House prices to keep falling for years

[Lancelot]

You dont get paid in AUD if your working/living overseas, so therefore the only time the AUD is relevant is relocation costs

Where are all these overseas jobs? I thought Ozies were coming home from US London etc due to financial crisis, job losses?

 

[prawn_86]

Where are all these overseas jobs? I thought Ozies were coming home from US London etc due to financial crisis, job losses?

Well if there's no jobs there, and rising unemployemnt here i guess that means Gen Y will have to stay at uni meaning very little income, meaning they wont be buying property any time soon, meaning less buyers, meaning property price slump/crash/fall/pull-back (call it what you like)

 

[chops_a_must]

If parents started turfing their leaching children out from under their skirts into the realworld you would soon see how much of a shortage there is.

Lol.

I love this prevailing sentiment that seems to be emerging here of late.

"How dare our children ever have been born!!!"


And I think you'll find there will be a heap more children moving back in with their family over the next few years. So much for them being leaches in the last few years...

 

[prawn_86]

Lol.

I love this prevailing sentiment that seems to be emerging here of late.

"How dare our children ever have been born!!!"

Yeh reminds me of a song lyric aimed at parents:

If we're fukced up, your to blame

 

[2BAD4U]

Well if there's no jobs there, and rising unemployemnt here i guess that means Gen Y will have to stay at uni meaning very little income, meaning they wont be buying property any time soon, meaning less buyers, meaning property price slump/crash/fall/pull-back (call it what you like)

You must have a wide screen on your computer, that would have to be one of the longest bows I've seen drawn yet.

 

[2BAD4U]

Will they enjoy their home when they realised they paid too much for it? When they are still paying off a loan and they can see that they asset has gone down they will cut back. It will dent sentiment, causing possibly more price falls.

Ummmm, let's try the other way around. Property prices fall, they have negative equity so why would they sell? They wouldn't, they will stay put creating a reduction in supply and prices start to go up again as demand goes up.

And this hot off the press, the number of homeloands ROSE 1.3% in October. That can't be right isn't there massive supply and no one buying? Changed my glasses, yep it's right number of homeloands ROSE 1.3% in October.

HERE

 

[Lancelot]

Lol.

I love this prevailing sentiment that seems to be emerging here of late.

"How dare our children ever have been born!!!"


And I think you'll find there will be a heap more children moving back in with their family over the next few years. So much for them being leaches in the last few years...

Sniff

I'm sorry, they are all precious little angels that work hard, can stand on their own 2 feet, pay their own way, have great respect for their elders, expect nothing from them and never get into trouble

http://www.sbs.com.au/thenest/

http://www.whitsundaytimes.com.au/story/2008/12/11/night-of-violence-in-airlie/

 

[chops_a_must]

You must have a wide screen on your computer, that would have to be one of the longest bows I've seen drawn yet.

Not really...

I think there have been studies done that have shown people continue education longer in times of hardship.

I think some Unis have reported receiving record levels of interest for next year, as opposed to the last few years where year 12's have gone straight up north etc.

 

[chops_a_must]

Sniff

I'm sorry, they are all precious little angels that work hard, can stand on their own 2 feet, pay their own way, have great respect for their elders, expect nothing from them and never get into trouble

http://www.sbs.com.au/thenest/

http://www.whitsundaytimes.com.au/story/2008/12/11/night-of-violence-in-airlie/

Lol.

That's a new one... It used to always be, "I wish I was still young."

Now it's, "I was never young... ever!!!"

 

[2BAD4U]

How much impact would a few uni students have on the housing market if they study a bit longer? 1/10th of stuff all.

 

[chops_a_must]

How much impact would a few uni students have on the housing market if they study a bit longer? 1/10th of stuff all.

I'd say a whole heap.

Many have been walking out straight into big salaries, and big mortgages or big rents after graduation.

After all, it's traditionally uni grads that are the home owners.

 

[2BAD4U]

After all, it's traditionally uni grads that are the home owners.

WTF????? How did you come up with that?

