Hottest January Ever

[wayneL]

21C last night in TSV. We had to turn the aircon off in the bedroom and just do with the fan, it was so bloody cold.

gg

LOL

We could arrange for a care package to be sent up from Brissy.... blankets, rum, etc

 

[Sdajii]

I have no problem with debate on the subject of climate change. It's just that I don't see this thread as the right place for it - this one's about the recent weather, not long term climate.

+1

Most people don't even know the difference between weather and climate, or even that there is a difference.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Well more records continue to fall in the Southern States and in Central Australia , the heat is not going away and with only a few weeks to the official start of Winter it looks like there won't be much Winter this year.
It's about 23 degrees here in Hobart today and the next few days are set to get warmer , the average for May should be 14.4 degrees. Adelaide has just broken it's hottest May day on record today.
Links and articles below.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-begins-near-record-late-autumn-warm-spell/24412

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/alice-tipped-to-break-another-weather-record/24424

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-sets-heat-record-for-may/24423

Oh well saving on the heating bills anyway

 

[Ijustnewit]

The Month of March has proven to be the Hottest on Record in Tasmania.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/warm-march-weather-sets-record/24693

We have also skipped Winter and gone straight to October !! June temperatures are around 6 degrees over by day and 5 degrees over by night so far and no change is on the horizon for the next 2 weeks. If this keeps up another record smashing month will be set again. If anyone wants a Winter getaway to a Tropical Island with great food , wine and culture come on down. Just bring your sunscreen ( due to the bloody big hole in the Ozone over Antarctica) and some Summer clothes. No jackets or umbrellas required.

 

[Knobby22]

The Month of March has proven to be the Hottest on Record in Tasmania.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/warm-march-weather-sets-record/24693

We have also skipped Winter and gone straight to October !! June temperatures are around 6 degrees over by day and 5 degrees over by night so far and no change is on the horizon for the next 2 weeks. If this keeps up another record smashing month will be set again. If anyone wants a Winter getaway to a Tropical Island with great food , wine and culture come on down. Just bring your sunscreen ( due to the bloody big hole in the Ozone over Antarctica) and some Summer clothes. No jackets or umbrellas required.

Fascinating.
I am sure the sea temperatures around Tassy will drop by July though and it will be freezing for a month.
Tempted to have a little holiday there though with the family

 

[Smurf1976]

For the weather in Tasmania I blame Dark MOFO. :

Seriously, the underlying pattern hasn't really changed apart from brief spell a few weeks ago. Rainfall is way down on normal, and temperatures are higher than normal. It is perhaps not as noticeable since it's Winter so obviously it's not 42 degrees outside, but the underlying pattern hasn't gone away.

In terms of impacts, they are starting to become apparent. There's heaps of wallabies and other animals coming into suburban areas in search of water, since the bush has dried out almost completely around Hobart. Plants are suffering a bit too it seems.

In terms of human impacts, obviously it's not good news for farmers. As for water storage, further afield I heard there's a town somewhere in Queensland that has now run dry, the first one to do so in this current drought cycle in Australia. Back in Tasmania, the Hydro's rain making efforts have thus far been crimped by a lack of suitable clouds although the cloud seeding plane did go up in full operational mode on the 1st of May over the Gordon catchment.

Solar exposure in Hobart has been slightly below average for most of 2013 thus far, although May was an exception with above average figures. Going back a bit further, it was well above average toward the end of 2012.

Wind at Woolnorth (wind farm) has been above average overall, with most weeks at least average and some that are well above this.

 

[Ijustnewit]

For the weather in Tasmania I blame Dark MOFO. :

Seriously, the underlying pattern hasn't really changed apart from brief spell a few weeks ago. Rainfall is way down on normal, and temperatures are higher than normal. It is perhaps not as noticeable since it's Winter so obviously it's not 42 degrees outside, but the underlying pattern hasn't gone away.

In terms of impacts, they are starting to become apparent. There's heaps of wallabies and other animals coming into suburban areas in search of water, since the bush has dried out almost completely around Hobart. Plants are suffering a bit too it seems.

