House prices to keep falling for years

[So_Cynical]

Sydney auction clearance rate 47% for the weekend - 181/382 sold: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf

Cheers,

Beej

Nice link Beej...Some standouts - houses in good areas (Sydney)

Ashfield: 36 Gower St 3 br h $600,000
Banksia: 13 Monahan Av 3 br h $395,000 (Nth Rockdale)
Beaconsfield: 90 Victoria St 2 br h $482,000 (Sth Alexandria)
Darlinghurst: 58 Chisholm St 2 br h $402,000
Leichhardt: 33 Albert St 3 br h $620,000

This gives me some hope ill be able to continue living in Sydney and own
something nice here, one day soon....Whats SP mean (in the result column)

 

[cutz]

SP sold prior (to auction)

 

[So_Cynical]

SP sold prior (to auction)

OK cool, thanks....in that case ill also include.

Newtown: 43 Kent St 2 br h $420,000
Normanhurst: 4/59 Campbell Av 2 br h $445,000
Leichhardt: 46 MacKenzie St 2 br h $680,000

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

check check brothers,

14.7% for St Kilda Sept Quarter 08,

I am with you Indie, another day in paradise

thankyou
robots

You keep telling us this but Enzo from the REIV dissagrees ! Seems like Melbournes getting torched to me .... Maybe hes just talkin it down to snap up some bargains eh ?

Four-bedroom homes in the inner east, which includes suburbs such as Kew, Camberwell, Canterbury, Richmond and Hawthorn, posted a 13.2% fall in the September quarter.

Three-bedroom inner-east houses have also faired badly, tripling the city median with a drop of 9.9%.

It was a similar case for three-bedroom homes in the inner-south where homes across St Kilda East, Prahran, Caulfield North and Armadale have slipped for the three months to September by 12%.

REIV figures reveal that four-bedroom homes in Melbourne's inner-east have recorded the largest falls over the past 12 months, dropping 15% since September 2007.

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Article.aspx?id=1226318725038&index=NationalIndex&headline=Premium%20suburbs%20bear%20brunt%20as%20real%20estate%20market%20reels


Maybe it was just your house that went up 15pc Robi ? I mean that coat of paint did wonders mate

 

[robots]

You keep telling us this but Enzo from the REIV dissagrees ! Seems like Melbournes getting torched to me .... Maybe hes just talkin it down to snap up some bargains eh ?



http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Article.aspx?id=1226318725038&index=NationalIndex&headline=Premium%20suburbs%20bear%20brunt%20as%20real%20estate%20market%20reels


Maybe it was just your house that went up 15pc Robi ? I mean that coat of paint did wonders mate

hello,

i think you should run you're highlighter over ST Kilda East properly brother, i have reported that for misleading and dishonest conduct (on par with RE agents I reckon)

probably was Number, fabulous isnt it

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Same difference ?

anyways there was NO 15pcprice jump for St kilda is my main point, you must of dreamt it ? whole of melbourne is down ...

same article .....

Regions that performed better than the 3.3% drop across Melbourne (reflecting strong demand) included inner-city two-bedroom homes with a fall of 2.1%,

 

[robots]

hello,

more spin, you a car salesman Number?

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

This info is from Mlebournites queen of property bulls Enzo, from the REIV !

Are they unreliable these days ?

 

[Naked shorts]

I really cant wait for these property "gurus" to go bankrupt. I see far too many of them around, all blinged up, thinking they are the sh*t and they are better then everyone else.

They have caught onto a cycle where they think property always goes up and in effect, buy and sell property off one another, "making money". Kind of like a ponzi scheme.

I smell humble pie cooking.

 

[robots]

This info is from Mlebournites queen of property bulls Enzo, from the REIV !

Are they unreliable these days ?

hello,

amazing, you believing him NOW! wasnt he always unreliable

man this place is fantastic, what a high just being here speaking bollocks with all the brothers,

wayneL pops up an article from a bank and its now gospel, what happened to vested interest

thankyou
robots

 

[grace]

beerwm, it is happening, but not as forced yet. Margin calls force investors to rethink all their holdings. Unemployment forces people out of over-leveraged properties. As house prices fall, a domino effect takes place with more selling. If a recession or bad sentiment is around, again, people save and aren't as keen to take on debt, reducing demand. The opposite of supply is demand. If supply increases and demand decreases at the same time, then it doubles in its effect. Its a spiral that will take years to play out completely.

I think the market is currently going through a bit of a reaction rally, because of lowering rates but will continue downwards more severely next year as the recession/unemployment sinks in.

I heard a statistic the other day that 1/3 of QLD is employed by the mining industry. Another third, I am just guessing, would probably be tourism/retail. QLD has been a major focus for speculative property investors, similar to the US style property speculation. Some regions will be hit harder than others - QLD and WA the worst.

Most other major stock-market crashes have caused a property crash within 3 years. The US and UK are both experiencing major drops. Australia has one of the highest personal debts in the world, higher than the US, and yet - you think we will be immune?

Very sensible post here. There has never been a time in history that

1. the property market has not followed the sharemarket down after a major correction and
2. the australian property market has not followed the rest of the world down.

The catalyst will be job losses. It is starting to happen. Banks are also requiring a higher % deposit.

Credit is drying up all over the place.

Every day I see about 2 small mining company's filing for voluntary administration.

All of these mines employ people/contractors.

Actually, it is the contractors that we don't see figures on in the unemployment stats.

