Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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House prices to keep falling for years
- Thread starter Pommiegranite
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there is no shartage historically speaking. When people have less money more people live together, whether it be at home or in sharing a place.
For the boom to have worked it means that lots of investment properties had to be built, all that happened was that more people who were previously renting went out and bought to get in on the action somehow, so when times get tougher again nolt only will people not be buying and building like they used to during the boom but some of those who did buy will be selling up for whatever reason adn going back to living at home or in shared accomadation.
What peopel fail to appreciate is that now we have a big casual workforce, the unemployment figures get skewif real easy. David Jones for example has a 93% casual workforce, so what will happen besdies a few people being put off, many ofthe workers will have their hourse reduced, which means less income etc etc. These sorts of figures willnot show up properly in the stats, so the underlying real problem will be much greater than what appears at face value.
For the boom to have worked it means that lots of investment properties had to be built, all that happened was that more people who were previously renting went out and bought to get in on the action somehow, so when times get tougher again nolt only will people not be buying and building like they used to during the boom but some of those who did buy will be selling up for whatever reason adn going back to living at home or in shared accomadation.
What peopel fail to appreciate is that now we have a big casual workforce, the unemployment figures get skewif real easy. David Jones for example has a 93% casual workforce, so what will happen besdies a few people being put off, many ofthe workers will have their hourse reduced, which means less income etc etc. These sorts of figures willnot show up properly in the stats, so the underlying real problem will be much greater than what appears at face value.
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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I remember when Hawke/Keating stopped neg. gearing people set up Caravan in the back yards or rented under a house for some inlaw /mates who got the extra money tax free and every one was happy once they reintroduced neg gearing every thing went back to normal not that Neg . gearing is a good thing.
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Now here's a novel approach. Not sure how existing house prices would be maintained under this scheme though! 
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...omes-to-help-spark-economy-20090109-7d1k.html
what people dont realise is a few percentage point drop in RE is very significant...most people negative gear plus capital capital lost that's a double whamming.
if it prolong with and circumstances change in their life they could face a massive lost in capital.
Take a trip to the coast and you get local paper and you see people reduce price to off load their properties as there are no buyers...so if force to sell you are in a deep hole...this is good news for me as I wait a little longer and I buy a bargain holiday house.
Supply play a very small role when there is no money to buy and people are losing jobs, you can see that happening world wide.
if it prolong with and circumstances change in their life they could face a massive lost in capital.
Take a trip to the coast and you get local paper and you see people reduce price to off load their properties as there are no buyers...so if force to sell you are in a deep hole...this is good news for me as I wait a little longer and I buy a bargain holiday house.
Supply play a very small role when there is no money to buy and people are losing jobs, you can see that happening world wide.
So what data exactly are you basing this opinion on? Auction clearance rates? Sales volume data? Median price movements? Can you provide data that indicates an increased number of houses currently for sale than would have been typical over the past say 10 years?
And are you talking Australia wide or just the area in which you live?? I suspect you will find that currently WA and SEQ are experiencing very different market conditions to say Melbourne/Canberra/Sydney and surrounds.
I sold 2 properties (1 PPOR, 1 investment) last year and purchased one (PPOR), so have been pretty active in the market. This is Sydney lower north shore region. My domain.com.au property watch list has 72 properties on it that we were looking at for one reason or another since about September last year. Of those, 16 are still currently for sale, about 50 have sold (and I know the actual sale price in each case), and the rest were withdrawn from sale. The properties still for sale in most cases are compromised in some significant way and/or are over-priced for the current market. Towards the end of last year (late Nov) the number of new properties coming onto the market in this area slowed dramatically (maybe due to the xmas/NY period of course).
I'm awaiting eagerly the Dec quarter median price and sales volume stats, as based on my experience I don't believe the market in SYDNEY at least is anything like what AussieJeff generalises above. I expect median prices will have held steady in most more expensive area's, and possibly increased a little in mid-range and lower prices suburbs. I will back this OPINION up with the hard data once it is available (I expect!).
