House prices to keep rising for years

[singlefished]

In general they haven't, but prices in the western subs have fallen in that period
and now that interest rates fell and the FHB's grant came along
the situation in the lower priced parts of Sydney has changed.

It's actually happening right now, as soon as 1 property sells for near asking price if not more ,
the next one will be listed at a higher price. I know because I'm looking to buy as an investment
and unfortunately there are a lot of buyers out there, mostly FHB's pushing prices up.

Quite ironic isn't it ~ it's the lower socio-economic community based out in these burbs that will be hit worst with the recession yet this is where you're spruiking the current epicentre for the Sydney "property boom" is and will subsequently spead to the east from here to the more effluent D) suburbs...

A vast proportion of Australias manufacturing and exporting derives from these very western suburbs you speak of yet the sectors of the economy that support this demographic are the ones that are failing fastest and that's a trend that will not likely ease up with the lack of business credit out there and the cheaper costs of manufacturing that can be achieved by taking your business overseas ~ look at Bonds for case in point.

I can assume that you're obviously of the belief that the worst has already been seen in the economy and you also expect that it too will also grow from here???

 

[gfresh]

The annual average rate of change in population in the Townsville/Thuringowa between 30 June 2000 and 30 June 2005 was 2.5%, compared with 2.2% for Queensland.[23]

Sounds a bit like the Goldcoast.. now the easy money has dried up, a lot of those involved with construction industry are heading back to where they came from. Many that have only been here a couple of years also see the writing on the wall, chuck in the towel and go back to live closer to their family.

The flow-on is that many smaller and medium businesses that relied on highly discretionary income (boat builders, car sales, hairdressers, beauticians,etc) are suffering a lot at the moment. Many will just stay in business, but with greatly reduced profits, only just getting by, leaving not much discretionary income for the rest of the local economy. And a lot are mum & dad businesses, with their house staked as equity... problems there. Not where I would feel safe buying at the moment - Brisbane is a little different.

Went to a couple of OFI's this morning.. probably 4 or 5 couples at each aged 25-30-ish. Places should sell pretty quickly, were not too bad... although up close to $400k 20km from the city. That whole Melbourne and Sydney outer-suburb thing of under $300k for a house just doesn't exist here, so FHB have to stake up a lot more.

 

[lioness]

Can anyone provide an updated link for todays auction results for Melbourne such as this one for last week by Robots??

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162#S

Thanks in advance.

Thank god for FHB, they are swarming all over my unit in Brunswick.

I have the auction next week and be glad to dump it on their heads.

 

[billv]

I can assume that you're obviously of the belief that the worst has already been seen in the economy and you also expect that it too will also grow from here???

I don't know about the Oz economy but I believe Sydney has already been in recession for the past 2 years and that things can't get much worse.

That's my opinion, I can't predict the future, none can.
All I can do is to analyse the information I have on hand and plan for my future.
I always invest when I am ready and always have an exit plan.

My last purchase was 12 months ago so it's time for me to go for 1 more.
I am not over extending myself, I don't cross col and I always borrow 80% so I am fairly conservative with my investments.

 

[knocker]

I don't know about the Oz economy but I believe Sydney has already been in recession for the past 2 years and that things can't get much worse.

That's my opinion, I can't predict the future, none can.
All I can do is to analyse the information I have on hand and plan for my future.
I always invest when I am ready and always have an exit plan.

My last purchase was 12 months ago so it's time for me to go for 1 more.
I am not over extending myself, I don't cross col and I always borrow 80% so I am fairly conservative with my investments.

lol You say Sysdney has been in recession for the past 2 years and things will not get worse. hahaha very humorous. You Sydneysiders lead such a sheltered existence. Wait until the rest of Oz as you put it, goes into recession. Good luck with you blind optimism.

 

[knocker]

I agree with your sentiment...

As to prices locally

http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2009/03/06/43001_hpnews.html

Would not want to live anywhere near Townsville or Hamiliton Island right now, with hamish picking up speed. Wonder how all those coastal properties will fair with rising tides and cyclone force winds. Good luck

 

[shaunQ]

My last purchase was 12 months ago so it's time for me to go for 1 more.
I am not over extending myself, I don't cross col and I always borrow 80% so I am fairly conservative with my investments.

I had to double take at that - I thought you meant 80% deposit, but no, 80% debt - very conservative. Don't stop at one, there's lots of bargains now so you may as well pick up two - you can't lose!

 

[robots]

hello,

lioness, the results will get on about 7-7.30pm tonite, will post as soon as on man

yes it all is an internet conspiracy, not much has changed really, people still out and about, havent seen the soup line yet

paradise everywhere you look, of course the bludgers of society will continue to tell us how bad things are

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

Sydney auction results for today posted now: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf

71% clearance rate on 123/173 with only 2 properties withdrawn. That last part is significant, withdrawals have been common-place up until the last few weeks, so this, in addition to 6 weeks of strong clearance rates, is a clear indicator that buyer competition is back and we may be swinging from a buyers to a sellers market here in Sydney....

