House prices to keep rising for years

[satanoperca]

hello,

push bike riding alcopop drinker Satanoperca, ruskies all the way, keep an open mind

1 up though bro, so i wont be buying

if its a draw?

thankyou
robots

More along the line of red wine drinking, convertible driving Satanoperca.

What exactly are you 1 up on, the finish line is still months away.

If it is a draw, go to the pub, eat parma and drink beer.

Cheers

Kincella, I am actively looking at buying again. The bargains in the bayside suburbs of Port and South Melbourne have disappeared in the last month. There was a few around late last year. For properties priced well, they are selling quite quickly under 800K. The last week has seen a lot more come onto the market over the previous months and only time will tell how the market will react.

 

[apra143]

Once again, delaying the inevitable:
Government, banks join forces on mortgage rescue plan

The Australian Bankers Association's David Bell says the Commonwealth, NAB, Westpac and ANZ banks will postpone home loan repayments for up to 12 months for people in hardship.

House prices to keep rising for at least one more year

 

[robots]

hello,

Satanoperca post#3524 from other thread:

"Picking the few suburbs (those will high FHB - government assisted) does not strengthen your arguement that house prices are not falling.

I reviewed the Sunday Sun list of property prices per suburb. Interesting some suburbs did Ok and some did not so well, the last qtr being more telling to the slide into recession that is now facing us.

Even our beloved PM sees we cannot swim against the tide any more. Given this statement, is property the only thing that is going against the current trend for assets - I hardly think so.

Like Steven Keens bet, how about we have a fun wavier to keep everything in good spirits. I will bet you that house and apartment prices in Victoria based on median will be negative after the 2nd qty results are released. This would be deemed a fall, how much, as long as it is negative. If I loose I will buy you a case of your favourite beer and vise visa. To finalise the deal, we meet in a pub in sunny St Kilda (a great place to live i agree), have a few beers and a meal and leave with our bounty.

On the issue of renter over mortgage, please factor in a value for if property prices fall, even 5%. I would rather be the renter - times are a changing.

Cheers

Benjamin"

just transferring to king of property threads, considering the results so far a big drop is required

house and apartments too, so if one positive one negative, robots collecting

paradise, the ruskies on the way

thankyou
robots

 

[satanoperca]

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25288384-14327,00.html

Maybe not something new but does link up with the mortgage relief topic. Banks may give mortgage holder the chance to delay payments for up to one year but the devil is in the detail which has not been released yet. If it will result in them going into negative equity do you think the banks will be so willing to grant relief.

Kincella, you asked what could cause a drop of 40%, if banks started rationing credit and reduced LVR's to say 60%, you would see a drop in housing that could result in a bad negative feedback loop, even though this is unlikely, part of it may be a possibility resulting in a large drop in RE prices.

Just have to look at the commerical property sector lending where banks have started tight rationing and overseas banks are slowly pulling out of the sector due to trouble back home. Macquarie has recently been caught by this problem, tight credit, lower asset values and higher interest rates. Unless RUDD bank steps in with a helping hand.

The next federal budget will be interesting and it's effect on the confidence of the general public - back into the red we go.

I assume that this relief will not be available to IP's but I could be wrong.

 

[kincella]

Robots...I would like to ask a favour of you...when you are cycling around your fav suburbs...would you please take note of how many building developments are taking place....I was amazed at the group over in glenferrie rd...as stated yestrday...and I will take a closer look today..
what we are looking for is the real story...of whats happening out there on the ground...
cheers
when talking about location.... I only like certain streets...not the whole suburb...so need to add to my list....
I also like the top end of Mathoura Rd...near Toorak Rd...I note the penthouse was sold....hardly on the market for 2 minutes

 

[kincella]

satan opera...
couple of things...firstly how did you come up with your nick name ???