In terms of human impacts, obviously it's not good news for farmers. As for water storage, further afield I heard there's a town somewhere in Queensland that has now run dry, the first one to do so in this current drought cycle in Australia. Back in Tasmania, the Hydro's rain making efforts have thus far been crimped by a lack of suitable clouds although the cloud seeding plane did go up in full operational mode on the 1st of May over the Gordon catchment.

Solar exposure in Hobart has been slightly below average for most of 2013 thus far, although May was an exception with above average figures. Going back a bit further, it was well above average toward the end of 2012.

Wind at Woolnorth (wind farm) has been above average overall, with most weeks at least average and some that are well above this.

Hi Smurf , Yes the MOFO Nude Swim could be impacting on the climate. I've read the Aztecs had a similar Dark Festival and looked what happened to them.
The rainfall in Hobart is the biggest concern , so far this year we have only 128mm. This time last we had received 227mm to this date , and it was a very dry year by averages. So if the current patterns continue we are in major trouble this year come Spring and Summer.
It has now been 23 months straight since we have had a below or on average Monthly Temperature. Very significant indeed. The bureau is not saying much on the situation mainly because it's only Tasmania, if a major city on the mainland was clocking up these sort of climate records it would be all over the news.
I guess all we can do is hope for a change soon and that the fire season is not as severe as last season.

Cheers
IJN

 

[orr]

It has now been 23 months straight since we have had a below or on average Monthly Temperature. Very significant indeed. The bureau is not saying much on the situation mainly because it's only Tasmania, if a major city on the mainland was clocking up these sort of climate records it would be all over the news.

IJN

So much and in so many ways 'is' by what 'is not' said. I've surfed for over 40 years, which gives an appreciation for weather its reporting and its forecasting. A few years ago the ABC news Dropped, subtly, from the weather reporting what had been formatted feature, from well before its poignancy had any meaning to me. No longer do you hear, as the current temperature is announced how many degree's above or below average what the current temperature is.
Consider if you will, for a moment, 23 consecutive months, and the mathematics dictates a steady increase in the years previous, of the vast majority of news broadcasts ending in the temperature being announced as 'x' amount of degrees 'above average'. Like a 'dooms-day metronome', as the ABC worriers in the thread down the hall would no doubt label it... Best to 'hear no evil'.
Someone made that decision in or about the late Howard era... "best to 'say no evil' "... Anybody know who?

Who might it best serve the interests of?... best that the population not to see evil.

 

[Knobby22]

Biggest floods in central Europe since the middle ages. Yes the middle ages!!!

Our media has completely ignored it. I only know because someone had to come back from the holidays early.

Summary here:

http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress...d-since-the-middle-ages-you-read-that-correct

Full information here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2432

 

[sails]

Biggest floods in central Europe since the middle ages. Yes the middle ages!!!

Our media has completely ignored it. I only know because someone had to come back from the holidays early.

Summary here:

http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress...d-since-the-middle-ages-you-read-that-correct

Full information here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2432

So what caused the same floods in the middle ages?

Yes, the middle ages!!!

Surely co2 levels were lower then - smaller population and before industrialisation.

 

[Knobby22]

So what caused the same floods in the middle ages?

Yes, the middle ages!!!

Surely co2 levels were lower then - smaller population and before industrialisation.

The point is that its happened twice over the last 3 years!! So called 1 in 500 year floods. Is this the new normal?
I don't want to get into climate change discussions - same old ground. Just pointing it out.

 

[explod]

With town planning, clearing of forests and modern drainage it takes much more rain for a big flood than it did way back then. There is just no comparison to the tempests occurring now.

And in fact it is the free flowing rivers that is causing the rise in soil salinity and loss of fertility. But that is another story; refer to "Back from the Brink" Peter Andrews, 2006.

 

[Smurf1976]

If there's one place that gets heaps of rain it's the West Coast of Tasmania. Especially in Winter, it rains most days.

Well it usually does. But for the past two weeks there has been a grand total of 0, yes zero, rain at Zeehan. Meanwhile Tullah has had under 2mm and at Reece power station there has been under 3mm. Lake Burbury has had 1.8mm, Strathgordon 2.4mm and even the Franklin River has recorded only 1.8 mm. That's the total for the whole two weeks, whereas normally you'd expect more than that in a single day.

OK, so two weeks doesn't make a drought, but this comes after the weather of the past Summer and suggests to me that we're still very much in a dry pattern. It's not quite time to panic yet, but I suspect that farmers would be starting to worry as the rains are certainly "late" this year that's for sure.

