House prices to keep falling for years

[numbercruncher]

Hello,


Yes we must admit that what bot lacks in financial acumen he makes up for in botic personality ....


Thankyou

numberbots

 

[robots]

Hello,


Yes we must admit that what bot lacks in financial acumen he makes up for in botic personality ....


Thankyou

numberbots

hello,

what about my number one tip over the years Numbercruncher:

work on your income and save hard

not that silly

thankyou
robots

 

[nunthewiser]

nah , number cruncher AOK in my book , no mindless abuse , no mindless insults .....
it seems only the ones with the lack of intelligence argue a point with the use of abuse and personal slagging off

at least numbercrunch keeping things honest too

 

[CamKawa]

ABS housing stats came out this morning. Good to see Melbourne leading the charge down.

source: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

 

[robots]

ABS housing stats came out this morning. Good to see Melbourne leading the charge down.

source: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

hello,

some more ammo for me when I go to my next centrelink appointment for mortgage assistance this week

like with home owners worse off than renters in the financial scheme it should be a no-brainer for the centrelink guy to give me some assistance

actually why do people get rent assistance?

thankyou
robots

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

some more ammo for me when I go to my next centrelink appointment for mortgage assistance this week

thankyou
robots

Gday Robots

is there truly such a thing re "mortgage assisance" from centrelink?

 

[gfresh]

Here is Brisbane chart for latest figures.. Back to December 2007 prices..

Wouldn't be surprising to see prices back to early 07 prices in the next 12 months. 2007 was a large "boom" year in Brisbane with double digit rises, so wouldn't be surprising to see that knocked off. No problem for most, but bad news if you bought last year though.

 

[robots]

hello,

no, it doesnt exist but it should

normally they want you to sell property, then go and rent and THEN they will give you rent assistance, amazing!

you should just get it straight off the cuff, another unfair policy against certain people of the community

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

robots..............thought it was TIC

if you have a problem with the mortgage...one would talk to the bank..otherwise sell, then go renting ...max rent assistance is about 100 pf for a single..if paying 240 pf ( dont get much for 120 pw)

oh and the abs figures...less than 1 % falls....wow...mind blowing...
and that figure is created by all the lower value houses sold to the fhb....

now where are those 40- 50% drops the kids have been shouting about

think some more interest as the rates keep dropping.....no interest in term deposits, or the stock market....
cheers

 

[numbercruncher]

Soooo early in the crash too .....


All 2007 flippers must be destroyed by now ....


RE at 10x incomes doesnt compute afterall huh ?

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

no, it doesnt exist but it should

normally they want you to sell property, then go and rent and THEN they will give you rent assistance, amazing!

you should just get it straight off the cuff, another unfair policy against certain people of the community

thankyou
robots

No worries

cheers

 

[numbercruncher]

actually why do people get rent assistance?

SO they can hand it over to money renters to keep the state sponsored bubble going ?

 

[robots]

hello,

ah, centrelink pays direct to money renter do they?

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

ABS housing stats came out this morning. Good to see Melbourne leading the charge down.

source: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

Well very interesting! My notes and observations:

1) National y/y Dec 07 -> Dec 08 fall = -3.3%.

2) Sydney, the largest market in AU and typically the leading indicator for other markets, was basically flat (-0.3%) in Q4, after the previous 2 quarters of larger negative moves. This data supports my previously stated (anecdotal evidence based) view that in Sydney prices pretty much stabilised at the end of last year due mainly to lowering interest rates and the FHB grant boost.

3) Perth is not down for the quarter anywhere near as much as everyone expected - why is that? Any Perth people got an explanation for that one?

4) Despite all the economic doom and gloom, the international situation etc etc, 3 cities still managed to put in a median PRICE INCREASE for the last quarter (Adelaide, Darwin and Canberra). Additionally, Adelaide and Darwin are both still in positive y/y territory (+2.0% and +3.8% respectively).

With interest rates continuing to fall plus the delayed impact of the cuts already in play, the FHB grant boost in full swing, and the effect of increased FHB numbers starting to flow through to sales volumes at higher rungs on the ladder in the first half of this year, normally I would say we were set up for a strong market and price rises. However, these factors will be offset by rising unemployment and lower job security with a corresponding lack of confidence to buy for many, even if not directly impacted by those factors.

The combined effect in my view will be a continued stabalisation of the market (I'm talking Sydney in particular) on falling turn-over as a lot of people - both potential buyers and sellers - pull their heads in some more. We will see quarterly stats through the year with small negative or small positive moves. Anyone intending to buy (or sell) will need to look at the trends in their own individual suburb/area to get an accurate picture of where things would stand if you were to pull the trigger.

Am I still considered a perma-bull here because I still think it is highly unlikely (virtually impossible) that prices will fall by 40+% across the board in Australia, and Sydney in particular? A view incidentally shared by most mainstream economists and commentators. Or because I think there is some real opportunity out there at the moment for FHBs, upsizers and astute investors alike? It still seems to me there is mounting evidence that the market here is not currently, and is not going to be, impacted by the same factors that have pushed the US and the UK down over the past 12-18 months.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[kincella]

beej, heard an interview today.... a lot of people were upsizing....and the fhb were taking those props,....sounds reasonable....
that was a good post....indicative of most prop investors thoughts imo
the other idea is to do those renovations....cheap money....and help keep the economy moving along....
I just see it as a huge window of opportunity for many .......if they can keep their jobs

 

[robots]

hello,

yes Kincella, i think its a fantastic time if you are "handy" to do basic reno's around the house to keep above the next joint,

plaster, painting, landscaping, tiling, front fence etc with the more you can do the better things will work out

in my travels around the local streets you always see the places which do sell are those which have been updated, presented well and a prominent agent

thankyou
robots

 

[Dowdy]

hello,

some more ammo for me when I go to my next centrelink appointment for mortgage assistance this week

like with home owners worse off than renters in the financial scheme it should be a no-brainer for the centrelink guy to give me some assistance

actually why do people get rent assistance?

thankyou
robots

Why do you need 'mortgage assistance'. I thought it's paradise where you are.

 

[knocker]

Why do you need 'mortgage assistance'. I thought it's paradise where you are.

Because he is FOS. (Full Of S...)

 

[Pommiegranite]

ABS housing stats came out this morning. Good to see Melbourne leading the charge down.

source: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

Not surprising at all. This quarter's falls will be even greater. The thing that many of these propvestors have forgotten is that that trend has well and truly changed, and the property market moves in one direction for years (hence the title of this thread). 10%+ per annum falls over the next several years is a given.

 

[Santoro]

Not surprising at all. This quarter's falls will be even greater. The thing that many of these propvestors have forgotten is that that trend has well and truly changed, and the property market moves in one direction for years (hence the title of this thread). 10%+ per annum falls over the next several years is a given.

Spot on.............while unemployment figures increase (+250,000), pressure is on current home owners and property prices and throws increasing caution on first home buyers......the fall will continue until data turns positive in the US or China.