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hello,
hahahahahaha,
oh yeah Junior, its 24hr party people for the St kilda Festival, still flying through the sky man
thankyou
robots
I make my statements from experience.
You insist everyone has links, so you must have them, so put up or shut up.
We need links and proof from people who insist on links and proof.
Demanding links as proof is a typical response from bears on Doom and Gloom forums, put up or shut up, no proof means it didn't happen.
I don't need to supply links, I never made the statement, you did, remember?
typical response from bears on Doom and Gloom forums,
But if you disagree supply links or proof, put up or shutup.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBurns View Post
I make my statements from experience.
What experience and for how long was this experience? Care to elaborate?
Thought as much, you've got nothing
And the first part of my question that you ignored?
hello,
awesome flick MrBurns, you rollin' em like that?
classic, keep them coming bro, ohm ohm ohm ohm ohm ohm
thankyou
robots
don't expect this to be the case in a few months time ~ shouldn't be too long before Krudd slashes immigration once unemployment starts rising
didn't you say there a baby boom going on? I'm pretty sure the bubs won't be buying houses by themselves and am also pretty sure most bubs are planned for prior to the conception.
where? as far as I know, the vast majority of people in Australia have a roof over their head whether renting or owner occupier. Just have a look at the rental vacancies and for sales on RE dot com
Why are you comparing apples with oranges????
a demographic shift from renting to owning cannot be good inverstors... less renters = lower prices!
Whoops... what will happen if there are no vacancies anywhere in Australia? The doors will close and the economy will stall so I can only see vacancy rates improving in the future. That certainly won't be a factor in driving house prices up.
as far as I know, $1 still only buys $1... apples and oranges again. Foreign investors are not a fulcrum that the market swings on...
could be plausible but with the doom and gloom in the economy I doubt it. Stocks have been going down for over a year now so how can you explain the increasing number of properties on the market and the lack of interest from buyers???
and 20% deposit also on the way too I believe
you appear to assume that the stock market is never going to recover... under your outlined scenario, what happens when global economies start recovering and money starts coming out the property market???
No. You have nothing, just an ability to bore, stop wasting peoples time.
Immigration will be cut to some degree, but not too much I wouldn't think. Even if our population growth falls from the current 1.7% right back to 1%, that's still higher than the UK (0.3%) USA (0.9%) and Japan (negative).
Increased family size often causes parents to look for larger accommodation.
Of course the vast majority have a roof over their heads, but still our caravan parks are overflowing, public housing and crisis shelter have waiting lists a mile long. Heaps of people are choosing to stay with their parents for longer than they would like, and plenty of people are house sharing beyond what is desirable - sleeping on mate's sofas etc.
I compared house prices in Australia with house prices in other countries. I don't see why you have a problem with that?
No... less renters = lower rents / higher vacancy rates. It does not mean lower house prices.
The low vacancy rates have been driving rents up. Eventually as rents move up and interest rates move down, property starts to become cash flow positive, which encourages investors to buy investment properties. This in turn pushes up the price of housing, but also increases the supply of rentals, which keeps a lid on rents. So the market is self balancing to a degree, however government policies such as ramping up immigration while stifling supply (though high taxes and poor land release) can cause price spikes such as we see today across much of Australia.
No... just one point from the many I put forward. At the end of the day, they all add up. I'm not saying that any one of the points by itself is enough. No singular fulcrums.
Simple - fear, uncertainty and doubt (making this a great time to buy!).
I don't think property will suffer when the global economies start to recover. Remember, I'm not expecting any strong growth for another couple of years. I think the next two years represent an excellent buying opportunity. A good time to pick up a bargain (especially at the top-end), lock in low interest rates, and wait for the inevitable boom in a few years time.
That's the ticket, make a comment, produce nothing to back it up and instead of admitting you are wrong just wriggle wriggle wriggle
And you accuse me of wasting peoples time LOL
Immigration over the last year hasn't stopped prices dropping so with even less immigration and more unemployment what shaky support there currently is will be gone.
