House prices to keep falling for years

[robots]

hello,

it justs paradise man, i cant believe the ride we go on everyday Gumby

well done brothers,

this is all just economics 101, and some here (Beej, Kincella, associate professor robots, BillM, Johnemo etc) would be top of the class

man, i am so "anti-establishment"

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[GumbyLearner]

hello,

it justs paradise man, i cant believe the ride we go on everyday Gumby

well done brothers,

this is all just economics 101, and some here (Beej, Kincella, associate professor robots, BillM, Johnemo etc) would be top of the class

man, i am so "anti-establishment"

thankyou
associate professor robots

You're a doyen. There is no arguing with that. :iamwithst

 

[satanoperca]

Hi Robots,

Just trying to keep the discussion going, one more qtr to go.

Who would of thought prices would be up a whole 1.1%, oh you of course.

I will have to pump up those tyres on the pushy, always pays to be prepared.

Cheers

Benjamin

 

[robots]

hello,

i didnt make any predictions just had a bet with you to keep the discussion going and do my bit for ASF

the results are amazing, for the 30th time i wouldnt have a clue whats around the corner

just doing my bit for the community, have a great day

thankyou
robots

 

[Aussiejeff]

hello,

i didnt make any predictions just had a bet with you to keep the discussion going and do my bit for ASF

the results are amazing, for the 30th time i wouldnt have a clue whats around the corner

just doing my bit for the community, have a great day

thankyou
robots

hello,

no doubt about it robi, you are genius

i just wish the rest of us dummies had 1% of your smarts

total respects, man

thankyou
aussiebots

ps: vote robi for el presidente

 

[enigmatic]

can anyone explain to me how 1.1% up in house prices is calculated is this per month or year. just a question to keep discussion going

 

[kincella]

enigmatic
heres the link .

http://www.rpdata.com/news/rp/RP_Da...operty_Value_Indices_release_Mar_09_FINAL.pdf

and the article about the 1%

http://www.rpdata.com/news/rp/20090331_media.html

and the million dollars sales only account for 5% of all sales...its a very small % of the whole market

 

[enigmatic]

Cheers for that kincella although it does seem to support my idea that it would still be better for me to keep my money in the bank and save to reduce my total loan by 20k in the qtr then to worry about paying 4.5k extra in the qtr although my state actually went down 1% so i not only reduced the amount i need to borrow the interest rates have dropped and the house price has dropped, In all you would have to so I am up for not buying in yet.

Please note 20k is not the actual amount i save it may be more or less.

 

[satanoperca]

Thanks for the links.

Can someone please clarify the results of RPdata.
1) Are they for January & February 09 and not the first quarter of 09 (jan - March)?
2) Are the results just a guide given the month of February is indicative only as stated on the RPdata site?
3) Did RPdata release a similar report of Jan/Feb 08?
4) The YOY figures for Jan & February are all negative with exception to Darwin, does this indicate that the market has fallen?
5) If prices fell by 3.8% in 08 and have risen by 1.1% so far this year, does this imply that prices are still down on 07?
6) Why do they publish results that are indicative only?

Cheers

 

[satanoperca]

It could not be :
"Property crashes as first-quarter home sales, prices and clearances slump"

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25330870-25658,00.html

Clearance rates are significantly down YOY, unemployment on the rise, US in a dream about their financial situation, superannuation gone south and our own government spending money they don't have, can only see property prices going up in the short term.

Get ready, the SHBG (second home buyers grant) & THBG is on its way.

 

[MrBurns]

This cant be right , tell Robots he'll sort it out !

 

[singlefished]

A clear indicator that auction clearance rates mean squat when volume is only a shadow of it's former self....

 

[kincella]

the suburb I watch...no more cheap houses listed, the middle priced home is back on the market
oh I love that article today....if only the fhb have been in the market than the median price has to drop...the kids were buying up to that magical 600k mark..? what happened to the 300k figure as being the amount they could afford, and the investors have stayed away..so of course the numbers are down....
and no offence to RE Agents generally...but my experience with them has been...most of them must get their infor from the daily media.....its easy to twist their arms .........

