House prices to keep rising for years

[Quincy]

"If the government reduces the first home buyers' grant at the same time as forcing banks to tighten lending standards, the lower end of the housing market will face dramatic devaluations"

Article by Robert Gottliebsen, "Business Spectator" - see HERE

 

[Soft Dough]

For a start, you don't need a new kitchen/bathroom every ten years - maybe every 20.

Well obviously we differ here. I have never, and will never live in a property where it is not basically refurbished every 10 years.

As for the "wishful thinking" comment by previous poster regarding price drops. I hope you are not wishfully relying on prices going up or wishfully requiring that they do not come down

 

[Soft Dough]

some of us older experienced people have been offering some good accurate advice about buying property....

just make excuses as to why renting is cheaper....read jan sommers books...about all the excuses people use as to why they should not buy a home

and then watch them squirm when prices go up...not down and they are priced out again.....
I have a theory...if you really want something...you will find a way of obtaining it

Well I'm sorry that I can make 30%+ returns owning businesses and that I do not own properties and can therefore rent and get better alternative returns.

There is logic in renting at the moment, perhaps you do not believe that prices can fall, but they can. Have a look at America and the UK, and remember that our houses are more overvalued than theirs.

The only thing that is protecting the housing market is the huge injections of cash into the market by irresponsible tax cuts and FHBG.

 

[kincella]

unfortunately I dont read Gottliebism....I did many years ago and found him out of touch....just a bland follower for the sheep people

no wishful thinking on my part...I hold several IP's and intend to buy more and reno one this year...and to continue doing same for as long as I can...30 years of retirement in front of me.....oh and now some of my friends who put their money into shares...are really unhappy....but all of them own houses...most without a mortgage....and some have mutliple IP's like self..with manageable mortgages....all a pretty happy with the prop market....
but expect to be even happier in the future....absolutely no gloom here, we leave that for the bears
cheers

 

[dhukka]

All reports so far (RP Data, Residex etc) are indicating median prices in most of AU sans Perth and Brisbane INCREASED in Q1 2009. This will be confirmed by ABS stats in a few weeks. You can deny this all you like but it will not change the facts that are presenting.

I suspect there will be quite a bit of egg on face today. Although I guess you're right if by most of Australia you mean Canberra, Hobart and Darwin. Your constant claims that the Sydney property market has stabilized just don't hold water. Sydney and Melbourne both down more than double Brisbane during the quarter. Dec 08 quarter revised lower, oh yes, stabilization is here.

 

[singlefished]

I suspect there will be quite a bit of egg on face today. Although I guess you're right if by most of Australia you mean Canberra, Hobart and Darwin. Your constant claims that the Sydney property market has stabilized just don't hold water. Sydney and Melbourne both down more than double Brisbane during the quarter. Dec 08 quarter revised lower, oh yes, stabilization is here.

This will be like water off a ducks back I fear....

standard responses to include :

"..... but we were expecting this"
"..... this is nothing new"
"..... median prices are not indicative of the values dropping"
"..... etc, etc, etc"

Pity the figures don't reflect the exaberated falls outwith the lower/middle FHB sector.

 

[kincella]

speaking for myself..but know many others think the same...we prop bulls are pretty sure of ourselves...one eyed you might say....and some compelling numbers for most ....70% of the adult population are home owners.....thats double the amount of renters.....

 

[Beej]

I suspect there will be quite a bit of egg on face today. Although I guess you're right if by most of Australia you mean Canberra, Hobart and Darwin. Your constant claims that the Sydney property market has stabilized just don't hold water. Sydney and Melbourne both down more than double Brisbane during the quarter. Dec 08 quarter revised lower, oh yes, stabilization is here.

This will be like water off a ducks back I fear....

standard responses to include :

"..... but we were expecting this"
"..... this is nothing new"
"..... median prices are not indicative of the values dropping"
"..... etc, etc, etc"

Pity the figures don't reflect the exaberated falls outwith the lower/middle FHB sector.

Seems I don't need to bother typing a reply as there are plenty here happily putting words into my keyboard for me!!

PS: For the record, I am surprised by the ABS stats for this quarter, and it doesn't fit with what I have seen in the area's I watch or in the area's that people I know are currently trying to buy. Also there seems to be conflicting data with APM and RP-Data figures telling a different story - so I suspect that there is a fair bit of median skewing going on due to the widely acknowledged FHB mini-boom in the lower price segments. Having said that, I've never said prices can't fall; they certainly did during 1990 (last recession), before rebounding strongly a few years on. I am still confident that this time around things will prove no different.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Beej]

Quote from SMH article on latest ABS figures: (http://business.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-plunge-despite-cash-boost-20090504-arzw.html)

"We had believed that solid demand from first home buyers would have prevented a fall in house prices in the March quarter," wrote JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans.

First home buyer demand has increased since the Government expanded the grant in October, she wrote.

"This burgeoning demand has kept house prices at the lower end of the house price spectrum well supported," she said.

"It seems, though, that these price gains were swamped by falling prices at the top end of the market."

Seem's JP Morgan's Helen Kevans had similar views on the market to mine. IMO her explanation seems logical given the conflicting data from other sources and the clear FHB mini-boom figures.

