House prices to keep rising for years

[xoa]

This is exactly what many have of us have been pointing out on this and the other house price thread. There opposing fundamentals here stopping the market *currently* from moving too strongly either up or down.

I see. So when approvals fall, that's good for house prices. And when they rise, that's good for house prices too. Everything's good for house prices if you're a permabull I guess.

 

[Gspot]

Maybe it will all come down to where you live.
Here in West Oz, it's different from US, UK and even Sydney. Because we have $96 Billion worth of projects signed, with another $90 billion on the table. Now thats hands on work, meaning alot more labour needed in an already stretched market. So that equals immigration, which equals more homes for these families arriving each week.
Perth has dropped, due to world climate, however rents are still high, and with a couple more cuts to interest rates, (thanks to the almighty building industry)things will change for the better in the the Mighty West Coast(Eagles). IMO

 

[singlefished]

Hello,

Great news everybody - Lehman Brothers, one of the world oldest investment banks, has filed for bankruptcy!!!! Whoop, Whoop, It's all good!!!

Australian housing still going to boom though regardless of the global financial turmoil!!! Yes it is!!! Really!!! It's all going to be great and rents will keep rising to boot!!!

Don't worry about the tight global financial system leading to less borrowing and less spending.... don't worry about the impending global slowdown which will hardly be noticed by our resiliant resource fuelled economy.... Don't worry if the Chinese start cutting back on iron ore consumption... don't worry if unemployment rises and things do start winding back... don't worry that the back-side has fell off the Aussie $$$ in the last few weeks...

I fail to see why some people just can't look beyond the limits of their own garden fence to see what the neighbours are doing. Asia (which DOES include China) is starting to look very average, Europe and the US are waaaaaay more than half way down the tubes.... Who's left that's in a position to help support our booming economy? Ourselves? The oil rich Arabs? The eskimos?

Do people really believe that the Australian economy will be left unscathed whilst everybody else is doing their best to sort out their own troubles by reigning in borrowing and spending? And if the Australian economy does start to teeter as a consequence, would house prices be able to remain at their current levels or would they be expected to fall????

What happens to all the "Immigration supporting the housing sector" when the majority of immigrants are here on temporary 457 visas and are now taking a hit on their take home pay (take home pay being what they send out the country - at 15% premium than what they were sending it a few short weeks ago when our dollar was a lot stronger) A lot of these immigrants WILL dissapear if it no longer becomes financially attractive to stay here when a downturn occurs.... A lot of people are only here for the $$$$ and living the great Aussie dream is not really on the radar for them.

 

[Gspot]

I'm sure RIO and BHP have done their homework, and believe they wouldn't be spending billions upgrading their Iron Ore projects if prices were diving.
China and India are 35% of the world population, China is building for their own people, not US. And if the world does go into a recession, cheap china made products will be all Americans can afford.

 

[Beej]

Well well, apart from the record price of $47M for a harbour front mansion, this article also contains a reference to a record price for a Surry Hills terrace, and a Summer Hill house:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/crisis-what-crisis/2008/09/17/1221330929879.html

Even away from the harbour, records are being set, with Surry Hills and Summer Hill showing spring selling season momentum.

On Bourke Street, Surry Hills, a terrace has been sold for a record $2.34 million.

"The neighbouring terrace sold last year for $2.01 million was very similar, so we are very happy with that result in this market," the selling agent, David Servi, said. There were eight registered bidders, with three seeking to upgrade from elsewhere in Surry Hills.

A five-bedroom 1880s Summer Hill residence has been sold for a record $2.03 million, bettering the suburb's record of $1.8 million. The auctioneer Nicholas Lyell accepted bids that progressed $90,000 above its reserve price. It last sold for $650,000 in 1997.

This mirrors my experience at a couple of auctions I have attended in the last few weekends as well. All the action there seemed to be in the ~$1M range though, rather than the $2M+ range where there is simply a lack of property for sale on the north shore.

I must say I am surprised people are prepared to bid prices up like that in a market like this - but there you go, in some area's it IS happening.... It could be the effect of tightening supply due to house owners reading forums like this pulling their heads in a bit, coupled with the pent up buyer demand buoyed by the recent interest rate cut?

Cheers,

Beej

 

[pepperoni]

Well well, apart from the record price of $47M for a harbour front mansion, this article also contains a reference to a record price for a Surry Hills terrace, and a Summer Hill house:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/crisis-what-crisis/2008/09/17/1221330929879.html



This mirrors my experience at a couple of auctions I have attended in the last few weekends as well. All the action there seemed to be in the ~$1M range though, rather than the $2M+ range where there is simply a lack of property for sale on the north shore.

I must say I am surprised people are prepared to bid prices up like that in a market like this - but there you go, in some area's it IS happening.... It could be the effect of tightening supply due to house owners reading forums like this pulling their heads in a bit, coupled with the pent up buyer demand buoyed by the recent interest rate cut?

Cheers,

Beej

If you find a reported price genuinely surprising and you havent witnessed the fall of the hammer then there is a *chance* its bogus.