 

[sinner]

The above does not make sense; someone being in a negative equity position has no bearing whatsoever on whether they might be in "mortgage stress" or not? Mortgage stress is about HOW MUCH someone owes, what their income is and what the costs of servicing their loan is. The value of the underlying asset has no bearing on this equation at all......

What a totally naive statement. I thought you were supposed to be a realestate type smart guy or something Beej?

Before you say sub-prime is different to underwater houses, it'd be worth noting that counterparty risk (unwillingness or inability to repay) and asset price risk are indeed two of the four criteria used to determine a mortgage as sub-prime or vulnerabe to systemic risk. Let us ignore the other two criteria (liquidity risk and credit risk).

So really just a bunch of further alarmist fluff there mostly. All based on conjecture about further price falls that have not yet happened. "Experts" predicted AU/US $ parity a few months ago too - how wrong they were! Plenty of other examples. Some things are not worth worrying too much about until/if they actually happen, and even then let's worry about the right thing!

Rediculous!

Oh and PS - 300,000 households = 3.5% of total households.....wow, disaster...and most of them probably don't care anyway as they only recently bought their home and are still enjoying it along with low interest rates. And we are not even anywhere near these numbers yet anyway. With Sydney pretty much bouncing around the bottom I don't see it happening either.

Cheers,

Beej

For those who say "only 3%" heh sounds very much like the "only 6%" (subprime % of total US mortgages) US property bulls were claiming would mean no problems with sub-prime! We saw the impact of that...and the US commercial realestate bubble is well on its way to popping but totally off everyones radar!

 

[chops_a_must]

WTF????? How did you come up with that?

Because they make more perhaps?

 

[2BAD4U]

Because they make more perhaps?

So labourers, truck drivers, check out chicks, people working two jobs, don't count? So when they are working two jobs or long hours it's for the love and not to service a mortgage? Approximately 20% of the population are uni grads.

 

[Julia]

After all, it's traditionally uni grads that are the home owners.

Really? I'd like to see the stats on that.
Lots of tradies and others without any tertiary education owning homes.

 

[chops_a_must]

Really? I'd like to see the stats on that.
Lots of tradies and others without any tertiary education owning homes.

Of course there are. But as a percentage of them as a group, I would have thought it was just common sense.

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL

 

[Beej]

What a totally naive statement. I thought you were supposed to be a realestate type smart guy or something Beej?

Before you say sub-prime is different to underwater houses, it'd be worth noting that counterparty risk (unwillingness or inability to repay) and asset price risk are indeed two of the four criteria used to determine a mortgage as sub-prime or vulnerabe to systemic risk. Let us ignore the other two criteria (liquidity risk and credit risk).

Not really sure what you are on about sinner?? Mortgage stress is traditionally defined something like this:

"Quite simply, mortgage stress means you're struggling to manage your level of debt and meet your mortgage repayments.

Traditionally, you were said to be in mortgage stress if you spent more than 30 per cent of your taxable income on your home loan repayments.

Don't see any mention there about underlying asset value, negative equity, "sub-prime" or anything else related to what you have just been going on about.....

I think my original assertion still stands and you have an incorrect definition of what is meant by the term "mortgage stress". Ie, the number people who might, or might not, find themselves temporarily in a negative equity scenario has no bearing whatsoever on the level of mortgage stress those same people may or may not be under!

EDIT: Oh and just found this: "Mortgage stress down with rate cuts: HIA"

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/mortgage-stress-down-with-rate-cuts-hia-20081212-6x9t.html

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Lancelot]

Lol.

That's a new one... It used to always be, "I wish I was still young."

Now it's, "I was never young... ever!!!"

If being young means having no respect, getting into drunken fights and the inability to stand on my own two feet and man up to my actions then, yes, I was never young.

Me and my mates moved out and supported ourselves at 16, some of us even got married.

None of us stayed at home sponging allowing bucketloads of disposable income for continual holidays and pissups, while parents supported us, purchased food, paid the bills, and cleaned up our mess

But, Its different now