Either way, I didn't particularly enjoy my piece of humble pie that I just had to eat for lunch

Cheers,

Beej

 

[singlefished]

Seems I don't need to bother typing a reply as there are plenty here happily putting words into my keyboard for me!!

PS: For the record, I am surprised by the ABS stats for this quarter, and it doesn't fit with what I have seen in the area's I watch or in the area's that people I know are currently trying to buy. Also there seems to be conflicting data with APM and RP-Data figures telling a different story - so I suspect that there is a fair bit of median skewing going on due to the widely acknowledged FHB mini-boom in the lower price segments. Having said that, I've never said prices can't fall; they certainly did during 1990 (last recession), before rebounding strongly a few years on. I am still confident that this time around things will prove no different.

Cheers,

Beej

I think you're right in that our houseprices will certainly again one day bounce back after the economy sorts itself out (whenever that may be...), there's only a few misguided individuals I believe who seem certain we're following the same path as Japan.

...but certainly what is worrying is the median skewing you mentioned due to higher volumes at the lower end. It seems REIV wasn't too far off with what they published only a few days ago.

 

[kincella]

its the median figures they are using
if they said 100 houses sold 50 @ 500 and 50 @ 400 the average would be 450...and if they could prove all houses were advertised at a higher price but sold for a lower price I would tend to agree with their figures

...if the majority of houses selling are in the 400-600 range and the middle number is 400 ...there you go...that is the magic figure they are all raving about.....but...it does not mean the price of homes in the 600k range has fallen in price....nor the 400k...which have probably increaed in price......
phoohey to the 1 or 2% figure...clutching at straws...playing scaredy cats again......
out to shopping now for some big sales....
cheers

 

[numbercruncher]

Hello,

" House prices to keep rising for years "


haha funny stuff .....

House prices tumble 7 percent as job pressure grows
4/05/2009 12:00:00 PM
By Emma Thelwell, ninemsn Money

House prices across the nation have fallen by almost 7 percent in the last year, piling pain on cash-strapped families already nursing heavy losses on their superannuation funds.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics survey reveals homeowners in Perth were the hardest hit, with prices down over 10 percent after falling more than 3 percent in the final quarter.

House prices in Sydney have dropped 7.3 percent in the year to the end of March, while Melbourne saw a 6.7 percent drop, Brisbane was down 6.3 percent and Adelaide slipped 2 percent. Meanwhile, house prices in Canberra suffered a 5 percent drop in value.

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=809366

Thankyou.

 

[SBH]

Hello,

" House prices to keep rising for years "


haha funny stuff .....




http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=809366

Thankyou.

May as well close down the thread boys. Seems the crash is playing to the script perfectly. FHOG? No problem, just a blip on the radar.. crash continues on regardless. Whod have thought australia had less power to stop a housing crash than US or britain? Every bear on the forum thats who!

I wonder if rudd will let housing roll over die its natural death on budget night..........

 

[MrBurns]

May as well close down the thread boys. Seems the crash is playing to the script perfectly. FHOG? No problem, just a blip on the radar.. crash continues on regardless. Whod have thought australia had less power to stop a housing crash than US or britain? Every bear on the forum thats who!
I wonder if rudd will let housing roll over die its natural death on budget night..........

Rudd will prop it up as long as YOU still have money in your wallet to fund it.

House prices will rise again beyond their previous highs but in the meantime it will create great buying opportunities, not like the FHB's that were sucked into the bubble.

 

[dhukka]

Seem's JP Morgan's Helen Kevans had similar views on the market to mine.

Yes, she was just as wrong as you were.

 

[robots]

hello,

looks as though they on some of Burnsie's cheech & chong gear at the ABS, amazing

just goes to show you cant trust the government, i am starting see what you all go on about now

oh well, lucky we have APM Property Monitors and RPData to get the proper results out to the community, paradise

i think we will use data APM or RPdata for the bet Satanoperca, what you think?

word out to ROE, thanks for the encouragement

thankyou
robots

 

[nunthewiser]

The Australian Bureau of Statistics house price index - an average of prices in the nation's eight capitals - fell 2.2 per cent in the March quarter, the fourth straight quarterly decline.

Prices dropped 6.7 per cent annually.

Perth house prices were the hardest hit, dropping 3.6 per cent in the March quarter and 10.1 per cent over the year. In NSW, prices fell 2.9 per cent over the quarter and 7.3 per cent in the year to March.

http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=570462

Inflation is all but dead ... the recession is killing inflation and now that the Australian dollar has stabilised, Australia is confronting a greater threat of deflation, than any inflation risks," TD Securities senior strategist Annette Beacher said.

sunshine and lollipops boys ?

 

[robots]

Hello,

" House prices to keep rising for years "


haha funny stuff .....

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=809366

Thankyou.

hello,

"house prices keep rising for years"

rpdata.com.au
apm property monitors.com.au

paradise

thankyou
robots

 

[MrBurns]

hello,

"house prices keep rising for years"

rpdodgy.com.au
apm property value manipulators.com.au

paradise

thankyou
robots

I agree

 

[nulla nulla]

Merely consolidation before the next upswing. Sorry fella's but that penthouse in Point Piper is going to remain a pipedream.