Cheers,
Beej
I sold 2 properties (1 PPOR, 1 investment) last year and purchased one (PPOR), so have been pretty active in the market. This is Sydney lower north shore region. My domain.com.au property watch list has 72 properties on it that we were looking at for one reason or another since about September last year. Of those, 16 are still currently for sale, about 50 have sold (and I know the actual sale price in each case), and the rest were withdrawn from sale. The properties still for sale in most cases are compromised in some significant way and/or are over-priced for the current market. Towards the end of last year (late Nov) the number of new properties coming onto the market in this area slowed dramatically (maybe due to the xmas/NY period of course).
So how do you know the actual sale prices may i ask... (spruik):
So how do you know the actual sale prices may i ask... (spruik)
:
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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The RE market doesnt revolve around Sydneys lower nth shore my furry little friend.
Australian Medians down for 2008, record amount of listings, glut of unsold homes, growing recession.
St Kilda and Nth Shore, np though, boom forever.
Australian Medians down for 2008, record amount of listings, glut of unsold homes, growing recession.
St Kilda and Nth Shore, np though, boom forever.
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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If the owners of the houses that were withdrawn for sale are holding out until the market rises again or are not desperate to sell then find things change they will decide to rent them out or sell and flood the market.
Houses are just the same as shares both go up and down only with shares you can tell what they are worth each day.
Coming to a town near you house prices down rents down.
If we have CGT on houses we would not be in this mess.
Houses are just the same as shares both go up and down only with shares you can tell what they are worth each day.
Coming to a town near you house prices down rents down.
If we have CGT on houses we would not be in this mess.
Beej,
I undertake similar research in the area of my interest....what some fail to see is the inferior properties sold...bottom of the market....and those properties will require significant upgrades to bring them up to the standard of the normal or average houses sold in the usual market....(non crisis market)
The '2 minute about to become property tycoon' just reads the headlines, property prices slump, sale numbers slump, houses prices down....all the media's sensational headlines that are published every second day....
then the 2 min tycoon's celebrate....house prices falling.....blah blah blah......
I also note properties have been removed from sale, and there are properties on the market for a quick sale, due to the misfortune of the owners....I also believe there are more than enough cashed up investors waiting to pounce and buy bargains when they see them.
I missed out on a bagain myself, and it was a huge bargain....obviously some of that bad news seeped into my normal thinking process....anyway the house is gone...another grabbed the bargain...and doubt I will see a similar opportunity....
cheers
I undertake similar research in the area of my interest....what some fail to see is the inferior properties sold...bottom of the market....and those properties will require significant upgrades to bring them up to the standard of the normal or average houses sold in the usual market....(non crisis market)
The '2 minute about to become property tycoon' just reads the headlines, property prices slump, sale numbers slump, houses prices down....all the media's sensational headlines that are published every second day....
then the 2 min tycoon's celebrate....house prices falling.....blah blah blah......
I also note properties have been removed from sale, and there are properties on the market for a quick sale, due to the misfortune of the owners....I also believe there are more than enough cashed up investors waiting to pounce and buy bargains when they see them.
I missed out on a bagain myself, and it was a huge bargain....obviously some of that bad news seeped into my normal thinking process....anyway the house is gone...another grabbed the bargain...and doubt I will see a similar opportunity....
cheers
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I am not aware of any official, independent monitoring stats for either the national number of existing houses being listed, or waiting to be sold per month, nor the waiting time, nor the number withdrawn etc. I don't expect any RE mobs would be eager to divulge what is unsold on their books, either? So, it is mine and a few other's personal observation, if you like. Of course, you can DYOR as you have done in your local area - but that is hardly representative of the nation as a whole?
I sold 2 properties (1 PPOR, 1 investment) last year and purchased one (PPOR), so have been pretty active in the market. This is Sydney lower north shore region. My domain.com.au property watch list has 72 properties on it that we were looking at for one reason or another since about September last year. Of those, 16 are still currently for sale, about 50 have sold (and I know the actual sale price in each case), and the rest were withdrawn from sale. The properties still for sale in most cases are compromised in some significant way and/or are over-priced for the current market. Towards the end of last year (late Nov) the number of new properties coming onto the market in this area slowed dramatically (maybe due to the xmas/NY period of course).
I'm awaiting eagerly the Dec quarter median price and sales volume stats, as based on my experience I don't believe the market in SYDNEY at least is anything like what AussieJeff generalises above. I expect median prices will have held steady in most more expensive area's, and possibly increased a little in mid-range and lower prices suburbs. I will back this OPINION up with the hard data once it is available (I expect!).