then the problem with commercial is, all the macca's and gpt's went out and purchased good properties...then loaded them to the hilt with debt...
so when the group goes bust...instead of affecting 10 properties it affects 20 or more each trust...
however..since we are not all tarred to the one brush.....I believe there will be plenty of interest from cashed up players ready to take on a commercail property.....
the smsf have been busy in the market the past 5 years...its an evolution to moving on from the traditional stocks, cash and resi market....

the office sector is usually the first to take a hit....and I for one would not bother , but there have been some terreific examples I could have taken up and made a load of money on.....

some good opportunities out there coming up...for those people with some cash and a longer term view

 

[singlefished]

I think we should start 2 new threads since the goalposts keep on moving

House prices with Government intervention

House prices without Governement intervention

:

It's pretty fair to say that nobody really factored in how the Government would play their cards. Which I suppose is a good thing, nothing worse than a predictable Government IMO!

Budget time will be interesting for sure. I wonder what other surprises Lindsay Tanners little glove puppet will provide us with...

 

[kincella]

just wondering if I should look at the auctions and maybe find me a little s/h audi roadster.... for me and the dog...
otherwise might have to go looking for a new car with zero interest rates....a green car of course...

 

[satanoperca]

Kincella,

Google Satanoperca, you will find that it belongs to a species of amazon fish, referred to by the natives of the area where it is found as the devil fish even though it is non aggressive and peaceful. Living in an apartment, a dog is not a good choice for a pet, so I keep a large community fish tank based on an Amazon river biotype.

I have been down Hawthorn way recently and there seems to be a lot of residential development. I assume that most of what is under construction has been in the planning process for several years. It will be interesting to see in the next six months how much new development gets underway. The banks have already changed their lender criteria for commercial developments catching out even well resourced developers.

Audi roadsters are a really nice car and can be picked up second hand quite cheap at the moment, also look at Mazda MX5. Great car to drive, lots or fun, reliable, good value and a good time to buy going into winter.

 

[satanoperca]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5527137.ece

Found on another site.
This mortgage relief could have a negative effect on the property prices.

Yes, I know we are different in Australia.

Cheers

 

[overlap]

hello,

Satanoperca post#3524 from other thread:

"Picking the few suburbs (those will high FHB - government assisted) does not strengthen your arguement that house prices are not falling.
.

thankyou
robots

For a moment there I thought you'd put together some coherent reasoning.
But you were just quoting someone.

 

[IFocus]

I think we should start 2 new threads since the goalposts keep on moving

House prices with Government intervention

House prices without Governement intervention

:

It's pretty fair to say that nobody really factored in how the Government would play their cards. Which I suppose is a good thing, nothing worse than a predictable Government IMO!

Budget time will be interesting for sure. I wonder what other surprises Lindsay Tanners little glove puppet will provide us with...

LOL Singlefished yes I didn't factor how effective the Gov intervention could be holding the market up but I also though unemployment would have been higher too.

So far the contraction in the economy has been trending down but at a nice steady rate giving the Gov plenty of time to adjust policy accordingly.

May budget should spell out a clearer picture of Treasury's expectations for rest of 09 and into 2010 cannot see it being pretty as Gov talking unemployment up currently.

 

[MrBurns]

Mortgage relief will just postpone the housing crash a little and put the banks under a lot of financial pressure.

Nissan 350Z are great, dunno if thats in the price range though.

 

[satanoperca]

hello,

just transferring to king of property threads, considering the results so far a big drop is required

house and apartments too, so if one positive one negative, robots collecting

paradise, the ruskies on the way

thankyou
robots

Yes a massive drop <2%, to bet this years 1.1% rise based on January figures and indicative February figures from the RPdata.

ABS figures come out in May, then you can chaulk one up on the board if positive.

IFocus, the may budget will be interesting. I think it will present a picture to average Joe that all is not what it seems resulting in reduced consumer confidence as he/she sees the billions of dollar the Government is in the red and how serious the current situation is if we wish to maintain our current standards of living in this great country.

Cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

dont forget the apartments, they in the bet you made which I gladly accepted

no worries Kincella i will report

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

Robots, thank you
oh and is it just me, or is there a growing number of posters on here, actually in the market and actively looking to buy a house...?

remember when you buy....expect to keep needing a roof over your heads for the next 60 years for 30 year olds and less for the older ones....
thats a long time to be holding property...or turning it over on a regular basis..7-10 years....I dont know of many who do change....most people I know have been in the same house since marriage...I am in the 20 year group
cheers

 

[singlefished]

May budget should spell out a clearer picture of Treasury's expectations for rest of 09 and into 2010 cannot see it being pretty as Gov talking unemployment up currently.

It will be telling for sure. I think that treasury has maybe had a bit of a shock at the projected unemployment rates so the budget will be massively skewed to hopefully keep the economy intact. I hope Turnbull will give up on his political jousting, delay & point scoring tactics ~ it hasn't done him much good in the polls and could likely be construed as counter productive especially if the Government really goes out on a limb.

Lindsay Tanner, the beady eyed accountant that he is, has my approval with the keys to the purse strings however... Comes across as confident, competent, hard working and reasonably honest as a politician.

Mortgage relief will just postpone the housing crash a little and put the banks under a lot of financial pressure.

I'm not so sure now. I can see a few of the smaller banks feeling slightly vulnerable but mortgage relief will take away a bit of worry and provide somewhat of a floor throughout the stressed parts of the market. Prices certainly won't be booming again for a long time but they wont be massively dropping under duress from stressed unemployed homeowners looking for a quick sale.

I still think there is a load of downside for sure and some sectors will certainly see declines over the coming year but nothing that will blow your socks off.

just wondering if I should look at the auctions and maybe find me a little s/h audi roadster.... for me and the dog...
otherwise might have to go looking for a new car with zero interest rates....a green car of course...

A nice little TT, 5~6 year old, less than $30K. I wouldn't pay any more than $15K for anything over 9~10 yrs.

Or you could go the R8 route if you're really wanting to splash out. $210K for 2008 model on carsales with only 10K on the clock. Don't get a green one though, Audi always looks best in silver

 

[singlefished]

Bit of bad news for FHB's :

Banks slashing maximum loan ratios

MORTGAGE lenders are slashing loan ratios in a bid to protect themselves against falling house prices.
In the past fortnight, Commonwealth Bank, Bankwest, ING, Challenger, Citibank and Suncorp have all cut their maximum loans from 95 per cent to 90 per cent of the property value - and may cut further. ANZ cut its maximum loan to 90 per cent last November.

The move is designed to ensure the bank can recover the loan value, if the house has to be sold in the event of a loan default.


--- snip ---


Westpac and NAB say their 95 per cent maximum loans are "under review" and may be adjusted soon.

Many experts fear that, by reducing the amount people can borrow, banks will trigger a fall in house prices because, if buyers cannot borrow as much as before, they will not be able to pay as much as previous buyers.

This kind of credit rationing led to the US housing crash, with lenders progressively cutting maximum loans, so buyers could no longer afford to purchase.

If the government cuts back the first home-buyer grant in June, this lowering of loan ratios by the banks may increase the chances of an abrupt fall in prices.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25288384-14327,00.html

FHB purchasing power will effectively be halved now based on their current savings... and if the banks stop accepting FHBG as part of the deposit?

I wonder how the Government will tackle this.

 

[numbercruncher]

Ahhhhhh so its looking like credit is the ultimate fundamental after all huh ??

House prices to keep rising for years

And I had dinner with the tooth fairy .....

 

[robots]

hello,

looks like you need new glasses Numbercruncher:

rpdata.com.au

straight up on the home page

paradise, things can be hard to accept, just try and keep yourself occupied, read a book, go for walk or something

your fearless leader has walked, the team is slowly realising the situation

thankyou
robots