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House prices to keep falling for years

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Thats profound , can you follow it up with something more specific like where to put say $500k cash ?
 

Gee, why don't we all just pop out the back and shoot ourselves and get it all over with......

Meanwhile back in the real world, away from gloomy, pessimistic internet forums frequented by conspiracy theorists and other gloomy folk (who in the past with no internet fortunately had no easy way to share and snowball their whacky idea's so easily!), life goes on, and actually, is pretty good! I only need to see my newest little baby son smile and giggle for the first time to be reminded of that!

Cheers,

Beej
 
Here is a chance to make 50K + . There are 80 houses going up for auction at North Lakes here in QLD with $50 K off the price.
12 Mths ago people were sleeping in their cars so they could buy a block of land as soon as the agent's office opened.
So those who think RE doubles every 7 years buy now, here are houses 3-4 years old not sure how the double every 7 works as it didn't work for these Brainwashed Victims.
And more good news store owners are walking out of their shops in the new Westfield centre also buy a few houses and open a business were the workers have never had it so good.
 

That sounds like a story from 1929 ...........
 


Congrats on the new son Beej ! awesome time for you and your family !


You do bemuse me though, we are stairing down the barrel of the biggest financial crisis since the great depression yet you dismiss peoples commentary of this as fabricated pessimism ?

Very bizarre, almost like ostrich head in the sand behaviour ...... potentially a dangerous thing !!

Who knows maybe Central banks and Governments of the world will unite and save the day ( cough cough ) ...... but acting like this whole thing is a figment of the bears/realists imagination is frankly really bizarre !!

Cheers and G/luck.
 
numbercruncher said:
Congrats on the new son Beej ! awesome time for you and your family !
Click to expand...

Congrats Beej, I think you have just realised whats important and that the global financial crises doesnt even rank, well done and welcome to the REAL world, enjoy the ride (I assume this is your first?}
Big cigar from me to you
 


I'm sure the balance sheets of all trouble companies in the world would be fixed overnight if we could just rid the internet of all those evil conspiracy theorists. Then we could just concentrate on getting on with the business of making renters feels like investment morons who are missing the property boat.
 
Hey all, thought this point may interest, a friend of mine who has a reasonably succesfull retail store in a smaller centre in melbourne is planning to just hand back the keys when lease is up mid next year, he can't see the logic of signing a new lease with 20 % rent increase and a mandatory re-fit out of store [approx - 50k-70k] when economy looks so terrible.

He's glad he is out of debt and comfortable with his own home and a rental property.

Maybe considering the doom and gloom he should approach centre management and barter a better deal? Maybe all store owners should stick it up the centres, I'm sure they would dread losing out on rent incomes altogether if owners can't see a light at the end of the tunnel.
 
Whats with the drama over IR coming down 3% mid next year?
Do they know how bad things are i reckon they will hit 3%very early next year starting with another 1% in December.
 

Congrats for your newborn, I'm looking forward to it one day too.

Now back to the point, there is a difference between a "pessimistist" and a "realist". We are gloomy because we are looking at facts. Facts that lengendary investors and high profile people such as Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers, Alan Greenspan, Marc Faber, Nourine Robinin, and alike are protraying. They all agree the world is facing one in a hundred year event and this is no where near from over. (though they do have a bullish side, but definitely not in real estate in this regards)

Most of us, at least I am anyway, are basing our opinions BASED ON THEIR WISDOM and their VIEWS.

So do you think they are wrong in this regards?

I certainly don't have the experiences/knowledge to judge them wrong since some of them are billionare investors who have been in the business before we were even born. If you believe you know more than they do, and they their "gloomy" predictions are totally unjustified based on your own "limited" observation of the surrounding world, then go ahead and let them know they are wrong and everything is all and well.

Like I said again, step back and look at the bigger picture. Limit reading the media news because they are either overwhelming gloomy or overwhelming cheerleading. Subscribe to those lengendary investors' newsletter/blog/articles and see if they are totally wrong about the state of the world economy.
 
Warren Buffet is still investing billions, and still canvasses any attractive deal that he may find. The "get in the bunker" crowd obviously disagree with this legendary investor, I don't. Are things more difficult now? Yes, but in any crisis there are multiple opportunities to exploit.
 

So how much exactly would you be down if you bought GS or GE at the same time he did?

He only got into those deals because of the conditions attached.

And plus, I think he is just ramping, because his performance of late has been rather ordinary.
 
Not exactly a perfect quantitative argument, though I subscribe to daily Domain.com.au emails, filtered to Inner West Sydney, houses up to $550k.

Not much in there until a few weeks ago, now getting more and more daily. Two bedders which you wouldnt have picked up for under $650k are now appearing either in the email for auction (under $550k filtered) or priced at under $550k, some a lot less.

Definately good news for us FHB, and definately a sign that the inner sity burbs of Sydney are feeling the downturn. Then again, inner west Sydney has probably increased in price more than most other suburbs, so about time they came back to sensible-land. I feel this is just the start too. Thing is, is now the time to put in some silly offers, whilst panic is spreading?
 

There are always opportunities, identifying them and then taking advantage of them is the hard part.

IMO you can not compare the normal investor to WB, if I was able to get the sort of deals WB can get I too would be jumping in but I can't, he doesn't invest in these companies at the prices or the terms that we do, his risk is greatly reduced.
 
Hi all,

As someone who is always comparing financial merits of buying a PPOR or renting, I have put together a financial comparison model (attached) with varying factors (such as capital gains, costs of purchasing, weekly rent amount, purchase price, renting subsidies, borrowing/saving rates, tax rates etc).

I plan to use this model on an ongoing basis to tell me when it is cost effective to buy rather than rent.

All of these factors can be adjusted to suit one's individual situation. I would appreciate it if any of you could proof test this and point out any ommissions or things I should consider.

Please note the following:

1. Fill in green areas only

2. Duties tables are from Sydney (as I thought this is where most of you live)

3. Model calculates 'Net Savings rate' as 'Borrowing rate less 2% x Marginal Tax rate)

4. For ease of comparison, I have ignored any deposits. The only difference this makes is that the 2% difference between savings and borrowing rates on the deposit i.e minimal

5. Interest rates vary over the term, and so do capital gains. Therefore this should be adjusted on an ongoing basis.

6. It is possible that tax on savings can cross 2 tax bands. Unfortunately I cannot expand this model to include other income due to being restricted by 293KB filesize limit (It has been a chore just to reduce this file size as it is!)

7. Once again, this a PPOR vs Rent comparison. I am aware that there are other potential benefits and risks from be leveraged on an investment property. Maybe I will get to comparing these in the future.

ANY feedback, faults found and tips would be appreciated. Thanks
 

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Third time lucky?


Oh well, here goes again with the new and improved version:
 

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