the topic here at all?

Also, I hardly think that analysing some figures and trying to understand why different sources are providing such different information makes me a "revisionist"!

I'd come to expect better from you Dhukka, but with your last post you seem to have joined the group over in the corner jumping up and down with glee and with nothing more to contribute than purile insults. Disappointing......

EDIT: And in the meantime, some good news on the home building approvals front: http://business.smh.com.au/business/home-building-approvals-up-20090505-ata5.html


So if there is anything to be happy about, it should be that the FHB stimulus seems to be NOT pushing up prices after all (if everyone believes the ABS stats and really thinks that the sub $500k range has NOT seen price increases in the last 3-4 months) and instead is seeing a nice uplift in home building, which will be both good for the economy in general, and also good for housing affordability long term by increasing the number of affordable houses (assuming the majority being built are FHB type homes).

Beej

Oh dear, where to start, in between scurrying about trying to repair your own ego, stop and have real read of what I wrote. I don't object to people making forecasts, quite the contrary. I object to the idea that just because you make forecasts that somehow that elevates you above the unwashed masses that don't.

The literature on so-called expert forecasts clearly shows that an economist is no better at predicting the future of the economy than a taxi driver, the same for stock market analysts.

It's amusing to watch economists show surprise when their forecasts aren't realized when all they need to do is take an objective look at their track record. What is even funnier is that despite being completely wrong they have perfectly rational explanations of why they were wrong, but funny how those explanations only come after the fact. The same as your now perfectly cogent explanation of why prices fell which was not even considered prior to the release of the data. Of course, it's all so obvious now.

Who is the bigger fool? The economist who confidently forecasts the future without any reference to past performance or the taxi driver who shrugs and says I really don't know.

btw continually citing overpaid charlatans (ie economists) in support of your arguments does not bolster your case. If anything it detracts from it.

 

[robots]

hello,

good evening and hope everyone having a fine day

please just relax, its only debate and discussion with the money box crew getting all excited yesterday

having been away from the computer and when i logged on just now i have 378 pm's requesting those sites again, so here they are:

rpdata.com.au

apmpropertydata.com.au

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

uhmmm excuse me....anyone watching ACA...apparently Smart Investor mag...has a list of 700 suburbs with the hotspots.....stacks of suburbs rose 50-70% last year and tipped to rise another 20% this year......its mind boggling stuff......think some got to over 70%...I will have to check out that mag tomorrow
cheers
ps now they have the women learning the trades, and doing their own reno's....good on them, going to classes etc

 

[centex]

uhmmm excuse me....anyone watching ACA...apparently Smart Investor mag...has a list of 700 suburbs with the hotspots.....stacks of suburbs rose 50-70% last year and tipped to rise another 20% this year......its mind boggling stuff......think some got to over 70%...I will have to check out that mag tomorrow
cheers
ps now they have the women learning the trades, and doing their own reno's....good on them, going to classes etc

What are you doing watching ACA Kincella? You seem far too smart for that