I hope so because not much went by the plan so far...
HOG - Hawkley Oil and Gas
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I hope so because not much went by the plan so far...
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Not a good look for Soros 202. Still stuffed up and no certainty that it will actually produce.
I believe Soros 201 is also declining in production so teh savinsg from the commissioning of the gas plant will be essential.
I believe Soros 201 is also declining in production so teh savinsg from the commissioning of the gas plant will be essential.
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Seems like a large scale bailout of HOG at the moment. SP down to 8.7c. The (alleged) fact that it is still producing gas and oil and making a profit appears lost.
IMO the company needs to provide an update on current production rates and returns to offer some assurance that it will stay solvent.
IMO the company needs to provide an update on current production rates and returns to offer some assurance that it will stay solvent.
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Seems like a large scale bailout of HOG at the moment. SP down to 8.7c. The (alleged) fact that it is still producing gas and oil and making a profit appears lost.
IMO the company needs to provide an update on current production rates and returns to offer some assurance that it will stay solvent.
Is it possible that 202 is not only a failure but has stuffed the pressure in the reservoir or something and sabotaged 201? There must be something to the current share valuation. Non-holder, rode this dog from 40c to 15c, thank christ I got out.
You are right, Basilio. The the last histogram of production that I have seen was up to 30 June 2012 (this was in the last annual report) - it showed a declining trend. There were then the average daily Q4 2012 figures in the 31 Jan 2013 report. If you plot those figures on the histogram and extrapolate the trends to the present you get about a 50% decline from the peak flows of early 2011. And I recall mention of a bigger choke on recent flows than on the early ones. Notwithstanding the mitigating factor of the temporary slowdown at the third party gas plant, they need to get something out of S 202, and soon.
I've been out of HOG since 14c, but still keep it on the watch list - you never know, something good might still happen!
Well i am not amused at all by this it looks verry amaturistic to me first a photo with a wrong date etc.
Mr. Paul Morgan please return you did well some years ago.
202 looks to be in trouble and this does not bode well at all for increases in production in the short term. The recent Ann on the 18/3/13 did mention something about they believe that 201 and 202 may not be in direct communication so I don't believe that 202 is affecting the production rates from 201. 202 did flow initially on a 6 mm choke befor problems with the well, just not sure if they can clean it out or if there is something else going on like lack of formation pressure? Other than this well, my immediate concern is the time it takes to drill another well and boost production although 201 looks to be producing ok to me. So if 202 is a fizzer, 203 might take another 6 months or more to complete.
Frustrating very frustrating.
Frustrating very frustrating.
I have complied the attached chart from reported company data - it shows more obviously the rapid decline in production from Soro 201.
The minimal effect of increasing the choke from 9mm to 10mm in Dec 2011 is apparent - if anything, after an initial spurt, it has accelerated the rate of decline! The original choke size was 8mm - it went up to 9mm about Sept 2011.
In the absence of any production data for 2013, and with the Dec 2012 production merged with the Q4 2012 figures, the last four months have been inferred by extrapolation - where are the monthly reports that the company used to put out when the well was churning it out?
The minimal effect of increasing the choke from 9mm to 10mm in Dec 2011 is apparent - if anything, after an initial spurt, it has accelerated the rate of decline! The original choke size was 8mm - it went up to 9mm about Sept 2011.
In the absence of any production data for 2013, and with the Dec 2012 production merged with the Q4 2012 figures, the last four months have been inferred by extrapolation - where are the monthly reports that the company used to put out when the well was churning it out?
Nice post, thanks wrongun. Not trying to doubt your figures but in the qty update in jan 13, soro 201 produced 4.1 mcfgpd avge for the Dec qtr and in the gas plant commissioning Ann in march, they stated an avge of 3.6 on a 10mm choke prior to connecting to the new plant so the decline figures might not be so bad??
Regular updates would be nice to see again, no arguments there.
Regular updates would be nice to see again, no arguments there.
Thanks Skivvy
I've replotted with 4.1 for Nov ("average" month for Q4 2012 - I had used 4.0), and 3.6 for March 2013. No March figures for condensate, so I've twisted that line up a bit to follow the trend in gas production.
It's still declining.
Cheers
I've replotted with 4.1 for Nov ("average" month for Q4 2012 - I had used 4.0), and 3.6 for March 2013. No March figures for condensate, so I've twisted that line up a bit to follow the trend in gas production.
It's still declining.
Cheers
Wrongun, do you think the third party gas plant issues also impacted the production figures from soro 201? In my research last night the company did mention that over the last few months the third party gas plant restricted their output due to mtce issues and downtime at the production facility. I guess next week we may find out as the company were planning to increase the choke from 8mm to 10mm on the new 100 percent owned plant as per their Ann on march 18th? Would be nice to get a figure of high 3's on a 10 mm choke and some pos news on 202!!!!!