Did you see ABC news tonight with Alan Kohler correlating unemployment with current advertised employment vacancies on the back of employment advertising figures falling for the 9th straight month in a row? It paints a nasty picture for the short term future....
re: The trend towards ppl/household.... you have countered this in your response below.... and as you note, families and friends will undoubtedly pull together during these tough times.... and i'm sorry to say but it will undoubtedly stay like this until the global economy starts seriously ticking up again and the debt bubble has somewhat deflated.
You cannot really compare paying down a median property in Australia with paying down a median property elsewhere in the world.
Can you honestly see our economy shifting away from it's reliance on commodities anytime in the near future??? What's going to drive the Australian economy of the future ~ if you can work it out then that's where you should really be investing your hard earned $$$$ and forget about property as a safe haven investment in the short term.
Fair enough, but you don't seem to hold much stock in the downside risks. How will property hold up if this downturn last for several years or even a decade? In 10 years time I'm sure you wont be patting yourself on the back like the property investors of old who, many of which, made hay while the sun shone during the years of economic expansion and cheap easy debt for the masses...
Not such a smart move however if you lose your job and your primary source of income in 6 months time...
The boom may not quite be as large as you believe it will be....
For the boom times of the past to return, you will need to see a substantial decrease in current property prices relative to income down to a ratio of say 4.5:1 over the medium term and then a subsequent increase in values in the long term back up to our current almost unservicable 7:1 ratio ~ that's the boat you're trying to buy a ticket for but this vessel is currently sinking and I don't think our government can bail fast enough to keep it afloat...
There will always be demand for commodities, however I think the future for Australia may lie in alternative energy. I think this is where we will see the next global 'bubble' with Australia leading the way.
You are wrong , you really are making a fool of yourself LOL
There will always be demand for commodities, however I think the future for Australia may lie in alternative energy. I think this is where we will see the next global 'bubble' with Australia leading the way.
I guess I'm just not that pessimistic. If we all approached investing with the mindset that the worst possible outcome is also the most likely one, then we'd never invest. If this downturn really does last 10 years, then we're all equally screwed!
Not such a smart move however if you lose your job and your primary source of income in 6 months time...
I'll try not to.
Wrong? I've said nothing to be wrong about.
I'm not the one who said I have a friend in the know who said the US has imploded and the world is ending and holding that up as some sort of statement of fact.
That was you
Your comment (made up, who knows?) shows who the real fool is.
Thats it, No more from me
This is why I'm not expecting much growth in the short term. I expect it will be around 2011 before we see strong growth again. In the meantime I expect moderate growth in Sydney (where prices are already down 20% from the peak) however I expect those cities that grew by 20%+ in 2007 will continue to slide, probably down 15-20% in real terms over a few years. And Perth will fall of course.
FHBs are very active at the lower end of the market. How long before this filters through to the wider property market? As I say, probably around 2011.
Here are some alternative studies...
There will always be demand for commodities, however I think the future for Australia may lie in alternative energy. I think this is where we will see the next global 'bubble' with Australia leading the way.
I guess I'm just not that pessimistic. If we all approached investing with the mindset that the worst possible outcome is also the most likely one, then we'd never invest. If this downturn really does last 10 years, then we're all equally screwed!
So will everyone else but unfortunately for many people they will lose thier jobs.
gfresh said:What the uber-bulls maybe don't realise is there has been a monumental deleveraging of wealth that was generated on funny money built up over a decade (credit derivatives). But that sort of credit market has changed forever.. The way in which large credit is generated by financial institutions to fund such massive excesses out simply isn't there until the next invention is concocted, and dare I say it, we pay off the last one properly.
I'm on the Goldcoast, and I can't see any signs of a turnaround at the moment, and it's taking a big hit from interstate investors pulling out optional investments and the locals not having enough earnings to take their place. That'll take a while to sort out, but yes, eventually it will.
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