Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep falling for years

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numbercruncher said:
Hows the RE boom going folks ? as good as your Super funds ?

I see realists like Prof Steve Keen are now getting picked up by the main stream press .....

Interesting times !! Been far to busy to keep up with this thread , any conclusions yet ?

Cheers ...

:)
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Keen - a "realist" you call him?? More like an "opportunist"! Ie, Just another boring acedemic who has been banging on with the same old story and predictions for a decade. Finally, doom and gloom is selling again, so now that anyone is actually remotely interested in listening there he is milking the media exposure for all it's worth! Makes for great acedemic career qdos.... especially when you are stuck out at UWS.......

Of course generally speaking we all know acedemic economists are sooo good at predicting the future, and the behaviour of markets in particular...... :)

Oh and PS - no conclusions yet that can be backed up by solid ABS or REI price data etc. Many eagerly awaiting to see if their house price crash dreams will be fullfilled though! :)

Cheers,

Beej
 
Beej said:
Oh and PS - no conclusions yet that can be backed up by solid ABS or REI price data etc. Many eagerly awaiting to see if their house price crash dreams will be fullfilled though! :)
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Official stats are nice but in the end it comes down to what you can negotiate when you buy.

I know of a number of good houses in the best areas i can get for a song so i have my answer.

Going forward Im more interested in market conditions like credit growth, credit availability, and rates/affordability.

I just bought a new car for an absurdly low price last month ... official prices didnt change but ability to negotiate for those with the skill is unprecedented.
 
pepperoni said:
Official stats are nice but in the end it comes down to what you can negotiate when you buy.

I know of a number of good houses in the best areas i can get for a song so i have my answer.

Going forward Im more interested in market conditions like credit growth, credit availability, and rates/affordability.

I just bought a new car for an absurdly low price last month ... official prices didnt change but ability to negotiate for those with the skill is unprecedented.
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No question there are some bargains around - I've been looking at a couple of good places in good area's that can be had for a good 10-15% less than they would have sold for last year, but that still only puts them back at 2005/2006 prices. There are still plenty of places selling though if priced correctly (examples posted here and in the other thread). Nothing surprising there though or what I would call a "crash". In fact the conditions right now remind me a great deal of 1990/91, and a little like what happened for about 3-4 months before the olympics and after the GST first came in (2000).

My feeling is the Sydney market in particular is very close to the bottom right now, but it will take a while (2-5 years) before it really moves fast again. We shall see....

Cheers,

Beej
 
House prices will come down just the same as they went up a few % a month.
If we get to depression stage will Rudd et al give out food stamps or go to CentreLink to pick up some loot so every Australian can get our share of the mining boom because there is no other way the average person can get a benefits.
So far ot looks like the USA bail out is going down as there is now a push to bail out commercial sector
 
The shakeout of City boys begins.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...housing-slump-11m-home-repossessed-banks.html

City millionaire is latest victim of housing slump as his £11m home is repossessed by banks

By Daily Mail Reporter

Last updated at 4:35 PM on 21st September 2008

A city financier has become the latest victim of the housing slump after the £11m house he bought as a property speculator was seized in what is thought to be Britain’s biggest-ever house repossession.

Robert Bonnier, 38, a former investment banker who was once fined for share manipulation, bought the six-bedroom house in Holland Park, west London, last year.

He set up a Jersey-registered company called Cristal Holdings, which paid £11,678,000, £3m more than the original asking price according to a report in The Sunday Times.....
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pepperoni said:
Official stats are nice but in the end it comes down to what you can negotiate when you buy.

I know of a number of good houses in the best areas i can get for a song so i have my answer.

Going forward Im more interested in market conditions like credit growth, credit availability, and rates/affordability.

I just bought a new car for an absurdly low price last month ... official prices didnt change but ability to negotiate for those with the skill is unprecedented.
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You know you already over paid :) for a new car, it's a bad investment from the start so you already over pay j/k

but I do like my new car as well, it's indefensible investment but you got to spend at some stage :D

and I enjoy the entertainment in this thread with punch throw here and there .. I like to stay on the side line and watch with this whole property vs shares vs owning vs renting :)
 
Beej said:
No question there are some bargains around - I've been looking at a couple of good places in good area's that can be had for a good 10-15% less than they would have sold for last year, but that still only puts them back at 2005/2006 prices.
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15% on a 2m property is $300 - alot to be saved by waiting out the last 6 months!

And Im sticking with my "property prices back to 2002 levels" position. In my areas the HUGE majority of prices are below the peaks of the boom, although admittedly there are the odd exceptions.
 
Temjin said:
What are your view on this, guys?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24345079-30538,00.html

It looks like Suncorp is too heavily exposed in the property market through its loan book. The article say if they couldn't recover 2% of those loan, their whole year profit would be wiped out. I wondered what it takes to bankrupt the company???!!
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I don't know.
Temjin said:
I'm worried about my deposits now....
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Then move to one of the big four.
 