Fingers crossed you are right skivvy!
You could be right Skivvy - time will tell. Let's hope they publish the April figures promptly, so we can see what's really happening with S 201's productivity.
I gleaned from the earlier reports that there was a maintenance period for the third party gas plant from 9 April 2012 until 17 July 2012. This hardly shows up in the monthly production over that period.
The last month on my chart was for the 10mm choke.
I had missed the fact that there were still issues with the third party gas plant "over the last 3 months". I wonder how significant they have been? The April production will answer that question.
In the meantime I'm still seeing a declining revenue stream from S 201, no revenue from S 202 (costs yes), $2.6m costs for the Stoliarovska licence and $4.8m in the bank as at 31 Dec 2012. It would be interesting to know if they can get through this without a CR.
I gleaned from the earlier reports that there was a maintenance period for the third party gas plant from 9 April 2012 until 17 July 2012. This hardly shows up in the monthly production over that period.
The last month on my chart was for the 10mm choke.
I had missed the fact that there were still issues with the third party gas plant "over the last 3 months". I wonder how significant they have been? The April production will answer that question.
In the meantime I'm still seeing a declining revenue stream from S 201, no revenue from S 202 (costs yes), $2.6m costs for the Stoliarovska licence and $4.8m in the bank as at 31 Dec 2012. It would be interesting to know if they can get through this without a CR.
CR is on my mind as well, not the best time to go to the market for funding however. Definitely need cashflow to come from 202 real soon!
Interesting trading on the sp today, a lot of bot trading for small parcels but still some larger parcels went through as well, missed a buying opportunity today so will wait and see how things go next week.
Interesting trading on the sp today, a lot of bot trading for small parcels but still some larger parcels went through as well, missed a buying opportunity today so will wait and see how things go next week.
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The announcement on Soros 202 was pretty sad. No production from the Upper 18 so they are now looking at some value from the Lower 18. But this will take at least 2 months or probably 5 months in HOG time.
So the SP continues to tank and is now .053 valuing the company at $15m.
The upside ? Soros 201 is still producing and with the advent of the HOG owned gasifer revenue should be up 30%.
I really wish management would make a clear statement about production and revenue and hopefully provide assurance that it is still solvent.
http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...Type=0&submit=Search§ion=summary&sortBy=0
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I had great hopes for the flying pig when it first burst on the scene. I have long since downsized my holdings but it still irks me to see the last bits steadily decimated.
So the SP continues to tank and is now .053 valuing the company at $15m.
The upside ? Soros 201 is still producing and with the advent of the HOG owned gasifer revenue should be up 30%.
I really wish management would make a clear statement about production and revenue and hopefully provide assurance that it is still solvent.
http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...Type=0&submit=Search§ion=summary&sortBy=0
_____________________________________________________________
I had great hopes for the flying pig when it first burst on the scene. I have long since downsized my holdings but it still irks me to see the last bits steadily decimated.
Basilio,
Agree the Ann on soro 202 was very disappointing, the upper b18 just doesnt have commercial rates in this location. I have to say the lower b18 looks to have some issues with water penetration from behind the well casing and it is unproven as well. I am very doubtful that this well will add any value to the company. I hope I am wrong? The company will remain solvent in my opinion and with an update on production figures from 201 overdue, we need to see how they are going to move this little pig forward???
Some positive facts:
No debt
Own their own gas plant capable of rates of 11mmcfgpd currently and up to 90 with expansion
Low number of shares on issue relatively
100 percent own & operate sorochynska and stoliarovska production licences, add in Chernetska exploration acreage
Negative facts
One producing well on decline
Doubt over 202 producing
Drilling takes a long time to complete
Need additional cashflow / funds to ramp up drilling
Soro acreage needs further seismic analysis to understand the geology
Where to from here, down until some positive news!
Agree the Ann on soro 202 was very disappointing, the upper b18 just doesnt have commercial rates in this location. I have to say the lower b18 looks to have some issues with water penetration from behind the well casing and it is unproven as well. I am very doubtful that this well will add any value to the company. I hope I am wrong? The company will remain solvent in my opinion and with an update on production figures from 201 overdue, we need to see how they are going to move this little pig forward???
Some positive facts:
No debt
Own their own gas plant capable of rates of 11mmcfgpd currently and up to 90 with expansion
Low number of shares on issue relatively
100 percent own & operate sorochynska and stoliarovska production licences, add in Chernetska exploration acreage
Negative facts
One producing well on decline
Doubt over 202 producing
Drilling takes a long time to complete
Need additional cashflow / funds to ramp up drilling
Soro acreage needs further seismic analysis to understand the geology
Where to from here, down until some positive news!
