House prices to keep rising for years
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Hi Bulls
I haven't bothered to read the 201 pages before this 1 because I know what it's all about
but thought I should post here to let you know I am around and that I'm a bull as well
So yes I agree property prices will keep rising and we are half way through the next cycle
so people get out there and buy buy buy and get ready for the next boom...
I haven't bothered to read the 201 pages before this 1 because I know what it's all about
but thought I should post here to let you know I am around and that I'm a bull as well
So yes I agree property prices will keep rising and we are half way through the next cycle
so people get out there and buy buy buy and get ready for the next boom...
numbercruncher
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sO HOW LONG HAS THIS CYCLE BEEN GOING THEN ? IS IT NATIONWIDE ? excuse caps ...
Numbercruncher
I was actually referring to Sydney, which peaked in 2003.
We've been 6 years in this cycle so it's time for the markets to move upwards again.
In the past 6 years my wages have increased by 30% so my affordability has been improving while property prices have fallen or stayed the same.
So we have increased wages, lower interest rates & higher rents in a tight rental market. At the same time we have record low new building approvals
and increased population so provided we can get loans, property prices will have to go up.
Duck Billv - you are about to get bombarded with a dozen or so property bear responses containing pure unsubstantiated conjecture, but delivered with absolute certainty and confidence; almost religious zeal - be prepared!
Cheers,
Beej
Do you think so?
I bet they're sick of waiting for the sky to fall and are about to change camps and join us....
Bill M
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So yes I agree property prices will keep rising and we are half way through the next cycle
so people get out there and buy buy buy and get ready for the next boom...
I don't know how relevant this clock is anymore but if it is right then I reckon we are at 7 O' clock. We are definitely at falling interest rates.
Attachments
no fair ... let him walk into the tiger trap
anyhoo...
From Lateline Business 4/3/09
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/latelinebusiness/av/podcast/20090304-latebiz-gdp-proper_video4.m4v
I agree with your sentiment...
As to prices locally
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2009/03/06/43001_hpnews.html
numbercruncher
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I woulda thunk the permabulls would have something to say about that little wildcard ....
As an aside in the past 12 months my income has risen substantially, house prices (in my area) have tumbled and continue to do so, along with interest rates , yet im in no hurry to re-enter the RE market as it is awash with stock ..... the money renters all seem to be bolting for the door at once ..... such a predicatable mob .... Its a buyers market and its trending down ...... wake me up when quantative easing kicks off ..... all roads lead to Zimbabwe one punter reckoned ...
It could be, depends on the location
Don't worry the media will do that and will be very accurate as well
numbercruncher
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I read the Westies are cutting loose with fists full of Gov handouts ??
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=768272
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=768272
I think you'll find it's not just westies buying.
There is a large proportion of investors who think that 5-7% returns in this economic environment where inflation is 4% and our money in the bank is earning next to nothing are not to be ignored.
Unfortunately the first home buyers are just bringing competition to the market so investors & FHB's are both ending up paying more.
numbercruncher
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Bill M
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Sydney is doing just fine and this story seems to sum up quite well as to what's going on in my area.
Nest-egg buying hots up
However with many portfolios dropping 40 per cent in value people with money to invest are again looking favourably at bricks and mortar.
We are starting to see mums and dads looking at an investment unit as their superannuation and anything sub $1 million is attracting them, he said.
Click here for the full story
Nest-egg buying hots up
However with many portfolios dropping 40 per cent in value people with money to invest are again looking favourably at bricks and mortar.
We are starting to see mums and dads looking at an investment unit as their superannuation and anything sub $1 million is attracting them, he said.
Click here for the full story
I've been saying here and in the other property thread for months that this has been going on - the media only cottons on well after the fact (in both the case of a soft/falling market and the beginning of any turn-around).
So in Western Sydney we now have confirmed rising volumes AND rising prices - most action in sub $500k bracket. So think people; what happens next?? Ie all those owners selling to those sub $500k places - what will a large proportion of them do next with their sale proceeds? Come on - this really is not rocket science.... I'll give you a clue - the auction results for the past 4 weeks in Sydney are already telling us the answer (but the media won't notice for a few months).
PS: Even top end is starting to shift a bit more now - one of my local papers (Mosman Daily) lists several $3M/$4M private treaty sales of premium property - wasn't seeing too many of those last year (although it's not like houses at that price sell by the dozen each weekend). The other local paper (North Shore Times) has this weeks top 10 sales starting at $1.375M (Castlecrag) and rising to $2.04M as number one (Longueiville). These properties are all still a bit cheaper than they might have been 12-18 months ago by up to 10% (but it is really hard to judge as each is unique). However, they seem to be selling like hotcakes at current prices in the current market, so it looks to me like the north shore of Sydney has found it's floor on prices for this cycle - this quarters median stats may even show a rise over-all just because there are more higher priced properties being sold across the board when compared to last half of last year.