Temjin said:
What are your view on this, guys?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24345079-30538,00.html

It looks like Suncorp is too heavily exposed in the property market through its loan book. The article say if they couldn't recover 2% of those loan, their whole year profit would be wiped out. I wondered what it takes to bankrupt the company???!! I'm worried about my deposits now....
Click to expand...

Play the probability game, if Suncorp goes most banks will be in trouble as well and without seeing the other banks balance sheet you just rely on someone opinion to dictate your decision :D

you can see the effect of the US already, when one goes belly up it not just one it will be a string of other, who's next? who know.

If moving to the big 4 make you feel safer, then do it otherwise it just another day in the market with news fly left and right.
 
Temjin said:
What are your view on this, guys?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24345079-30538,00.html

It looks like Suncorp is too heavily exposed in the property market through its loan book. The article say if they couldn't recover 2% of those loan, their whole year profit would be wiped out. I wondered what it takes to bankrupt the company???!! I'm worried about my deposits now....
Click to expand...

Interesting read, sounds like Mulcahy took Chuck Prince's line "As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance" a little too far. Seems he kept dancing after the music stopped.
 
hello,

hows that, the colonel has bought into an investment bank

wacked 6 bil on the table for Goldman, great news

up up and away

thankyou
robots
 
IMF warns Australia on Interest rates.. Not too good for the old investors if interest rates don't plummet back under 7%

p.s. I think the IMF is a little more influential on the RBA than a few overborrowed home-owners.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...ting-interest-rates-20080924-4nh6.html?page=2

IMF warns against cutting interest rates

Peter Martin
September 25, 2008

THE International Monetary Fund has cast doubt on the wisdom of next month's expected interest rate cut, warning that Australia may soon need to increase rates.

The assessment comes in a generally positive report on the Australian economy released as the Reserve Bank struggles to keep Australia's foreign exchange market working.

The bank late yesterday announced plans to auction $US10 billion ($A11.9 billion) of American currency in order to stop the so-called forward foreign exchange market from seizing up.

The market stopped working for some hours last week and is under pressure as the end of the quarter approaches and Australian companies try to roll over foreign currency swap contracts. The Reserve has injected into the market several billion US dollars from its own reserves in the past week. The $US10 billion advanced to it from the US Federal Reserve will enable it to continue to keep the market open.

It will be auctioned tomorrow and the outcome announced on Monday. The Australian auction plus others announced yesterday and those announced last week will take the total the US has injected into offshore markets to $US210 billion.

The IMF report expresses doubt about whether Australia's economic growth will slow enough to contain inflation, saying the "balance of risk to growth lies on the upside, stemming from an extraordinary jump in commodity prices".

It concludes that a portion of the boost to Australia's terms of trade is likely to be permanent, lifting the Australian dollar above its long-term average and putting pressure on inflation.

It recommends that "monetary policy be tightened quickly if leading indicators suggest that domestic demand will not slow as expected or the outlook for inflation deteriorates".

In New York, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd welcomed the IMF's assessment, saying it had "delivered a very strong, positive report card on Australia, and on the robustness of our regulators, the strength of our banks, and our ability to see our way through this global economic downturn".

Mr Rudd emerged from a discussion with investment bankers to declare that "Australia's main banks are seen to be strong, and are robust also in the marketplace".

Mr Rudd appealed to Republican and Democrat members of Congress to deal quickly with the US Treasury's proposed $US700 billion bank bail-out.

Media magnate Rupert Murdoch spent an hour with Mr Rudd at the residence of the Australian ambassador to the UN. He told reporters he thought the US financial system would get through its crisis if the bail-out passed quickly, but it was "in for a hard time".

Although released yesterday, the IMF report was finalised in August, before the September rate cut and before the latest turbulence on world financial markets. An update this month concedes the Australian economy is now slowing but maintains that it may still be necessary for the Reserve Bank to adjust interest rates in order to contain inflation.
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http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...-on-edge/2008/09/25/1222217430693.html?page=2

Reminds me of all the folk talking a while back about how we are light years from US Subprime situation (incl RBA Gov).

Whilst we may not have been lending to crack heads, I dont know anyone that has sought a home loan and has not been offered an irresponsible amount of money by ALL banks.

The smart ones didnt take it and the others are toast.

In fact the last mortgage I had on title was $600,000 ... on a PPOR - would be almost $60k a year interest alone now. No thanks old conservative CBA :rolleyes:

And whilst the article only refers to the western suburbs, sub prime issues were similarly limited to those types of areas and yet look how it spread through the whole property market and financial market.

No part of the market is immune from other parts - nothing exist in a vaccum.
 
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