Alot of desparate RE guys out there with alot of time on their hands trying to concoct some good news.

I have seen at least 1 "$5m+" sale reported this year that strangely didnt go through. The house still has the sign up and the original owner still lives there.

I saw a sale a week back reported on edgecliff Bvd Collaroy for $2m over market value of any record price in the area. No evidence of an actual sale yet though.

I pretty much ignore it and focus on fundamentals and verified sales

 

[robots]

hello Beej,

isnt it amazing,

if it comes from someone with a blog (debtwatch, whocrashedtheeconomy etc etc) its gospel,

if it comes out of the RE industry its all lies and lies,

keep up the work beej, i know i am happy with a "few" percentage points decrease this year compared with the shock exchange at 30%,

and when the interest rates start coming down in a couple of weeks it will propel us into utopia again and the specuvestor renter's will be sipping soup again

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

hello Beej,

isnt it amazing,

if it comes from someone with a blog (debtwatch, whocrashedtheeconomy etc etc) its gospel,

if it comes out of the RE industry its all lies and lies, Yes that's mostly true, talk to Neil Jenman about that

keep up the work beej, i know i am happy with a "few" percentage points decrease this year compared with the shock exchange at 30%,

and when the interest rates start coming down in a couple of weeks it will propel us into utopia again and the specuvestor renter's will be sipping soup again

thankyou
robots

Why are you posting on a stock site then?

 

[robots]

hello,

who is Neil Jenman?

thankyou
robots

 

[pepperoni]

God this is like watching a man soil himself over and over. Im starting to wonder why we bother.

Or are robots' substanceless troll posts really what people want from this thread.

 

[robots]

hello,

of course people want it token multimillionaire, look at the number of views bro,

massive, they come for the fun, the honesty, the truth

a man of the people, the people's poet

thankyou very much
robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

of course people want it token multimillionaire, look at the number of views bro,

massive, they come for the fun, the honesty, the truth

a man of the people, the people's poet

thankyou very much
robots

Poet?

Poets usually know something about capitalization and punctuation.

Court jester maybe.

 

[robots]

hello,

i have been helping you out token multimillionaire on you're other little baby as well, pumping the views up to almost 20k

not long ago it was around 5k,

i will bring the people

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

i have been helping you out token multimillionaire on you're other little baby as well, pumping the views up to almost 20k

not long ago it was around 5k,

i will bring the people

thankyou
robots

Ever thought about building a baseball diamond in a corn field in the middle of nowhere?

 

[singlefished]

hello,

of course people want it token multimillionaire, look at the number of views bro,

massive, they come for the fun, the honesty, the truth

a man of the people, the people's poet

thankyou very much
robots

I'd rather not read it....

I come to this thread and enjoy posts from the likes of Beej who articulate their arguments well and constructively debate the issues arising from the current market conditions. A little bit of thought before posting goes a long way and encourages active participation regardless where you stand on the issue.

I find it irritating to read posts proclaming that it's all going to boom because interest rates are on the way down. Many of these posts appear to be unsubstantiated opinion without the clarity of justification.

I'd like to see a bit more maturity and discussion on this thread rather than the "told you so.... nah-nah-nah-na-na-nahhhhh" style one liners. This is what I expect from my 8 year old, not the active participants of a property prices discussion thread.

And, on a final note.... caught this article at lunchtime on news.com

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24360232-5013951,00.html

Cheers,
Scotty....

 

[pepperoni]

Very good video - reinforces the main view of this thread.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/bubbles

 

[robots]

hello,

but lads, this has been going on for 3 yrs now,

the great writings at "house prices to stagnate for years" i believe has even just celebrated its 3rd anniversary, yes third anniversary

no access on that one because its just too embarrassing, and once again the views where enormous,

i would like to thank the hard working contributors of our time:

beej, kathmandu, robots, tech and special word out to a few colorful characters numbercruncher, kimosabi, realist, token multimillioniare

have a great day

thankyou
robots

 

[dubiousinfo]

News article out yesterday.

AUSTRALIA'S residential market continues to be sluggish with high interest rates and a lack of properties contributing to a fall in new homes sales in August, a survey has found.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) survey found new home sales fell 1.3 per cent in August, following a 7.2 per cent decline the previous month.

Sales of detached houses fell 2.4 per cent in August, the seventh monthly fall in a row.

 

[robots]

hello,

yes dubious this is fantastic news, we in an era where not much is going to be "built" and this probably continue for some time,

its clear by this forum that "investors" dont want investment property so why would someone build one,

this may be one reason why the IMF (yes thats right the IMF) has come out and said prices "may" drop by 5-10%, thats right 5-10%

mr keen once again not looking too bright, the contributers here at ASF once again coming up trumps well done and thanks to beej, kathmandu, asx gorilla, robots, technotronic,

http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5042757/australian-govt-pump-billion-mortgage-market

looks as though rudd747 is going to help out as well

3 years going on strong brother

thankyou
robots

 

[robots]

hello,

apologies to TysonBoss1, you in for the cause

thankyou
robots