Median sale price from the auctions was $623k, and again several $1M+ sales like last week, including 5 $2M+ sales.

How long can this last I wonder? Certainly no great house price crash going on here in Sydney at the moment - quite the opposite! If the newspapers and ASF forums weren't screaming doom and gloom I'd almost think we were in a booming R/E market? Can any of the bears please explain to me how this can be happening?

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Largesse]

beej

i'd be considered bullish on property just like yourself but the stats you are using are meaningless.
so what if there were 'several $1m+ sales... including 5 $2M+ sales'
whats to say those properties weren't all worth 1.5x or even 2x that last year?

 

[robots]

hello,

top effort up there in Syd man, and here's Melbourne:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162

mid seventies, top effort by Enzo in getting the numbers together, true professional of the industry

this is unbelievable, isnt it great to be alive

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

beej

i'd be considered bullish on property just like yourself but the stats you are using are meaningless.
so what if there were 'several $1m+ sales... including 5 $2M+ sales'
whats to say those properties weren't all worth 1.5x or even 2x that last year?

Well there are 2 points, which I will use to show the info is not meaningless.

The first point is that sales in those price brackets regardless of discounting were struggling late last year as the share market crashed and many of the big finance companies went under etc. Ie there were few high end buyers around. The fact places in this price range are selling now is a positive sign for the market - it means buyers with that level of cash/finance are coming back into the market. They are probably different people than previous buyers (ie no B&B executives this time around!), but it shows that there are still folks with serious money in the market.

The second point is you can click through and see exactly what is selling at those prices (which I do because I am interested in real estate). It is very hard to tell what a particular property may or may not have sold for say last year vs this year, as rarely does the exact same property change hands in that sort of time frame. However, I know the Sydney market pretty well, and when I look at those sales it looks to me like they are solid prices for the properties and locations in question. In fact one of them - $2.8M for an apartment right on Bondi beach, seems like a very impressive price (ie not discounted at all compared to boom/peak prices): http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007584982

Cheers,

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

Originally Posted by billv
My last purchase was 12 months ago so it's time for me to go for 1 more.
I am not over extending myself, I don't cross col and I always borrow 80% so I am fairly conservative with my investments.

What % has that place gone down that you bought 12 months ago ? whats it yield ?

 

[robots]

What % has that place gone down that you bought 12 months ago ? whats it yield ?

hello,

tell them nothing Billv, for years the critics have wanted to know what "other" people have

let them lay it on the table,

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

tell them nothing Billv, for years the critics have wanted to know what "other" people have

let them lay it on the table,

thankyou
robots

Its not like im asking or even interested in peoples $$ im just asking for %%% ...

 

[Glen48]

Brisbane houses down 20=25% Pullenvale up 34% so they tell us. Won't be long before you get a house with each set of Steak Knives. USA is still falling..11K for a block of land in the place they use to call Lost Wages now it's lost everything.

 

[Beej]

Brisbane houses down 20=25% Pullenvale up 34% so they tell us. Won't be long before you get a house with each set of Steak Knives. USA is still falling..11K for a block of land in the place they use to call Lost Wages now it's lost everything.

Got a link to some data that shows Brizzy house price down 20-25% across the board? As usual for your bogus stats and assertions I suspect not..... ABS stats show Brisbane prices off a whopping 1.4% over the 12 months to Dec 08 by the way: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/MF/6416.0.

Beej

 

[singlefished]

Brisbane houses down 20=25% Pullenvale up 34% so they tell us. Won't be long before you get a house with each set of Steak Knives. USA is still falling..11K for a block of land in the place they use to call Lost Wages now it's lost everything.

Seen this on Nine news this evening too, not sure if they were talking all of Brissy or if they just quoted the worst of the quaterly declines.... it will certainly be worth the pennies buying the newspaper tomorrow for the quaterly pull-out.

Another stellar weekend at the auctions.... 28.125%

 

[singlefished]

Got a link to some data that shows Brizzy house price down 20-25% across the board? As usual for your bogus stats and assertions I suspect not..... ABS stats show Brisbane prices off a whopping 1.4% over the 12 months to Dec 08 by the way: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/MF/6416.0.

Beej

The numbers they mentioned on TV are quaterly drops.... will find out tomorrow in the mail (I think) as they mentioned there is some special pull-out or something detailing all the suburbs quaterly movements.

I'm not sure if the Sydders weekend rags will have it?

 

[Bill M]

Young families defying recession to lead revival

WESTERN Sydney is in the grip of a property mini-boom, with exclusive NSW Treasury figures revealing that young families are defying a national recession.

Liverpool, Campbelltown and Fairfield have recorded 12 per cent rises in sales, a six-year high, while Blacktown and Penrith have seen a 20 per cent increase.

A total of 8455 contracts were exchanged on new and existing homes during the three-month period in the Western Suburbs - an increase of more than 1100 over the same period last year.

FULL STORY HERE