Anyway, I just see property following the sharemarket down. It is just that little bit slower to react, but that has always been the case in history too.

 

[Vizion]

hello,

i think you should run you're highlighter over ST Kilda East properly brother, i have reported that for misleading and dishonest conduct (on par with RE agents I reckon)

probably was Number, fabulous isnt it

thankyou
robots

Not sure what your reporting robots or even whom? can you clear that up for me please?

Was it this bit in the article that your asking us to check again? because it clearly states.

It was a similar case for three-bedroom homes in the inner-south where homes across St Kilda East, Prahran, Caulfield North and Armadale have slipped for the three months to September by 12%.

You own units don't you? the article mentions 3 bedroom houses maybe the units have not gone down?

 

[robots]

Very sensible post here. There has never been a time in history that

1. the property market has not followed the sharemarket down after a major correction and
2. the australian property market has not followed the rest of the world down.

The catalyst will be job losses. It is starting to happen. Banks are also requiring a higher % deposit.

Credit is drying up all over the place.

Every day I see about 2 small mining company's filing for voluntary administration.

All of these mines employ people/contractors.

Actually, it is the contractors that we don't see figures on in the unemployment stats.

Anyway, I just see property following the sharemarket down. It is just that little bit slower to react, but that has always been the case in history too.

hello,

"past performance is no indication of future performance" is that how it goes,

gee its tough now on Sunday night with no Idol

thankyou
robots

 

[xoa]

Every month the RE agents keep blaming one thing after another for the deteriorating market: horse races, long weekends, weather, holiday season.. I wonder what it will be next time.

 

[robots]

hello,

what a night, all the fav's are popping up: xao, Number, a new guy called vision45

your parents sitting tight on the properties xao?

the joints rocking

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

OK cool, thanks....in that case ill also include.

Newtown: 43 Kent St 2 br h $420,000
Normanhurst: 4/59 Campbell Av 2 br h $445,000
Leichhardt: 46 MacKenzie St 2 br h $680,000

Yep that's right - the Sydney market in particular is a very broad and large R/E market - everything from 2 bed units from $150k and 3 bed houses from $250k, up to $10M+ harbourside mansions, and everything in between. Sort of put's to bed all the BS about an affordability crisis doesn't it? Rather it just shows that it's all more about an "expectation crisis" really at the moment..... However, there are some good opportunities around right now for sure.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[So_Cynical]

Yep that's right - the Sydney market in particular is a very broad and large R/E market - everything from 2 bed units from $150k and 3 bed houses from $250k, up to $10M+ harbourside mansions, and everything in between. Sort of put's to bed all the BS about an affordability crisis doesn't it? Rather it just shows that it's all more about an "expectation crisis" really at the moment..... However, there are some good opportunities around right now for sure.

Cheers,

Beej

Good houses in good areas are still unaffordable to me and im a very
average person....sure i can afford to buy out in North St Marys or
Liverpool etc, but i have an expectation of living happily.

A terrace in Newtown for under 370 will do me. and where not there yet.

 

[Beej]

Good houses in good areas are still unaffordable to me and im a very
average person....sure i can afford to buy out in North St Marys or
Liverpool etc, but i have an expectation of living happily.

A terrace in Newtown for under 370 will do me. and where not there yet.

Like I said - it's an EXPECTATION crisis, not an affordability one...... that's why prices will never fall as low as you are hoping. Do you really think people who live in St Mary's, Penrith, Liverpool, Camden etc etc are all unhappy? You may be surprised to find large numbers of extremely happy people living in area's like that! I bet there are more unhappy people in Mosman right now.....

People in your situation have 4 choices, 3 of them practical ones:

1) Make or earn more money until you can afford to buy where you want to live

2) Buy where you can afford now, pay off, and then upgrade later

3) Keep renting (and saving) and try and keep ahead (a flat market will enable this, but who knows for how long?)

4) Wait for prices to crash until you (and of course EVERYONE else) can get what you want for the price YOU think is fair.

Of course the problem with 4) is the pent up demand will never actually allow this to happen, so option 4) is for dreamers IMO

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Aussiejeff]

hello,

what a night, all the fav's are popping up: xao, Number, a new guy called vision45

your parents sitting tight on the properties xao?

the joints rocking

thankyou
robots

hello,

robots your joints rocking because the foundations are being white-anted.

thankyou
ozziebots

 

[Junior]

Like I said - it's an EXPECTATION crisis, not an affordability one...... that's why prices will never fall as low as you are hoping. Do you really think people who live in St Mary's, Penrith, Liverpool, Camden etc etc are all unhappy? You may be surprised to find large numbers of extremely happy people living in area's like that! I bet there are more unhappy people in Mosman right now.....

People in your situation have 4 choices, 3 of them practical ones:

1) Make or earn more money until you can afford to buy where you want to live

2) Buy where you can afford now, pay off, and then upgrade later

3) Keep renting (and saving) and try and keep ahead (a flat market will enable this, but who knows for how long?)

4) Wait for prices to crash until you (and of course EVERYONE else) can get what you want for the price YOU think is fair.

Of course the problem with 4) is the pent up demand will never actually allow this to happen, so option 4) is for dreamers IMO

Cheers,

Beej

I'm sorry, but this statement is laughable. The stats clearly show that housing affordability in Australia is at all time lows due to aggressive credit expansion over the past 10-20 years. Rising unemployment and tighter lending standards will accelarate the correction/crash in housing prices...it's simply a matter of will prices drop by 20% or 60%?