Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep falling for years

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This won't happen here because we are not part of the WFC ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7910329.stm?ref=patrick.net

Yes lots of cheap places up north here. Nearer to London drops not as dramatic but still evident, mostly units. Houses are less but if one is on variable rate things are not so bad only about 4% repayment. Those on fixed are stuffed. And as always the council taxes are on the rise, about 120 quid a month for the lower end of the scale.
 
Although the LTV (LVR?) is 60%.. interesting how in Australia we do not have better rates for lower LVR, at least not formally advertised.



I love this bit :D really?

Does not matter that much here, very few people read and write english anyway lol
 
No it's not, rent never falls in Australia. We aren't UK and we never had a credit boom. :rolleyes:

Yea except did you notice what the average rent in London is? Try just under 1700 pounds per month (from the article posted)! That's 392 pounds/week = over $AU800 per week, which is just about DOUBLE the average rent paid in Sydney. This in a country where there national average/median wage is somewhere around 25k pounds/year. So rents would have to fall a LONG way in London before they even approached the incredibly low levels we have here....

I think that stat takes quite a bit of wind out of the "if rents fall there they must fall here" arguments.

Beej
 
Yea except did you notice what the average rent in London is? Try just under 1700 pounds per month (from the article posted)! That's 392 pounds/week = over $AU800 per week, which is just about DOUBLE the average rent paid in Sydney. This in a country where there national average/median wage is somewhere around 25k pounds/year. So rents would have to fall a LONG way in London before they even approached the incredibly low levels we have here....

I think that stat takes quite a bit of wind out of the "if rents fall there they must fall here" arguments.

Beej

Naughty naughty Beej. At least give the BS a rest at the weekend.

Would you be so kind as to compare London's average rent to London's average wage?

Here, I've made it easy for you:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7802792.stm

Workers in London earn 50% more than employees in other parts of the UK on average, the GMB union has found. Full-time workers in London earn an average of £46,000, compared to the UK average of £31,300, the GMB found.
 
Naughty naughty Beej. At least give the BS a rest at the weekend.

Would you be so kind as to compare London's average rent to London's average wage?

Here, I've made it easy for you:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7802792.stm

Not BS at all - unless all the stuff you bears come out with is BS when you compare a median house prices to average wages, average wages to average rents etc for Australia as well. Of course the average wage in London is higher - that's the case in all big cities, just like people in Sydney earn more on average than in other parts of AU. Even so the average rent in London still takes HALF the average gross wage estimated by the article you linked to - average rents in Australia are nowhere near this level even in our biggest cities.

Beej
 
Not BS at all - unless all the stuff you bears come out with is BS when you compare a median house prices to average wages, average wages to average rents etc for Australia as well. Of course the average wage in London is higher - that's the case in all big cities, just like people in Sydney earn more on average than in other parts of AU. Even so the average rent in London still takes HALF the average gross wage estimated by the article you linked to - average rents in Australia are nowhere near this level even in our biggest cities.

Beej

Well forget about averages, most I know who live in London are in the 50K+ bracket, understandably. Why else would you want to live there?
 
Not BS at all - unless all the stuff you bears come out with is BS when you compare a median house prices to average wages, average wages to average rents etc for Australia as well. Of course the average wage in London is higher - that's the case in all big cities, just like people in Sydney earn more on average than in other parts of AU. Even so the average rent in London still takes HALF the average gross wage estimated by the article you linked to - average rents in Australia are nowhere near this level even in our biggest cities.

Beej
London and the outer suburbs are reporting an increasing number of houses for rent and a softening of rental prices.
This follows an official notification by the UK Land Registry that house prices fell in England and Wales by 15.1% in the year to January, the 17th straight monthly fall in prices.
Refer BBC2 Ceefax, London and ITV1 Oracle.
 