Cheers,
Beej
In general they haven't, but prices in the western subs have fallen in that period
and now that interest rates fell and the FHB's grant came along
the situation in the lower priced parts of Sydney has changed.
It's actually happening right now, as soon as 1 property sells for near asking price if not more
, the next one will be listed at a higher price. I know because I'm looking to buy as an investment
and unfortunately there are a lot of buyers out there, mostly FHB's pushing prices up.
history repeating again....after the 2000 tech wreck....took my money and left it in the bank.....daughter had been telling me about a house opposite to where she lived, she wanted me to buy ...it was on the market and awfully cheap, the owner was being relocated with his job....asking price was 85,000...inner city, regional city.....that was about march 2000....by May, owner changed mind and took it off the market....daughter was not happy with me...
suddenly, one Sunday night in July 2000 she called, saw them putting up the for sale sign....Monday morning I called the agent....asking price 115,000...same house nothing changed...except the price was now 30,000 more than 4 months earlier.....daughter wanted me to buy it Mon morning....I said I had to have a look inside first,,,,so at the first open house the following Sat...35-40 people were there at the opening, I sqeezed around , had a quick look...and told the agent I would take it....
that was 5 minutes after the opening...I signed the contract and gave him the deposit..the .full 10%....(not a generic...in case I change my mind amount of $500) heard a lot of people complaining...they had been thinking about it when it was 85.000, now they were disgusted at the extra 30,000.....but still thinking about it...
from that day and for the next 2 years, I got the bug...all those cheap little places for sale....I ended up buying 10 over a 2 year period...
the media was still banging on about the tech wreck....the GST which had come in, in 2000 and everything else....the media thought property was too high, had peaked in 2000 or something silly......lots of people were nervous and selling .....and selling at ridiculous low prices
I was very busy with all the houses, getting tenants, renovating etc, did not care what the prices were after I bought them.....about 2003 the media woke up, and started suggesting people look at property as a safe haven after the tech wreck...
I was busy building a townhouse, fighting the bank about the future value, and having problems with the builder....he took 10 months...too busy with so many jobs,,,,and I was in Melb...miles away....
Then early 2004 an agent called he had a buyer for one of my props, if I was interested...well I said no..but what sort of money were they offering ???
(the house was not for sale...but agents were short of houses, so they door knocked looking for sellers) well they were offering 3 times the cost price....
so I said yes....
I met a lot of people in those 3 years, all property buyers, all having a ball, we could not believe how cheap the houses were....mostly since the media had given property a drumming about being overpriced......
and we laughed when the media finally woke up, and suggested that it was a good time to buy property...by the time the media woke up, it was too late,
our props had tripled in value....and we sold some of them.....
very similar to whats been happening for the past 6 months......the media banging on about high prices, screaming about a decline of less than 1%, in the meantime....people are out there snapping up the bargains.....
oh and the media focus on the property prices out weighs their focus on the share market slump of between 50-90%
suddenly, one Sunday night in July 2000 she called, saw them putting up the for sale sign....Monday morning I called the agent....asking price 115,000...same house nothing changed...except the price was now 30,000 more than 4 months earlier.....daughter wanted me to buy it Mon morning....I said I had to have a look inside first,,,,so at the first open house the following Sat...35-40 people were there at the opening, I sqeezed around , had a quick look...and told the agent I would take it....
that was 5 minutes after the opening...I signed the contract and gave him the deposit..the .full 10%....(not a generic...in case I change my mind amount of $500) heard a lot of people complaining...they had been thinking about it when it was 85.000, now they were disgusted at the extra 30,000.....but still thinking about it...
from that day and for the next 2 years, I got the bug...all those cheap little places for sale....I ended up buying 10 over a 2 year period...
the media was still banging on about the tech wreck....the GST which had come in, in 2000 and everything else....the media thought property was too high, had peaked in 2000 or something silly......lots of people were nervous and selling .....and selling at ridiculous low prices
I was very busy with all the houses, getting tenants, renovating etc, did not care what the prices were after I bought them.....about 2003 the media woke up, and started suggesting people look at property as a safe haven after the tech wreck...
I was busy building a townhouse, fighting the bank about the future value, and having problems with the builder....he took 10 months...too busy with so many jobs,,,,and I was in Melb...miles away....
Then early 2004 an agent called he had a buyer for one of my props, if I was interested...well I said no..but what sort of money were they offering ???
(the house was not for sale...but agents were short of houses, so they door knocked looking for sellers) well they were offering 3 times the cost price....
so I said yes....
I met a lot of people in those 3 years, all property buyers, all having a ball, we could not believe how cheap the houses were....mostly since the media had given property a drumming about being overpriced......
and we laughed when the media finally woke up, and suggested that it was a good time to buy property...by the time the media woke up, it was too late,
our props had tripled in value....and we sold some of them.....
very similar to whats been happening for the past 6 months......the media banging on about high prices, screaming about a decline of less than 1%, in the meantime....people are out there snapping up the bargains.....
oh and the media focus on the property prices out weighs their focus on the share market slump of between 50-90%
message for Trevor.....
compared to the problems the bigger cities are experiencing...just wonder about the Townsville scene......???? seems way overpriced, expecially after reading this article....you can probably drop the offer by another 100k's
................................
