House prices to keep falling for years

[robots]

hello,

wow, asx down 1.4% yes its fairly clear we aint nothing like the US

great words from M.Pascoe on sunrise this morning,

so in future please present facts and figures on australia

thankyou
robots

 

[Gundini]

Sunrise?

So that's where to get all the good info...

 

[robots]

hello,

yes, kochie, mel and the sunrise family

thankyou
robots

 

[pepperoni]

What happened to the mutual boycott? Cant control yourself?

This thread was started to discuss falls and was doing fine without you.

If you want to keep digging your hole do it on the "price rise" thread please.

This thread has a topic and posts like yours are troll jobs ... if you want to debate start a thread for it.

And if you troll on this one Ill call your tactic every time from now on.

 

[robots]

What happened to the mutual boycott? Cant control yourself?

This thread was started to discuss falls and was doing fine without you.

If you want to keep digging your hole do it on the "price rise" thread please.

This thread has a topic and posts like yours are troll jobs ... if you want to debate start a thread for it.

And if you troll on this one Ill call your tactic every time from now on.

hello,

we all troll's token multimillionare, everyone of us

i didnt post anything about a boycott, can you find that post for me? and I will stick to it

thankyou
robots

 

[Gundini]

What happened to the mutual boycott? Cant control yourself?

This thread was started to discuss falls and was doing fine without you.

If you want to keep digging your hole do it on the "price rise" thread please.

This thread has a topic and posts like yours are troll jobs ... if you want to debate start a thread for it.

And if you troll on this one Ill call your tactic every time from now on.

robots has got a stalking issue with you pepperoni it seems. Copying your Tag, Token multimillionaire, and spelling it incorrectly, and I see he has moved into the same suburb lol... At least he keeps on the ball through Mel and Kochie... You have to respect their opinion... ROFLMAO Good Luck!

 

[Temjin]

Well there is still plenty of evidence to the contrary - see last weekend auction clearances, see the *actual* house price statistics. You're proclaiming "victory" in the argument and attacking those of us with differing opinions on the basis of a 2.5% fall in median house prices nationally??? A soft market does not a housing crash make... we are NOT the US and we are NOT the UK. We do not have the credit rationing and over supply issues being faced in the US and the UK. We've had all these arguments before.....

Likewise, there is also plenty of evidence to YOUR contrary too. I look in BOTH side of the arguments and then make my own opinion of the future, you just seem to ignore almost all evidences that is contrary to your believe.

Put it this way, none of us are 100% sure that there will be a housing crash. In fact, NO ONE in the world could predict ANYTHING with 100% accuracy. There is always a "black swan event" that will surprise us all, and the global credit crisis was considered one for many people (except a certain few).

Can you, with ABSOLUTE CERTAINLY, that the housing market WILL NOT stagnate or crash over the next few years? That is, pure 100%!! If you are, then you are making a fool yourself because even Warren Buffet himself will never make such a claim.

The fact remains that Australia is NOT immune to the global credit crisis because banks in Australia DO SOURCE funding from oversea and also LEND money and/or INVEST in "distressed" assets. The fact remains that global funding have become more expensive, it would have an effect on the profitability of the banks in Australia. No one is DENYING, because these are pure facts. The government don't, the mainstream economists don't, the Austrian/independent analysts don't and the banks don't either.

... I don't believe that will happen.

Again, you should think twice before making that statement again. Nothing is certain in life, and this is especially true for investment. It's a person's complete ignorance of black swan events and dismissing random events what make them RICH and also EXTREMELY POOR.


Beej, I know there is a lot at stake for you so I can certainly understand why you are so determined to defend your views. It's definitely difficult to look at this from our perspective because you aren't on the sideline. (i.e. If I had $2 million worth of IP with only 10% of real equity, I would definitely find every bit of evidences to support properties will NEVER crash)

 

[CamKawa]

Beej, I know there is a lot at stake for you so I can certainly understand why you are so determined to defend your views. It's definitely difficult to look at this from our perspective because you aren't on the sideline. (i.e. If I had $2 million worth of IP with only 10% of real equity, I would definitely find every bit of evidences to support properties will NEVER crash)

Isn't that true.

