HOG - Hawkley Oil and Gas

trendline89 · 20 February 2012

RNI said:
Great to see the Chets results out today which have finally given us hope with the proof there are hydrocarbons down there in B24/25 and possibly in B26 as well.....

'the B26 formation was also interpred to be gas saturated'

They are taking a cased hole test to obtain..... 'better understanding of the productivity of the reservoirs'. These results should be out (hopefully) by mid April and will help t identify areas with the largest amounts of gas and equally important those areas where the permeability is such to enable them to produce commercially, so thank goodness for that good news after all the doom and gloom and the share price at a shockingly low price.

Yes, exactly basilio...'First in best dressed'.... is hopefully correct. Will be great to see the share price gradually start to head North again instead of South, and soon I think.

Also Poverty, you are correct regarding the need for them to keep the local drilling crew. They employ the locals as they not only know the local area, but just as importantly, to keep the peace with the Ukraine Government, which is still known to be at times very difficult to work with. and there is still corruption occurring in that country. This at least helps them to be accepted and they are seen to be helping Ukraine by giving employment to it's people.

Anyway, good news at last, just when we all had accepted (reluctantly) that Chets was a duster!!!!

Nearby wells has shown there is gas in the region but with very low flow rates. It would not surprise me that this well too will have a low flow rate and won't do much to the SP.

Dinipants · 23 February 2012

trendline89 said:
Nearby wells has shown there is gas in the region but with very low flow rates. It would not surprise me that this well too will have a low flow rate and won't do much to the SP.

Yeah true. Probably not gonna be much happening until new SOR in August .

McCoy Pauley · 27 February 2012

Dinipants said:
Yeah true. Probably not gonna be much happening until new SOR in August .

Except the CEO, Chairman and a non-executive director resigning with immediate effect, as announced to the market this morning.

The founding CEO and another founder of the company step in as CEO and Executive Chairman respectively. Both will be based in London.

Seems like a coup was executed at the board level.

basilio · 27 February 2012

McCoy Pauley said:
Except the CEO, Chairman and a non-executive director resigning with immediate effect, as announced to the market this morning.

The founding CEO and another founder of the company step in as CEO and Executive Chairman respectively. Both will be based in London.

Seems like a coup was executed at the board level.

Well it certainly can't hurt their SP ! In retrospect this was an obvious and necessary decision. There just hasn't been sufficient confidence or promotion of HOG in the last 8 months with the result that the SP has been trashed. I think the fundamentals of current production and longer term success are still there.

Given that the original founders hold large slabs of the company they would want to see a quick reversal of the SP. I think there will be some good rebounds in the next few months.

poverty · 27 February 2012

Great news! If only we could do the same with the Labour/Green government.

nchardon · 27 February 2012

They mention dual listing HOG to open it up to other international investors, what usually happens to a company's share price when this happens?

basilio · 27 February 2012

Good jump in HOG today on the back of the management changes. I think it has been way under priced for months and on current reserves and production should be at least in the mid 20's. The last stocker broker analysis on Feb 7th suggested 31c as a 12 month target and identified the current value of the Soroch reserves as 24c a share.

There will also be a reserves upgrade by the end of the first quarter and if it is as good as suggested (see announcement today ) there should be another boost to the SP.

http://www.hawkleyoilandgas.com//me.../DJ-Carmichael-Research-Report-7-Feb-2012.pdf

basilio · 27 February 2012

nchardon said:
They mention dual listing HOG to open it up to other international investors, what usually happens to a company's share price when this happens?

I imagine that the promotion and launch of the company will attract fresh investors. At this stage the company has proven reserves and a profitable well and yet is selling at less than its original IPO ! I believe it will force up the SP. (which is obviously in the interest of the majority shareholders)

nchardon · 21 March 2012

Share price up to .22 today I was almost in the green for the first time in many months perhaps we might see a trend up now instead of down which has been the case for oh so long, might load up on a few more shares if it dips down tomorrow.

ChrisJH · 23 March 2012

Holding steady at 0.21. Not quite in the green myself, but just about What's the time frame for things happening at HOG over the next little while? When are we going to see some action that will affect the share price (either up or down). My trigger finger is on the sell button, but the way it has recovered over the last few weeks since just a change in management I wonder if it is possible for it to return to 0.30-0.50 this year at all.

basilio · 23 March 2012

ChrisJH said:
Holding steady at 0.21. Not quite in the green myself, but just about What's the time frame for things happening at HOG over the next little while? When are we going to see some action that will affect the share price (either up or down). My trigger finger is on the sell button, but the way it has recovered over the last few weeks since just a change in management I wonder if it is possible for it to return to 0.30-0.50 this year at all.