16,623 apartments and townhouses...abandoned or halted.....
here's an extract
.....................................................................................
In Sydney's North Shore, along the Pacific Highway between Chatswood and Hornsby, there are estimated to be between 200 and 500 apartments unsold, including many that are unfinished.
Developers overpaid for the sites in the boom and apartments are more costly to build than houses at $1400 a square metre versus $900/sqm for a house so they are unable to lower the prices in order to pay back their debts.
Industry insiders say part of the problem is that many thought the apartment boom that began up to 10 years ago was here to stay.
.....................................................................................................
scary stuff...you buy off the plan...some are sold...the rest unfinished shells...left and abandoned.....and you are left with either a unit or a deposit..
***
interesting ...apartments cost 1400 per square metre...compared to houses at 900.....yet majority of units sell for a lower price than a house.....
these must be luxury style units then....
bit different from fhb range of about 600 square metre
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25149947-5013951,00.html
compared to the problems the bigger cities are experiencing...just wonder about the Townsville scene......???? seems way overpriced, expecially after reading this article....you can probably drop the offer by another 100k's
................................
16,623 apartments and townhouses...abandoned or halted.....
here's an extract
.....................................................................................
In Sydney's North Shore, along the Pacific Highway between Chatswood and Hornsby, there are estimated to be between 200 and 500 apartments unsold, including many that are unfinished.
Developers overpaid for the sites in the boom and apartments are more costly to build than houses at $1400 a square metre versus $900/sqm for a house so they are unable to lower the prices in order to pay back their debts.
Industry insiders say part of the problem is that many thought the apartment boom that began up to 10 years ago was here to stay.
.....................................................................................................
scary stuff...you buy off the plan...some are sold...the rest unfinished shells...left and abandoned.....and you are left with either a unit or a deposit..
***
interesting ...apartments cost 1400 per square metre...compared to houses at 900.....yet majority of units sell for a lower price than a house.....
these must be luxury style units then....
bit different from fhb range of about 600 square metre
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25149947-5013951,00.html
some comparisons to think about regarding Townsville....
population of about 150,000....properties for sale on realestate site...1742, properties listed in the last 7 days...83
Albury/ Wodonga...population about 140,000....properties for sale 200
listed last 7 days...less than 10....
about 8.5 times as many for sale in Townsville and similar 8.5 times listed past week....
wow... 32 sold last week Townsville.....
Albury...7....but it only averages a sale a day for the past 9 months....
Townsville sales 200 since 23.1.09
Albury sales 180 since 9.09.08.....takes 6 months here to achieve the same results...
the RE agents must love the place with such a huge turnover.....
unbelievable........
.... a moving population.....this from wikipedia
.................................
Demographics
For a full list of suburbs in Townsville and the surrounding region see Suburbs of Townsville
Townsville has a younger population than the Australian and Queensland averages. The city has traditionally experienced a high turnover of people, with the army base and government services bringing in many short to medium term workers. The region has also become popular with mine workers on fly in/fly out contracts. Major improvements to the lifestyle infrastructure over the past 10 years has led to a higher living standard, and consequently the population boom.[citation needed] In 2005-06, the Townsville Statistical District grew at just over 3 per cent and was the fifth fastest growing district or division in Australia.[25]
The annual average rate of change in population in the Townsville/Thuringowa between 30 June 2000 and 30 June 2005 was 2.5%, compared with 2.2% for Queensland.[23]
population of about 150,000....properties for sale on realestate site...1742, properties listed in the last 7 days...83
Albury/ Wodonga...population about 140,000....properties for sale 200
listed last 7 days...less than 10....
about 8.5 times as many for sale in Townsville and similar 8.5 times listed past week....
wow... 32 sold last week Townsville.....
Albury...7....but it only averages a sale a day for the past 9 months....
Townsville sales 200 since 23.1.09
Albury sales 180 since 9.09.08.....takes 6 months here to achieve the same results...
the RE agents must love the place with such a huge turnover.....
unbelievable........
.... a moving population.....this from wikipedia
.................................
Demographics
For a full list of suburbs in Townsville and the surrounding region see Suburbs of Townsville
Townsville has a younger population than the Australian and Queensland averages. The city has traditionally experienced a high turnover of people, with the army base and government services bringing in many short to medium term workers. The region has also become popular with mine workers on fly in/fly out contracts. Major improvements to the lifestyle infrastructure over the past 10 years has led to a higher living standard, and consequently the population boom.[citation needed] In 2005-06, the Townsville Statistical District grew at just over 3 per cent and was the fifth fastest growing district or division in Australia.[25]
The annual average rate of change in population in the Townsville/Thuringowa between 30 June 2000 and 30 June 2005 was 2.5%, compared with 2.2% for Queensland.[23]
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