House prices to keep rising for years

[numbercruncher]

Or those that purchased houses they could ill afford using Div's as part of the servicability equation.

Share market takes a hammering, sevicability say bye bye's

Dave

This is a funny thread to browse through ...... so many of the old permabulls have vanished .....

Nearly reunion time, what happened to them all ? Global economic crisis (gec) or Retired to the Bahamas (rttb) ?

 

[ROE]

I heard they all retire rich and no longer need to work like normal people...they capitalise their interest and living off their equity

 

[explod]

I heard they all retire rich and no longer need to work like normal people...they capitalise their interest and living off their equity

Not sure, but down this way they have been trying to sell their holiday mansions on the coast from Mornington to Portsea but nothing doing so now they are selling their primary residences back in the city at up to 20% lower than anticipated. Sumptin about margin calls I heard.

Just thought I would follow you over from that doom property thread.

 

[robots]

hello,

yeah good move explod, post here with the kings man

http://www.theage.com.au/national/melbourne-defies-new-homes-crash-20081204-6rpe.html

all this supply and St Kilda still pumping 14.7% for Sept08,

yeah yeah, i know it takes times and I have to wait it always goes down after shonk market issues (over 3yrs strong now man)

what a day here in Melbourne, 30 degrees, chapel st pumping

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

+14.7% Sept08 for St Kilda

I think I worked out what this means !


Its the increase in crime in St Kilda this quarter , prostituion , drug deals, shooting etc ? So much "underbelly" action down your way Robi .... next youll need to carry a 9mm just to get a coffee !

 

[arco]

I picked this up somewhere recently, but I've lost the link

These are the private debt figures from the RBA
$670 Billion in Owner occupied Housing debt
$310 Billion in Investor property debt.

 

[robots]

This is a funny thread to browse through ...... so many of the old permabulls have vanished .....

Nearly reunion time, what happened to them all ? Global economic crisis (gec) or Retired to the Bahamas (rttb) ?

hello,

yeah remember Realist who owned every blue chip share known to mankind and continually spoke of the virtue's of shares over property,

gone along with all those funds in the blue chips

what a day

thankyou
robots

 

[robots]

hello,

http://news.theage.com.au/national/banks-told-to-save-construction-jobs-20081205-6scr.html

even after 9 mths of falls for construction sector we still have the humble builder worker in the top 10 of most in-demand professions,

you might have to come out of retirement Explod, fill up those tins again down at Mornington there

i have friend still going strong at 71 in the building industry, how old's Rupert Murdoch?

thankyou
robots

 

[joeyr46]

Very good video - reinforces the main view of this thread.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/bubbles

That was worth watching explains things very well
Thanks for that

 

[Beej]

That was worth watching explains things very well
Thanks for that

Some cautionary tales in there for sure, but by no means gospel - there are plenty of counter examples and the "bubble patterns" do not always play out as described in the examples used.......and the whole no increase in "real" incomes in inflation adjusted terms argument - well that might the case in the US? but in AU there have been SIGNIFICANT increases in real family incomes over the past 8 years (both single average earnings and combined family earnings), so maybe that's why we are different to them?? Also, we haven't got the massive "mis-allocation" of capital into over-building etc that the presentation suggests occurred in the US.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

http://news.theage.com.au/national/banks-told-to-save-construction-jobs-20081205-6scr.html

even after 9 mths of falls for construction sector we still have the humble builder worker in the top 10 of most in-demand professions,

you might have to come out of retirement Explod, fill up those tins again down at Mornington there

i have friend still going strong at 71 in the building industry, how old's Rupert Murdoch?

thankyou
robots

That article was about your industry grovelling for mercy ...... recession giving you guys a walloping already and its going to get worse for sure ..... should see how many projects are getting cancelled in sunny queensland, unreal ....

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, building and construction sector employs around one million people or nine per cent of the workforce.

wow talk about oversupply bubble! Might get my dunny fixed for less than 200 bucks an hour ?

 

[YChromozome]

Rents tumble in inner Sydney

Looks like rents in some parts of the lower north shore are down 15.9% in only three months. Plenty of double digit falls in other parts.

Hope Robots can continue to up the rent and he doesn't price himself out of the market.

 

[Beej]

Record price paid ($20M) for park-side penthouse apartment in Sydney:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/penthouse-goes-for-20m/2008/12/05/1228257317754.html

Cheers,

Beej

 

[wayneL]

Some cautionary tales in there for sure, but by no means gospel - there are plenty of counter examples and the "bubble patterns" do not always play out as described in the examples used.......and the whole no increase in "real" incomes in inflation adjusted terms argument - well that might the case in the US? but in AU there have been SIGNIFICANT increases in real family incomes over the past 8 years (both single average earnings and combined family earnings), so maybe that's why we are different to them?? Also, we haven't got the massive "mis-allocation" of capital into over-building etc that the presentation suggests occurred in the US.

Cheers,

Beej

Those videos are straight out of the Austrian School book of Common Prayer, as the only economic model capable of prediction, it is gospel.

Australian mis-allocation of capital is in slightly different sectors that the US, but no less mis-allocated.

Classic Austrian mal-investment.

 

[numbercruncher]

Record price paid ($20M) for park-side penthouse apartment in Sydney:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/penthouse-goes-for-20m/2008/12/05/1228257317754.html

Cheers,

Beej

sniff .... sniff .... sniff ....

yup that smells like desperation ...

 

[Dowdy]

Very good video - reinforces the main view of this thread.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/bubbles

That was a great video. Too bad the housing bulls choose to ignore it

 

[ROE]

That was a great video. Too bad the housing bulls choose to ignore it

This time it's different though buy now before you are price out FOREVER

 

[Beej]

This time it's different though

Somewhat ironically, it's actually YOU and your ilk that are arguing that "this time it's different". "Peak oil!!!" "Peak debt!!!" "Fiat monetary system is a sham!!!" "The sky is falling!!!!" etc etc blah blah.

The rest of us are merely predicting a normal housing cycle downturn (as has hapenned many times before - early 70s, late 80s, and even as recently as 2001), followed by a normal recovery.

Beej

 

[ROE]

Somewhat ironically, it's actually YOU and your ilk that are arguing that "this time it's different". "Peak oil!!!" "Peak debt!!!" "Fiat monetary system is a sham!!!" "The sky is falling!!!!" etc etc blah blah.

The rest of us are merely predicting a normal housing cycle downturn (as has hapenned many times before - early 70s, late 80s, and even as recently as 2001), followed by a normal recovery.

Beej

so we move from house price not crashing to cycle down turn now
this time it's definitely different
what is a cycle down turn? 5% ? 20% 50% ?

There is a stock market crash but no stock market down turn right ?

 

[Beej]

so we move from house price not crashing to cycle down turn now
this time it's definitely different
what is a cycle down turn? 5% ? 20% 50% ?

There is a stock market crash but no stock market down turn right ?

Yeah whatever -keep back pedalling and building those straw men! My views and outlook for the market have been clearly explained numerous times in this and the other thread and have been consistent.