HOG is a funny stock. It burst out of the blocks in 2010-11 with an excellent first drill which in fact has ensured its survival. Great start.

Unfortunately through 2011 it just seemed to slow down in terms of marketing its potential as well as completing the second drill. It really does take far to long to get anywhere at the moment.

Given the 3 fold increase in reserves in the Soroch field it was way oversold at 13-14c. Just ridiculous. The change of management has put some ginger into the stock.

Coming up there are imminent reserve upgrades and the ongoing 2nd Soroch drill which will/should improve profitability. These should be worth another 20c a share

But to really fly(IMHO) I believe HOG has to successfully complete at least 2-3 drills a year. Otherwise it will just drag on.

mr. jeff · 23 March 2012

Hi Basilio,

I hear what you're saying but I think there is a change in tempo underway if only because of the oil price.

This is a 3 year chart with weekly bars. You can see the volume picked up at the end of the downtrend, and further that the downtrend has been clearly broken.

Then looking at the 3 month daily chart, you can see a good pickup in volume and the good break up that has occurred.

This is not yet completely confirmed but so far it is looking good and has shown strength with these down days.

I entered on the break of 19c and am waiting for further action.

ChrisJH · 27 March 2012

basilio said:
Coming up there are imminent reserve upgrades and the ongoing 2nd Soroch drill which will/should improve profitability. These should be worth another 20c a share

This isn't a definite though, is it?

After the last drill and they didn't find what they wanted, the share price dropped 25+%.

Nice momentum today, btw, though.

basilio · 27 March 2012

ChrisJH said:
This isn't a definite though, is it?

After the last drill and they didn't find what they wanted, the share price dropped 25+%.

Nice momentum today, btw, though.

The Soroch drill is into a known field and will be increasing the amount of oil and gas they can sell. I think there is a 99% plus certainty of finding the target.

Of course there are always risks with the drilling side which can't be discounted.

The reserves upgrade and 3D seismic studies should also sharpen up the volume/ accessibility of oil and gas deposits and identify (hopefully) the best locations to drill.

I'm still not happy with the rate of exploration.

nchardon · 28 March 2012

A nice rise today, I am finally in the green and hopefully the sp still has a way to go, reading the report today 100million revenue predicted 1st quarter 2014 sounds good, I definitely won't be selling this just yet

basilio · 28 March 2012

It will be interesting to see if the first Chets drill results in some actual production of gas/oil. Todays report says there is imminent news and notes the oil traces in the drill. It could be a nice little surprise.

I noted that they were anticipating 3-4 drills a year from 2013-4. I can't quite see how they intend to fund this effort or source the hardware.

Anyway at 24c I think HOG is still under priced on it's current production and reserves let along any upgrades. And from steadily increasing buying pressure other investors are taking the same view.

I have posted a link to todays investor presentation.

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=hog&f=pdf

Dinipants · 4 April 2012

Haha yes...except that.... :

Good to see SP heading north. Eager to see how drilling goes

nchardon · 4 April 2012

Dinipants said:
Haha yes...except that.... :

Good to see SP heading north. Eager to see how drilling goes

Being awarded a 20 year production license, and now the ability to build their own gas processing plant is excellent news! The opening of their third well in a proven reserve in August/September I only see the SP heading north from here! Woot!

nchardon · 5 April 2012

Whats HOG going to do next Tuesday go up or down? I wish I knew the answer I would be a rich man

Starcraftmazter · 5 April 2012

nchardon said:
Whats HOG going to do next Tuesday go up or down? I wish I knew the answer I would be a rich man

Don't get too excited too early. HOG has had a very nice run up on strong volume, however since the Fed minutes were released earlier this week, gold and oil have gone down somewhat, and this could well signal a reversal in HOG.

Right now, HOG needs to get past the 30c high reached last October on good volume if it wants to continue the rally. If it does, prospects will definitely be better

HOG - Hawkley Oil and Gas

trendline89

Dinipants

McCoy Pauley

Get out of here Budweiser!

basilio

poverty

nchardon

basilio

basilio

nchardon

ChrisJH

basilio

mr. jeff

ChrisJH

basilio

nchardon

basilio

Dinipants

nchardon

nchardon

Starcraftmazter

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