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It'll get a mention on the news tonight but I don't know that Wayne will go mental over it because they have raised fixed rates not the variable lending rate. Time will tell though.
It'll get a mention on the news tonight but I don't know that Wayne will go mental over it because they have raised fixed rates not the variable lending rate. Time will tell though.What a hoot, if they went bersek at the CBA they will be totally out of control with rage over this, or they'll have to appear so.
I can hardly wait for the news tonight.
BIS Shrapnel property assessment BS
Adam Schwab writes:
Property research company BIS Shrapnel has produced its regular assessment of the prospects for Australia’s residential property market and unsurprisingly, the news from BIS is very positive. The report suggested that Melbourne and Sydney residential property could increase in value by as much as 19% by 2012. Melbourne median house prices are tipped to increase from $425,000 to $507,000, while Sydney medians are forecast to rise from $530,000 to $630,000.
BIS Shrapnel senior project manager, Angie Zigomanis, told media that “we expect rising confidence in the prospects for an economic recovery in 2010, so investors are likely to return in greater numbers, attracted by increased rental returns and low interest rates.”
We are not sure what economic data Ms Zigomanis and BIS have been analyzing, but perhaps they haven’t been keeping too close an eye on the latest moves by Australian banks to raise interest rates in response to increasing wholesale funding costs (and lack of competition). Further, the interest rate yield curve suggests that rates are likely to rise, rather than fall in the coming years (interest rates are currently at historical lows). Meanwhile, the US and UK are undertaking quantitative easing (also known as printing money), in a desperate bid to stave off asset-deflation, potentially leading to inflation and the need for further interest rate rises.
House prices are currently being boosted by the First Home Owner’s Grant, which, coupled with loan-to-valuation ratios of upwards of 90%, has resulted in a boom in the otherwise "affordable sector" of the housing market. (This boom has spilled to the upper-affordable level, as those who sell properties to first home buyers have more to spend on their upgrade).
When the boosted FHOG falls away later this year, if interest rates return to 7-8%, it is a more logical response that house prices will fall in the coming years, rather than rise. While auction clearance rates have spiked to upwards of 80% in Melbourne (and above 70% in Sydney and Brisbane), this appears to have been a result of panicked buying by first home owners, as evidenced by lending commitments to the first home sector hitting 28% earlier this year (in 2007, the figure was closer to 10%). The Financial Review noted this morning that the number of first home owner’s grants was up 67.5 percent in April, compared with the corresponding period in 2008.
As for investors re-entering the market, that is dependant on yields and forecast capital growth. Unless unemployment stays at a reasonably low level (it is forecast to rise to above 8%) and interest rates don’t spike, it is difficult to envisage investors re-entering the property sector.
BIS’ most recent report is not the first time that the researcher has been optimistic on the performance of the property sector -- in March 2008, BIS claimed that house prices would rise by 40% within five years (conveniently similar to the average 7.9% annual increase over the past two decades).
One significant yet often unreported problem faced by many home-buyers is a significant information asymmetry. As Crikey has previously noted, unlike publicly traded equities, it is reasonably difficult and expensive for home buyers to obtain detailed information regarding historical price data regarding specific properties. (Larger investors and real estate agents would obtain such information from the likes of RP Data, however, the time and expense often precludes "mum and dad" home buyers from accessing such information).
This problem may be alleviated somewhat through the development of an on-line property information service by SQM Research, a property advisory and forecasting researcher company run by former Australian Property Managers chief, Louis Christopher. SQM’s product (expected to be released shortly) will allow users to determine how long a listed property has been on the market, if the listed price has changed over that period and what the last sale price of the property was (for properties listed from more than 60 days). The "Home Discounts Report" costs $39 per suburb but unfortunately, does not extensively cover Victoria and Western Australia due to privacy requirements.
ants is really too nice a description for them...ants are actually hard working and smart...whereas those 5 idiots Krud, swan, tanner silliard and pong...are plain con artists, deceitful....and various more accurate words to best describe them.....
What a hoot, if they went bersek at the CBA they will be totally out of control with rage over this, or they'll have to appear so.
I can hardly wait for the news tonight.
What a side show, and the banks are watching these 2 ants leaping about from their offices on the 85th floor of some building they own laughing their heads off.
Thank God this idea died a thousand deaths. Just how low will Rudd go to keep the hot air in the housing bubble?
'Ruddbank' defeated in Senate
Thank God this idea died a thousand deaths. Just how low will Rudd go to keep the hot air in the housing bubble?
'Ruddbank' defeated in Senate
Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan says the Opposition is risking the livelihoods of thousands of people by voting against it.
Mr Swan says the Senate's actions mean that thousands of Australians involved with the commercial property sector could lose their jobs including plumbers, electricians and carpenters.
Ditto the situation in Qld where the govt itself predicts it will be eight years before they are likely to be out of deficit, but don't you worry about that, as Joh would have said, it's all to protect jobs, jobs, jobs.As stated by Swan in the referenced article : -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/16/2600073.htm
No need to worry about the underlying risk / cost that "RuddBank" posed to tax payers, no need to worry about the commercial property sector being accountable for its own destiny, no need to worry about the details. It's ALL about and ONLY about (according to Swan) - jobs, jobs, jobs (spin, spin spin).
Ditto the situation in Qld where the govt itself predicts it will be eight years before they are likely to be out of deficit, but don't you worry about that, as Joh would have said, it's all to protect jobs, jobs, jobs.
weekend results are scary,. Punters with auction fever. Recession? Bust all done and time for boom again? Seriously question the current 'bubble' and those buying in it. Things are going to get very rough
and "dont' you worry about that" it is about jobs jobs and more jobs. Where I live in a fairly new estate every second household relies on a building trade job as the prime wage earner.
and the scenerio is scary. We have put too many eggs in the one basket.
The latest from Blighty:Agreed - this market is going to find a lot of buyers in the current market in negatibe equity by 2010...In my opinion
The Middle Britain debt trap map: Curse of negative equity hits one in ten
By OLINKA KOSTER
Last updated at 7:27 PM on 24th June 2009
Comments (62)
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One in ten borrowers is in negative equity, a report shows. It warned that further falls in house prices could see the proportion soaring to one in three.
The international ratings agency Fitch said its findings point to a surge in mortgage defaults and repossessions.
Land tax bills will be issued again by March, but it will be 18 months from now before the reduced values register on notices because of a time lag.
Well some good news for robots beej et al. I've decided this thread is a waste of time effort and money. So I would just like to say, that any numbnut who thinks that property will boom within the next 5 years needs their head read.
thankyou
Good bye Good riddance.
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