As for water storage, normally at this time of year the Mersey-Forth and Pieman hydro schemes would be running flat out 24/7 with rising water levels. They have only limited storage, and thus operate baseload (24/7) during Winter and peak load during Summer with the other schemes with much larger storages doing the opposite. They are a substantial operation, with 11 power stations between them.

Suffice to say that current storage levels are 13% for the Mersey-Forth and 16% for the Pieman and both are now being operated to meet peak loads only.

The lights won't be going out, the system is flexible enough to cope with the current circumstances and baseload production has been redirected to the other schemes with much larger storages, but it does illustrate the point about just how little rain is actually falling.

Also and somewhat at odds with the rest of it, Hobart just recorded 9 consecutive days of below the June average solar radiation, the longest such spell since 1996. In other words, it was heavily overcast. And it has also recorded one of the lowest daily maximum temperatures for many years too.

So overall it's fair to say that at least in Tasmania, the weather is anything but "normal" recently.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Hobart is about to start a week and half run of temperatures averaging 16 degrees daytime and 9 over night.
The average should be around 11.7 daytime and 4.6 nighttime, so we are still getting way over temps in the middle of winter. Another thing is we are yet to wake up to snow on Mt.Wellington a very strange and worrying thing this late into winter. I have been saying we are heading for a drought down here and it's looking more likely every day now. As Smurf said it's winter and it should be raining every day down here , it's our wet season. We are in major trouble with bushfires come spring and summer if this continues.:1zhelp:

 

[Knobby22]

I don't really understand that Ijustnewitt as Melbourne is going through a cold spell. Though its really frost and then sunny days.
We haven't had the bitterly cold weather yet though that we usually get around now.

 

[Ijustnewit]

I don't really understand that Ijustnewitt as Melbourne is going through a cold spell. Though its really frost and then sunny days.
We haven't had the bitterly cold weather yet though that we usually get around now.

The difference is Melbourne has had twice it's monthly average in rain . Hobart and most of Tasmania has missed out. Large high pressure systems that are usually not present in winter are driving away cold fronts . That means wetter weather on the mainland, as we are seeing in NSW. Melbourne is about to have the same run of warmer weather as Hobart , it's just not as noticeable as Melbourne's daily averages are higher to start with.

 

[Smurf1976]

Hobart is about to start a week and half run of temperatures averaging 16 degrees daytime and 9 over night.

Apart from the Easterly a couple of weeks ago plus an earlier rainfall event in the West and Central Plateau areas, it's been pretty much constantly warm and dry all year.

Low as they are, the rainfall figures don't really tell the full story because most of what has fallen, has fallen in one or two rainfall events. Likewise the temperature average has been held down by a small number of very cold days and nights. But the majority of days are dry and warmer than usual - the underlying trend seems to still be there.

All that said, we're only a third of the way through the wet season so it's not time to panic yet.

 

[Knobby22]

It is weird this Tassie Melbourne rain thing.
I heard on the radio this morning that in Melbourne, we just had the wettest June in 50 years and the warmest June ever.
(Cue eerie music).

 

[Sdajii]

What's the big scare about the hottest or wettest or driest r coldest in 50 years? You can expect that sort of thing every 50 years or so unless the climate is perpetually going in the opposite direction. We haven't seen the warmest June ever, just since records began (recently).

Look at any dynamic system, you're going to break the 50 year record about every 50 years, the 100 year record every 100 years or so, the 1, 000 year record every 1, 000 years or so, the million year record every million years or so, etc.

What's happening at the moment is not at all unusual. When we can farm vegetables on what is currently permafrost in the northern hemisphere it will be big. When we have land covered in forest between Australia and PNG it will be big, but even that a would not be more extreme than what has naturally happened in recent fluctuation. There is nothing unusual going on at the moment. The climate change myths are among the biggest of modern civilisation.

 

[Knobby22]

I read a New Scientist magazine article last night. China are building 2 special oil ships to travel the arctic. The ships are ice breakers but they can only work if the artic keeps melting, so its a big call by them.

The aim is to get oil from the mineral tar sands from Canada to China over a shorter route. It will be very profitable if it succeeds.