Cheers,
Beej
Crikey mate! Sydney "lower north shore" is hardly typical of outer suburban housing! How many km from the city? Surely, one of the most desirable places to live in Sid-uh-nee?
Hmmm. I bet if you conducted your RE existing homes for sale *research* in Parra or Cambelltown or Penrith or Liverpool or Woollongong or Sutherland Shire or Gosford or Newcastle or Wagga etc, you might just get a totally different idea of how the "suburban housing market" is performing atm.
Personally, I couldn't be bothered. I just know this. Some friends of mine in some of those areas have kept me informed on how many "For Sale" signs seem to be around - and lingering on for months and months. So, it's a fact in my own mind...
Enjoy your status.
aj
So how do you know the actual sale prices may i ask... (spruik)
Ummm - because I actually looked at them with a view to potential purchase and the agents ring me up and tell me when they sold? Or I was at the auction when they sold? Or I saw them reported sold in the weekly auction results?
Pretty obvious I would have thought?
Beej
mediocre....is alive and well, permeating society....more so than ever as noted on the net.....and these forums
the dumbing down of society
Mediocracy has two approaches to transforming culture. Dumbing down involves coarsening and trivialising output to the point where it becomes stupefying rather than enlightening. Sexing up involves wrapping up the trivial and vacuous in jargon and technique, in order to render it sufficiently opaque for its vacuity to be concealed. Often both qualities are combined, resulting in a low-grade product with a veneer of esoteric complexity.
the dumbing down of society
Mediocracy has two approaches to transforming culture. Dumbing down involves coarsening and trivialising output to the point where it becomes stupefying rather than enlightening. Sexing up involves wrapping up the trivial and vacuous in jargon and technique, in order to render it sufficiently opaque for its vacuity to be concealed. Often both qualities are combined, resulting in a low-grade product with a veneer of esoteric complexity.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Just found a great example of falling real estate values and the effect of a local bubble bursting.
Situated on a quiet dead end street...for the bargain price of just 200K :22_yikes:
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bi...mt=&header=&cc=&c=58094406&s=wa&tm=1231592013
Link said:
Situated on a quiet dead end street...for the bargain price of just 200K :22_yikes:
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bi...mt=&header=&cc=&c=58094406&s=wa&tm=1231592013
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Sunshine Coast 100 K off holiday homes, only buyers are FHO's using ATO money but the sellers are buying.
Suppose it is one way to get a few more $$ in to the community.
Smart ones are getting out while on top.
Suppose it is one way to get a few more $$ in to the community.
Smart ones are getting out while on top.
50m to the beach for snorkelling,
Have to be one brave snorkeller if that photo is "typical" !
50m to the beach for snorkelling,
Have to be one brave snorkeller if that photo is "typical" !
Well at least the place is top floor. Now worries about the sinking island lol. And look you get a shed to keep the tinny and the store is within rowing distance lol
:Hi guys,
Some news from the haves for the have nots:
Financial crisis 'yet to hit Sydney land values'
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/10/2462994.htm
New South Wales Valuer-General Phillip Weston says it will be another six months before the impact of the global financial crisis will be reflected in the state's land values.
Qld Treasurer stays optimistic on home buyers grant
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/10/2462933.htm
The Queensland Government says new figures show a big surge in Queenslanders applying for the first home owners grant.
Figures indicate first home owner grant boost
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/10/2463030.htm
Tanya Plibersek says new figures showing a boost in applications for the First Home Owner Grant are encouraging.
Some news from the haves for the have nots:
Financial crisis 'yet to hit Sydney land values'
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/10/2462994.htm
New South Wales Valuer-General Phillip Weston says it will be another six months before the impact of the global financial crisis will be reflected in the state's land values.
Qld Treasurer stays optimistic on home buyers grant
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/10/2462933.htm
The Queensland Government says new figures show a big surge in Queenslanders applying for the first home owners grant.
Figures indicate first home owner grant boost
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/10/2463030.htm
Tanya Plibersek says new figures showing a boost in applications for the First Home Owner Grant are encouraging.
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