No it's not, rent never falls in Australia. We aren't UK and we never had a credit boom. :rolleyes:

hello,

and during 03-04 when we had similar glut of high rise, this affected units in most inner city suburbs

free dvd's, months rent for free, rents reduced, rents stayed same for many many years (a high % of this affected new BTL properties)

you wouldnt have any idea because you have never held a title

exactly we not uk, US or anything we the leaders of the free world

thankyou
robots
 
exactly we not uk, US or anything we the leaders of the free world

from our old mate :)

http://www.crikey.com.au/Business/20090223-Keen-Neoliberalism-and-economic-breakdown.html

I expect that the belief that the Australian banking system is immune from the problems that have beset the rest of the world will be sorely tested in the next year or two, as the macroeconomic crisis caused by financial deregulation strikes at the heart of Australian home ownership. The level of household debt in Australia is as high as in America (when measured in terms of each country's GDP), and though all the focus has been on the USA's irresponsible lending to the subprimes, in fact household debt in Australia grew three times as fast as it did in America in the last twenty years.

The Australian financial system is thus dependent on all Australian mortgage holders being able to service their debts, when the only source most of them now have to do that is their jobs. As jobs go as the crisis deepens, the solvency of the Australian financial system will be sorely tested.
 
hello,

another great opinion piece just like everyone here at ASF TevorS, nothing else

many still waiting to pick a place for 3x average income, but isnt that our right as Australians (hahahaha)

thankyou
robots
 
hello,

another great opinion piece just like everyone here at ASF TevorS, nothing else

many still waiting to pick a place for 3x average income, but isnt that our right as Australians (hahahaha)

thankyou
robots

Well yes robi Australia is a special place in the world, especially with people such as yourself so prevalent in its society. lol

Thankyou
 
hello,

spot on Knocker, always offering the hand of help to those putting in and contributing in society,

sit down with people at work and assist with all things financial to make sure their life travels an easy path

thankyou
robots
 
interest rates down, tax down, petrol down....most have more cash available than we did last year....and wonder how many know what disposable income is ??? just had some fun with a bear who thought it was not wages

so the ratio has dropped to an estimated 5.1%...no wonder the fhb's club is out there doing their bit

have alook at the chart at the bottom of the article
bit different to all the gloomy stats reported here
but with all the job losses now...we may as well all jump off a cliff
..........................
The RBA has recently published some long-term analysis on the subject across a variety of countries. It is useful noting upfront that the RBA’s estimate of Australia’s house price-to-income ratio in 2007 of 5.5x is lower than the Demographia finding. The second interesting point deriving from the RBA analysis is that contrary to some of Demographia’s claims, Australia’s house price-to-income ratio has actually declined since 2003 when it peaked at 5.9x (see chart below). Given that house prices in 2008 have decreased slightly while nominal disposable household incomes rose by a strong 9.5 per cent in the year to end September 2008 alone, our house price-to-income ratio should have declined quite substantially.

The next chart compares Australia’s long-term house price-to-income ratio with other countries. A few things are clear from this data. Observe that since 1985 the Australian ratio has always been higher than the other countries included in the analysis. This is because Australia has always experienced rates of capital growth that have been higher than most other nations since 1971 (according to IMF analysis) for idiosyncratic reasons related to the demand and supply drivers of housing in this country.

The other thing that you notice about these long-term ratios is that they do not appear to be stable; that is to say, in contrast to Cox’s claims, there is no evidence that a house price-to-income ratio of three can be classified as a “maximum historic norm”.


http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Demographia-Dogma-$pd20090129-NQTPP?OpenDocument&src=mp

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Ever met a wealthy person who complains and moans about everything ?

*** The best way to become a millionaire is to borrow a million dollars and have your renters pay it off.
Jack Miller

**** My posts are for experienced property investors only. They are not for the inexperienced or first home buyer. I make no recommendations to buy or sell.
 
interest rates down, tax down, petrol down....most have more cash available than we did last year....and wonder how many know what disposable income is ??? just had some fun with a bear who thought it was not wages

so the ratio has dropped to an estimated 5.1%...no wonder the fhb's club is out there doing their bit

Yes, the only market segment that is moving is the one given government assistance FHBG, given the above, all segments should be booming, why are we not seeing this?

Could it be we have spent more than we have earned, or the fact that our major trading partners are in recession or going into recession.

Gee, it would seem logically that if interest rates are so low and possibly going low (march) , unemployment is still at a healthy level, then the next boom is only months away. Can't what, cashed up and ready for the next ride.
 
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