 

[satanoperca]

and the investors have stayed away..so of course the numbers are down....
QUOTE]

Yes, sales numbers are down, investors are staying away, FHB paying more than they can afford, every indication that property is going to rise in the near term.

Yes, FHB have been spending a lot on housing, regardless if the FHBG continues after June it will be interesting if this trend continues throughout the year.

Qantas cuts jobs - another well known company reducing expenditure in the wake of a global slow down but don't worry nothing to see here folks.

 

[Beej]

Clearance rates are significantly down

Clearance rates are NOT down - they have been running at 70%+ in Sydney and Melbourne since Feb. Read the article again and work on comprehension skills.....

It states that auction sales volumes are down, and that the AVERAGE prices across all auctions are down (due to lower volume of top end property sales). This is not news. As usual articles like this one are behind the curve. If you check out the Sydney auction results for March, as I have shown in several postings on the "prices to rise" thread, you will see that top end auction results ($1M+) are on the rise, and the median sale price for auctions each week has been trending upwards significantly.

When I first saw the above post I was getting ready to eat some humble pie as I was expecting some sort of meaningful price data. Instead all we get is old news that sales volumes are down..... *yawn* - surprise surprise surprise! A soft real estate market, country in the middle of recession; is anyone surprised that most property owners are simply not selling? As I have stated many times before, this is so far following "standard" pattern of the R/E market during an economic downturn. I think the surprising thing (for some) should be that despite all this prices are actually rising in many price segments - especially in Sydney and Melbourne, due to the increased buyer competition for the lower number of properties on the market.

I stand by my call that median price figures for Q1 2009 will show increases in prices for Sydney, and probably Melbourne as well.

Anyone here want to go on record with a different prediction?

Qantas cuts jobs - another well known company reducing expenditure in the wake of a global slow down but don't worry nothing to see here folks.

Qantas is always cutting jobs, services, profits, then expanding them, then cutting them..... it's the airline industry, very cyclical....

Cheers,

Beej

 

[kincella]

I am not indicating that prices will rise in the near term.....its the long term view I am positive about...
and since everyone is focused on auction numbers.....and miss the other numbers, the private sales numbers exceed those of the auctions...
..................................................................................
Last week, 534 auction results were recorded. 420 sold and many column inches were devoted to their details in various publications. Meanwhile, over in the other world, 589 private sales barely rated a mention

http://www.morrellandkoren.com.au/topend/

 

[CamKawa]

It could not be :
"Property crashes as first-quarter home sales, prices and clearances slump"

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25330870-25658,00.html

"And after a dismal 2008, the Perth property market continues to struggle. Only 34 properties sold at auction over the first three months of this year, at an average of $372,000 -- down almost $200,000 on last year's average of $556,000."

Hasn't Perth bitten the dust!

I reckon the only thing stopping house price falls from really getting under way here is like satanoperca says a 2nd and 3rd house buyer bail out, and if Kevin doesn't have the money I think he may just print more of it, he has to, falling house prices are political poison. It'll be an interesting year ahead.

 

[satanoperca]

Anyone here want to go on record with a different prediction?

Beej

I have already placed my bet/prediction with Robots for a slab of beer and a parma if RE prices are negative for the year after the second quarter results are published by the ABS.

I will agree, that the first quarter results may show postive growth and why shouldn't they - record low IR rates, unemployment still low, government throwing money around, FHBG etc.

Beej, would you like to make any prediction for the end of the year results just for interest?

Talking about Qantas, shares have responded with a drop of 7%, still holding.

 

[drsmith]

Qantas is always cutting jobs, services, profits, then expanding them, then cutting them..... it's the airline industry, very cyclical....

It is but when did Qantas last make a loss ?

According to today's media release profit before tax (PBT) is expected to be in the range of $100m to $200m for the full 2008/09 financial year. In the last 6 months of 2008 PBT was $288m.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Property experts blame the fall on the fact investors are deserting the market. The top end of the market has been labelled as "dead".

Looks like Beej, Kincella and Robots will be drawing straws as to who will be turning out the lights.

but fear not, because house prices double every 7 years.