 

[pepperoni]

hello,

we all troll's token multimillionare, everyone of us

i didnt post anything about a boycott, can you find that post for me? and I will stick to it

thankyou
robots

No you are the troll and the liar now ... You posted it and it got deleted for all the guff you stick in every post.

IMO you should stick by your word and leave this thread to those that wish to discuss recent falls.

The mods here are exceptionally nice to you which is fine but I do think its pathetic how you take advantage of it.

Have some respect for them and take the ramping posts to the old ramping thread.

 

[pepperoni]

Likewise, there is also plenty of evidence to YOUR contrary too. I look in BOTH side of the arguments and then make my own opinion of the future, you just seem to ignore almost all evidences that is contrary to your believe.

Put it this way, none of us are 100% sure that there will be a housing crash. In fact, NO ONE in the world could predict ANYTHING with 100% accuracy. There is always a "black swan event" that will surprise us all, and the global credit crisis was considered one for many people (except a certain few).

Can you, with ABSOLUTE CERTAINLY, that the housing market WILL NOT stagnate or crash over the next few years? That is, pure 100%!! If you are, then you are making a fool yourself because even Warren Buffet himself will never make such a claim.

The fact remains that Australia is NOT immune to the global credit crisis because banks in Australia DO SOURCE funding from oversea and also LEND money and/or INVEST in "distressed" assets. The fact remains that global funding have become more expensive, it would have an effect on the profitability of the banks in Australia. No one is DENYING, because these are pure facts. The government don't, the mainstream economists don't, the Austrian/independent analysts don't and the banks don't either.



Again, you should think twice before making that statement again. Nothing is certain in life, and this is especially true for investment. It's a person's complete ignorance of black swan events and dismissing random events what make them RICH and also EXTREMELY POOR.


Beej, I know there is a lot at stake for you so I can certainly understand why you are so determined to defend your views. It's definitely difficult to look at this from our perspective because you aren't on the sideline. (i.e. If I had $2 million worth of IP with only 10% of real equity, I would definitely find every bit of evidences to support properties will NEVER crash)

Amen.

 

[Macquack]

And I didnt give advice to the question, nor should you until you understand:

- for the second time that money does not grow on trees

Well it actually does. Look up "fractional reserve banking".

The problem is that the Wall Street bankers "forgot how" to or "could not be bothered" to plant any new seeds.

Unfortunately, inflation is the rain needed to sprout the next season of money trees.

 

[pepperoni]

Well it actually does. Look up "fractional reserve banking".

The problem is that the Wall Street bankers "forgot how" to or "could not be bothered" to plant any new seeds.

Unfortunately, inflation is the rain needed to sprout the next season of money trees.

It doesnt - I know I planted one

You can grow paper to make dollars notes on trees.

But as you say inflation is the result, so you end up up with the same amount of money, its just represented by more dollar notes. :

As for fractional banking, I think this is the reason for all the failure in the US vs none in aus touch wood.

 

[pepperoni]

Good article.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24355125-5013951,00.html

Interesting points:

- A $300,000 mortgage will cost you $570,000 in interest over 30 years.

- Negative gearing may be a little less attractive with recent tax cuts.

- Rent versus buy

Leanne Wilson of Suncorp says more than a third of Australian households rent -- mostly 35- to 44-year-olds -- and it is definitely still cheaper to rent than buy.

"I looked at blocks of units where there was both a unit for sale and one for rent,'' she says. "I looked at units under $400,000. It worked out that the rent would be about 50 per cent less than taking on a mortgage for 30 years. And of course that doesn't factor in the cost of maintenance of the property and rates.

"Obviously renting also gives you flexibility -- especially when you are in a job where you move around a lot.

"The attraction for a lot of people is also the lifestyle. If they can't afford to buy near the CBD, rent is an affordable option.

"Obviously the downside is actually finding a rental property in the current market environment.''

 

[gfresh]

Yup.. and renting and saving $250/wk gives you somewhere around $13k larger deposit for when the time is right to buy. Even an extra $13k can make a massive difference to the payment terms over 25 years.

Bigger deposit = less debt. No need for this minimum deposit rubbish during a flat market, as prices aren't constantly chased upwards on a monthly basis.

FHB may also be more inclined to pay off credit cards now @ 20% before they enter the market, also improving their free cash each week after mortgage repayments.

Even a flat market would be great for affordability, and long term stability :70:

 

[robots]

Yup.. and renting and saving $250/wk gives you somewhere around $13k larger deposit for when the time is right to buy. Even an extra $13k can make a massive difference to the payment terms over 25 years.

Bigger deposit = less debt. No need for this minimum deposit rubbish during a flat market, as prices aren't constantly chased upwards on a monthly basis.

FHB may also be more inclined to pay off credit cards now @ 20% before they enter the market, also improving their free cash each week after mortgage repayments.

Even a flat market would be great for affordability, and long term stability :70:

hello,

unfortunately for the masses this is clearly not happening and the graphs that many on this thread have posted show the "negative" savings, not many save

and ASF over the next 5,10,20 yrs will be great research into whether what you mention will really occur,

phil ruvthen from ibisworld has been a great campaigner for rent vs buy

thankyou
robots

 

[brty]

Pepper,

Interesting points:

- A $300,000 mortgage will cost you $570,000 in interest over 30 years.

Also interesting is that if you take rents over 30 years and add 4% pa as an inflation factor, you will pay ~$750,000 in rent.(starting at $250 pw)

But they don't wont you to know the whole story.

brty

 

[pepperoni]

Pepper,



Also interesting is that if you take rents over 30 years and add 4% pa as an inflation factor, you will pay ~$750,000 in rent.(starting at $250 pw)

But they don't wont you to know the whole story.

brty

A 300k mortgage costs 2500 a month whereas to rent such a property the property would be less than 1200 a month - WITH NO RATES/MAINT??

This accords with the article less than half price.

I doubt the $700k figure is right but apples for apples you should factor in 30 years compounding on the savings starting at 50%

This is very conservative in my exerience.

Interest on buying the house I live in would be $400,000 pa. Clearly I could never afford to buy it but to rent it I pay $36,000.

 

[pepperoni]

http://business.smh.com.au/business/property-yet-to-bottom-20080917-4ica.html

As Ive said before I think sydney boomed first and is busting first.

This article suggests syd is yet to bottom but will lead next boom starting in about a year???

 

[brty]

Pepper,

Do the math. By year 20 you will be paying $547 pw, up to over $800 by year 30. This with a 4% yearly inflation.

Also with 4% inflation an average income today of $55,000 would be $178,000 in 30 years time, yet the $300,000 borrowed will still be only $300,000 if IO and $0 if P&I.

Most renters tend to spend the money not save it.

brty

 

[gfresh]

You forgot the most important parts Pepper..

Respondents included a who's who of the Australian property universe, including the Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac, ANZ, Macquarie Bank, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Lend Lease, GPT Group, Mirvac, Ernst & Young, Jones Lang LaSalle and CB Richard Ellis.

...

Of significance was that most respondents said yields across all property sectors would increase, not due to rental shortages but because prices would drop as the higher price of risk capital was factored in.

...

Most respondents thought it would be unlikely that residential property would outstrip equity market returns soon, although on a five-year outlook the chances narrowed to about even.

So even the 'experts' agree the market is headed for a downturn and lower prices in the next couple of years.. higher yields, but only due to lower prices..